Tour Down Under 2017 – Stage 4 Preview

By David Hunter

Norwood – Campbelltown 149.5km

We return to Campbelltown, scene of one of the best breakaways wins in the history of the race. In 2015, a strong 4 man group established itself in the opening stage of the week. In the break were Jack Bobridge, Luke Durbridge, Maxim Belkov and Lieuwe Westra, with Bobridge taking the win.

The stage isn’t the exact same as 2015, but the final 30km are. Just like yesterday, the riders climb from the gun, before coming to the only KOM point of the day, Checker Hill Road. The climb is far too early to have any significant impact on the race, and it makes it too difficult for any team to hold the race together for the first sprint point.

Finale

This year, the organisers have used a picture that makes the finish much harder than it really is.

See what I mean! Compare it to a picture of the same finish used in 2015.

The final 25km is perfect for the breakaway. It features a very fast descent and constantly turing roads, making it very difficult for the bunch to see the men up the road. The final corner is at 1.1km, before a long finishing straight. With 300m remaining, the road does kick up, but with the peloton hitting it with speed, it shouldn’t be enough to hurt the sprinters. Saying that, it does give a chance to some of the puncheurs.

Breakaway Hopes

Just like yesterday, I think the break has a good chance. With Caleb Ewan clearly better than everyone else, most teams will look towards Orica to chase the break. BMC will be obliged to do the early work, but Orica will be expected to help too. The only other team that should help is Bora, as they have Peter Sagan. With only a couple of teams working for the sprint, it’s another good day to make the early break.

Contenders

Luke Durbridge – everything I said about him yesterday is the same for today. Turbo Durbo is in fine form and was 3rd here in 2015. He would love to set the record straight.

Thomas De Gendt – he’s joint on points with Porte for the KOM jersey and knows he has to make this break, if he wants to win it. Such a brilliant breakaway rider, making the move on two consecutive days isn’t something that will worry the Belgian.

Damian Howson – it’s not always your plan A that works. Durbridge will be plan A for Orica, but they’ll also have a plan B. Howson is one of those incredibly selfless riders, always working for others. It would be great to see him getting some freedom.

Caleb Ewan – will be very hard to beat in any sprint. With two stages and the People’s Choice Classic already in the bag, the other sprinters are sensing that they are fighting for second place.

Peter Sagan – the uphill kick is perfect for the world champion. It might just be enough to help him get close to King Caleb. I think Bora will again work for Sagan, before giving Bennett another chance on Sunday.

Edward Theuns – his lead-out was very good today. He seems to be quickly developing a good understanding with Mads Pedersen and Koen de Kort. Eddy was frustrated that Team Sky chose to drift across the road, rather than hugging the inside of the corner. If they did, the result would have been different.

Prediction Time

Ewan is looking too good and that will put off the other teams. I think the break wins and I’ll stick with my pick of Luke Durbridge. Over to you Turbo Durbo!

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