Tour de La Provence 2022 – Overall Preview

By @EchelonsHub

The racing in France continues, as we have 4 days of good competition ahead in Provence in an edition that provides opportunities for the time-trialists, climber and sprinters, possibly more.

The Route

The opening day features a small prologue, pan-flat so no real differences will be made, but I never mind a prologue to be on the menu as they become more and more rare nowadays.

Stage two is almost as pan-flat as the prologue. Wind can be dangerous as the Mediterranean will be in sight for a lot of the day, it’s the main sprinter’s opportunity.

Another day for the sprinters, but puncheurs may have a small chance in the finale into Manosque.

Queen stage. No Mont Ventoux this year so the race will tackle it’s neighbor Montagne du Lure, good enough to make nice differences and decide the race.

Weather for the Week

Wind is forecasted for stage 1 so we are indeed likely to have a treat of a day. As for the rest of the week there will be some cold, some wind, possible some rain in the final day, but nothing too meaningful.

GC Contenders

It will be a very interesting battle. On paper, the final stage will be decisive and the one day that’ll make the differences, however the second day of racing in the crosswinds may cut the chances of many of fighting for the win. Riders like Harm Vanhoucke or Geoffrey Bouchard/Aurélien Paret-Peintre don’t particularly have the experience so they’ll hope it won’t be a crucial day, Movistar would also need to as they come with several riders capable of leading. Ivan Sosa, the defending champion, is exactly the kind of rider that would struggle, but the team will want as many options as possible for the final stage as they have the team for it, with Matteo Jorgenson, Antonio Pedrero, Gorka Izagirre and Abner González who can realistically be in the battle too.

Before Sosa you had Nairo Quintana winning the race and he’s back once again to try and take the overall, he will be up there as long as the form is present. Richard Carapaz is another headliner but suffering the effects of the Bessèges crash and an apparently slow start to the season the lead of INEOS may fall on Eddie Dunbar, and the other main favourite is Julian Alaphilippe who is starting off his season here. 

Groupama have Michael Storer, and there are some riders who’ve got good form and racing in the legs like Trek’s Giulio Ciccone and Antwan Tolhoek who just came from Valencia, and Pierre Latour who came from Bessèges, have all got solid results and will be targeting more here.

The Sprinters

As for the sprinters they may see both of their opportunities cut for different reasons, however they must be taken into account. From the field of sprinters who can climb you have two clear names visible one being Davide Ballerini winner of half the stages of the last edition and Ethan Hayter who comes in opening his season with Ineos. A last-minute entry though, Bryan Coquard is on great form and may also play a part in these stages. Andrea Vendrame, on a slightly lower level, also fits within this list.

On the pure sprinter field who should only have one stage in sight we have Israel’s Rudy Barbier and Lorenzo Manzin as the headliners, we may also see a surprise from the likes of Thomas Boudat, Luca Mozzato or John Degenkolb.

Prediction Time

⭐⭐⭐ Alaphilippe, Quintana

⭐⭐Dunbar, Carapaz, Latour, Tolhoek, Ciccone 

⭐ Sosa, Pedrero, Vanhoucke, Paret-Peintre, Storer, Jorgenson

I think Julian Alaphilippe will emerge winner from the race, the prologue will see him ahead of his rivals likely, and the final climb shouldn’t be hard enough for him to be distanced if he enters the season the way he did in the past few years.

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