Tour Down Under 2017 – Overall Preview

By David Hunter

It’s official people, cycling is well and truly back! We return to the Tour Down Under, in what promises to be another action packed edition.

Stages

Stage 1

The race opens with a sprinter stage in Lyndoch. The early KOM point will be keenly contested, the winner will be on the podium at the end of the stage. This stage should end in a big sprint.

Stage 2

It might only be the 2nd stage, but this day will go a long way to settling the GC. We have our usual lap circuit in Stirling, but instead of finishing there, we head to Paracombe. This climb was introduced to the race in 2015 and was a huge success. Can Rohan Dennis repeat his stage win? This looks like being a stage to remember, maybe the hardest ever in the history of the tour.

Stage 3

We return to Victor Harbour, but instead of the challenging finish, we get a relatively easy run for home. The lap circuit does feature some lumps, but this should be easy for the sprinters. It’s another chance for the quicks to battle for the stage.

Stage 4

Looks like a good day for the breakaway. Breaks are a rare breed in the TDU, riders have to prepared for a long day in the sun. If not a break, this is another sprint finish.

Stage 5

It’s Willunga day and the GC will be settled. Can Richie Porte make it four consecutive wins?

Stage 6

The race ends with the usual criterium in the centre of Adelaide. One last chance for the sprinters to claim some glory.

Bonus Seconds

Due to the close nature of the stages, bonus seconds always have a huge impact on the race, usually to the benefit of Simon Gerrans. With 10, 6 and 4 available for each stage, just one stage win puts a GC rider into a great position. During each stage there are two sprint points, each giving 3, 2 and 1 seconds. This is another point where Orica benefit and some GC riders suffer. No doubt, bonus seconds will again have an impact on the race.

Weather

Stages are short in the TDU, but the sun makes them seem much longer. Riders coming from Europe have little time to prepare as they head straight into the baking heat. That is one of the reasons the Australians do so well in this race.

Double Trouble

Having two GC riders is a huge benefit. This allows teams to make tactical moves during the two crucial stages. This is exactly how Rohan Dennis won the race in 2015, forming an unbreakable partnership with Cadel Evans. Some teams are here with two cards to play, keep an eye out for Orica(Gerrans & Chaves), Sky(Henao & Thomas), Etixx(Vakoc & Brambilla) and BMC(Porte & Dennis).

Contenders

Simon Gerrans – the lack of a tough sprinting stage is very bad news for Gerrans. We have seen that Gerro cannot match Richie Porte on Willunga Hill and I doubt he’ll stay with him in Paracombe. Much of his bid for GC will depend on bonus seconds during stages and if he wins stage 3. You can never write off Gerrans in this race, but this year will be harder than ever. If Gerro struggles, Orica have Chaves on hand to take over the fight for the overall.

Michael Woods – 5th here last year, including 3rd on Willunga, and was a brilliant result for the Canadian. He’s been out training in the Adelaide Hills since January 3rd, so he is ready for the race. Before heading to Australia, he was simulating the type of effort required back in Girona, 6 minutes of full power at 9%. It will be interesting to see if Woods can follow up his impressive result from 2016.

Jay McCarthy – this marks his first race for Bora and I’m sure he’ll be starting the season well. McCarthy impressed in the Aussie road race, looking very strong in the morning break. He was 4th here in 2016, after suffering a bit on Willunga. That experience will serve him well and I doubt we’ll see him getting dropped this year. He also possesses a fast kick, so watch out for him in the intermediate sprints.

Richie Porte – quite a lot of pressure sits on the shoulders of Richie Porte. Having won on Willunga for three consecutive seasons, it is amazing that he is still to win this race. The Paracombe stage is great news for him, he was strong on it back in 2015. He needs to ensure that he doesn’t start the Willunga stage with too much time to make up, like he has in previous years. BMC send a strong team to support him, especially Rohan Dennis. It all looks good for Richie.

Sergio Henao – the profile of the race looks wonderful for the Colombian. There are very few riders better on the steep slopes, so the Paracombe stage will be a big target for him. He is excellent on Willunga, just not as good as Porte! Supported by a very strong team, including Geraint Thomas, I expect Henao to be fighting for the overall crown. Could he be the first non-Aussie rider to win since Tom-Jelte Slagter?

Domenico Pozzovivo – the little Italian is a big fan of this race, this will be his third consecutive appearance. With a 6th and 7th place to his name, he’ll be delighted to see two GC days. The lack of a sprint means that Pozzovivo will rarely win races like this, but he is sure to finish in the top 10.

Robert Gesink – what Gesink will we get? Last time he was here, he finished 6th on GC back in 2014, including 4th place on Willunga. He has the power required to do well in these short but intensive climbs, plus he finished 2016 in wonderful form. Could be a dark horse for the podium.

Diego Ulissi – the Italian lines up with the new UAE Abu Dhabi team and this is his type of race. He was 2nd on Willunga in 2014(3rd on GC) and 4th in 2016. The last season was another good year for the Italian, including two stage wins in the Giro. This race is probably the only world tour race he can win, he was very close in 2014. The former winner of Giro dell’Emilia will love the stage to Paracombe, a good result there should set up a charge at the title.

Watch Out For

The Aussies! We all know that the Aussies love this race. They are already well into their summer, which puts the Aussie riders at an advantage over their european counterparts. The combination of better training and hot temperatures combine to make this a race dominated by local riders. In the last three years, Aussies have won 13 out of 18 stages, including the ochre jersey each time. Last year, every single stage was won by an Aussie rider.

Don’t be surprised to see the well known Aussies plus Cam Meyer, Nathan Earle, Chris Hamilton, Lachlan Morton and Lucas Hamilton challenging for stage honours.

Prediction Time

Poor old Richie, I think he’s going to be disappointed again. As he cannot pick up bonus seconds in intermediate sprints, the pressure is on him to win stages. The Paracombe climb is hard but almost impossible to drop all your rivals, it just isn’t long enough. He could well find himself more than 10 seconds down to his main rival heading into Willunga. As we saw in 2015, the winner of the Paracombe stage will be very hard to beat for the ochre jersey. I’ll go with a climber who can also sprint, it’s Sergio Henao for me.

The Colombian is a perfect pick for this race. He has a strong team, doesn’t mind the sun, can sprint and climbs well. The only thing going against him is that he isn’t Australian!

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