Tour of Oman 2017 – Stage 4 Preview

By David Hunter

Yiti – Ministry of Tourism 118km

This is another of the organiser’s favourite stages, featuring heavily since the race began. At just 118km, it promises to be a very fast day.

The peloton have some challenges in the opening section of the race. Normally these hills would be too early in the race to have any impact, but you just never know in a stage of this length. After 37km of calm, we then begin the Bousher al Amerat repeats. Basically, the riders just go up and down the highway, but it’s more exciting than it sounds! They only have to do the most difficult ascent on one occasion, it is 3.4km at 8.8%. That means two climbs of 3.2km at 6.8%. The final climb crests with 13km remaining. GC riders will test each other on the second ascent.

Tactics

This stage sees a mix of tactics, as GC riders and stage hunters will be gunning for glory. It is possible for a team like Astana to split the race early on, it’s the type of tactic they love. Once into the al Amerat climbs, the GC riders have to decide if they really want to go full gas.

In the background, breakaway riders will try their luck and the puncheurs will be praying for a calm day, so they can sprint for stage glory. It’s a day where anything can happen.

Last year, a group of 40 riders approached the finish together, but the stage came after the Green Mountain. In 2015, the stage was cancelled due to the heat. Back in 2014, Sagan won from Uran and Nibali. That day they did the climb four times.

Contenders

Rui Costa – two second places have put him into a great position on GC. He knows that he possess a faster sprint than the other climbers, so he’ll be happy if it’s a tough day in the saddle. If a group of 10 come to the line together, he has a great chance of winning.

Greg Van Avermaet – I get the feeling that Greg is here to get condition for the classics. He will be on domestique duties for Ben Hermans, but I won’t write off his stage chances.

Nathan Haas – didn’t deliver today and might just turn his attention to helping Kudus. He would have a decent chance of winning this stage, but Kudus will need his help on the final climbs. We shall see if he gets the chance to sprint for glory.

Romain Bardet – will be a little worried that he has lost time to Rui Costa and Jakob Fuglsang. I get the impression the GC battle starts now for the Frenchman. He has a very strong team to help him in this stage, with Naesen, Gougeard, Dupont and Frank capable of making the race hard for the other teams.

Alexander Kristoff – needs a slow day. I doubt he’ll get it.

Dimitri Peyskens – what an impressive race for the Belgian youngster. Riding for the new team, Veranclassic, he is really taking his chance in the big leagues. He is a rider that has a big future ahead of him and might just slip under the radar here.

Alexey Lutsenko – most likely to be on domestique duty, but I do expect big things from him this season. He is as strong as a bull and will be put to work for Fuglsang and Aru. Given the team of Astana, they have the ability to make this a very difficult race.

Jakob Fuglsang – should be ready to take advantage of any Astana craziness! Doesn’t have a great sprint, but he’s clearly riding well this week. He will want to try and go solo on the way down to the finishing line.

Sonny Colbrelli – of all the stages this week, this is the one that suits him the most. Two problems for the Italian: the heat and fast racing. If we see plenty of attacks on the climbs, he’ll really struggle to stay with the front group. If we see a steady climb, he will be the favourite to take the sprint. If the stage plays out the same as 2016, he wins.

Prediction Time

As the stage comes before the Green Mountain, I think we’ll see a GC battle. The puncheurs can forget about it, we’ll see a small group of climbers fighting it out for the stage win. Given the numbers Astana have, I think they’ll take the win. That means I’m going with Jakob Fuglsang.

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