Tour of Poland 2015 – Stage 5 Preview
By David Hunter
Nowy Sacz – Zakopane 223km
The GC battle starts here. The riders face a long day in the saddle, with may challenges along the way. It’s another lap circuit, but this isn’t your normal route around a city. The circuit features 3 climbs:-
The opening climb is the Glodowka. It’s 8km at 3%, but that does include a small descent. The climb is not hard, despite it’s length. The other two climbs are harder.
The Zab, is 4km at 6.3%. The opening kilometre is easy, the next three will start to test the riders, especially with a 11% ramp. The Gubalowka, is down as being 4.2km, but that includes an easy final kilometre. If you remove that, it’s 3km at 7.7%. It also features a ramp of 18%. This climb is hard enough to cause some splits.
Due to where the riders enter the circuit, they only do the easy climb, twice. The harder climbs are covered three times each. These climbs also come in quick succession of each other, with just a small descent in between. That changes it from two small climbs, into a long, demanding climb. The finishing line is 13km from the top of the final climb.
As you can see, the last 3km rises fairly gently(2%). The final kilometre is a little steeper and after a long day in the saddle, the final three kilometres will not be easy.
The route is not one for the alpine climbers, but more the puncheurs. It will be the first indication of who is going to challenge for the GC. The big riders are Kwiatkowski, Izagirre, Kiserlovski, Aru, Lutsenko, Henao, Kiryienka, Niemiec, Ulissi, Zakarin, VDB, Moser, Formolo, Riblon, Reichenbach, Denifl and Rebellin.
The finish and in fact the whole stage looks custom made for the World Champion. The Polish organisers were obviously keen to ensure another Polish winner, after Majka won in 2014. He is the quickest finisher of the GC riders, by a considerable margin. The only rider who will concern him, is Diego Ulissi. Etixx bring a strong squad to help him:- Golas, Bouet, Brambilla, Vakoc and Verona will all be able to help him, deep into the stage. The loss of De La Cruz is significant though, it certainly weakens them.
BMC don’t have an outstanding rider for the GC, but they are a big concern. They are full of attacking riders:- Atapuma, Burghardt, De Marchi, Dillier, Hermans, Moinard, Teuns and Velits. All of these riders are good enough climbers, to make the crucial selection. Their quality should see them outnumber the other teams, giving them an advantage. Keep an eye out for Dylan Teuns. The performances of other young riders has left him in the shadows, but this kid is a superstar in the making. This stage is very good for him, but he’ll probably have to work for his team leaders.
The profile of the stage is perfect for the breakaway riders. It’s very easy for the peloton to misjudge the catch and it’s a good break for riders to be in. One such rider is Kamil Gradek. Expect to see him in the break, again! The same can be said of Matej Mohoric.
Lampre have a few options for the stage. With both Niemiec and Ulissi targeting GC, they should be fighting for the stage. The also have Mattia Cattaneo and Valerio Conti. Both Italians are very talented young riders, with Conti, packing a real punch in a sprint finish. Depending on the size of the bunch, Lampre could have enough numbers to worry the other teams.
Prediction Time
The climbs, the finish, it all points to Michal Kwaitkowski. This is his stage to lose, can he cope with the pressure? He’s not been at his best, in recent races, but this is his stage!
David Hunter
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