Tour de San Luis 2016 – Stage 6 Preview
By David Hunter
La Toma – Merlo 159.5km
For the first time in a while, we are left with a very exciting finish to the Tour de San Luis. By this point, the GC is usually crucially shaped and this stage is the icing on the cake. Not in 2016! Thanks to the TTT and the way the main riders tackled Amago, everything is still up for grabs.
The stage is dominated by the final climb. It’s actually three climbs in one and you should remember it from previous editions. The riders used to stop at Mirador del Sol but the organisers decided to lengthen it by around 8km and the new finish was tested in 2015. That day, it was Kleber Ramos, teammate of Dani Diaz, who took the stage. Crucially, the gaps were not big, but that was mainly due to how they climbed the mountain. I would expect some bigger gaps in 2016.
The GC is delicately balanced:-
- Sepulveda
- Dayer Quintana 0:03
- Contreras 0:38
- Nairo Quintana 0:42
- Lopez 0:51
- Villalobos 1:06
- Acevedo 1:09
Movistar have the numerical advantage, with two riders in the top four.That should put them at an advantage, as Sepulveda won’t have many teammates left to chase attackers. He will heavily rely upon Delio Fernandez and will hope he lasts a long way into the climb. Sepulveda might think that attack is the best form of defensive. This strategy will only work if he’s the strongest rider. He certainly looked great on Amago but as we didn’t see what happened in the Nairo group, I’m still not sure if he’s the strongest.
The enormous crash has left many question marks over the riders. Movistar lost Dani Moreno from the top 6 but I have heard that he is okay. Nairo also came down in the crash but wasn’t badly affected. It sounds like Dayer was unaffected by the huge pile-up. I haven’t heard any word on Lopez but it sounds bad news for Contreras. He will not be able to compete, even if he does start the stage. The race leader, Sepulveda, required a bandage to his leg and cut his knee but it didn’t look too serious.
In theory, the strongest riders are Nairo and Superman Lopez, but both need to make up time. Lopez has a fierce uphill sprint, if he gets away with Nairo, he can leave his attack late. Nairo is left in a delicate position, as his brother gets the chance to lead the team. Whatever happens, Movistar will be disappointed if they don’t take the GC given their position of strength.
The climb is a monster 14.45km at 7.6%, with a maximum of 20.7%. The easiest part of the climb is the opening 3.5km, but that leads into 10.7% for 1km. What follows is a mixture of 7, 8 and 9% sections, before the challenging finale. This is where the race should be decided as the riders face 2.4km at 9.7%, the climb then flattens out for the final 600m. This is a monster!
The surprises of the Amago climb were Janier Acevedo and Roman Villalobos. Most of us will know of Acevedo, a hugely talented climber. He had a terrible couple of years with Cannondale but has returned to Jamis. Thankfully he seems to have already found his form again. It really is typical of Cannondale to not get the best out of a rider. Such a waste!
Villalobos is a 25 year old Costa Rican. He has performed well in races in Guatemala and Costa Rica but this is his breakthrough ride. It’s always great to see a relatively unknown rider excelling against some of the best in the world. These two riders cannot be underestimated but they will struggle to get the same amount of freedom afforded to them during stage 4.
I hope you’re already for a fascinating battle between Sepulveda, Movistar and Lopez. This is hard to call!
Prediction Time
The strength of Movistar cannot be ignored, but I can’t decide who wins. Due to his finish, Lopez will take the win and Dayer the GC. Nairo will play the role of nice big brother! However, if Nairo is feeling sore after the crash, Lopez will be too strong for Dayer.
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