Tour of Poland 2015 – Stage 6 Preview
By David Hunter
Bukovina – Bukovina 174km
In my, not so humble opinion, this is one of the hardest stages in the World Tour. A regular fixture in the Tour of Poland, this is a stage to fear. Think of today and multiply by 10.
The riders start by doing a small circuit, in Zakopane. Once completed, they head for 4 laps of pain. The circuit is 38.4km long and features the Zab, Sciana Bukovina and Bukovina Tatrzanska. Most of the race is out in the Polish countryside and the roads are heavy and leg sapping. The race is constantly climbing or descending and we hit some proper steep gradients.
In previous editions, the race has headed to high mountains. This year, the organisers decided against that but today’s stage really hurt the riders and plenty will be tired going into this stage. It is a stage to fear.
The lap goes: Zab, Sciana, Tatrzanska. The climbs are completed 4 times and there is no rest, in between. It is constant climbing, descending, climbing, descending, …
This is why the stage is so difficult. Technically, Sciana, is the hardest climb. It contains a 22% gradient and is a real grind. The selections are usually made on these climbs and on the descents, where we have seen crashes. The final ascent, to the finishing line, saves great action for the very end of the stage. We don’t usually get a solo rider, away from the bottom of the hill. The road is very long and straight, so you can see your opponents, all the way to the line. It is very important to save energy, for the final climb and the sprint. Bonus seconds can be crucial.
Movistar know this stage extremely well. They always seem to have plenty of riders left and this is crucial for Ion Izagirre. Disaster has struck the team, in terms of a virus. If he’s going to win the stage or GC, he’s going to do it the hard way. Although, he’ll hope that Capecchi and Anton will stay with him tomorrow. The Spaniard was 3rd here in 2014, bettering his 7th place in 2013. I am worried that a bad day is around the corner, especially with a virus passing through the team.
Most of the riders are familiar with this stage. Looking at the previous winners, gives you an idea of the type of rider who wins here:- Majka, Atapuma, Moser, Dan Martin and Mollema.
Getting a few riders, in the breakaway, is a good tactic for the GC riders to use. We might see a few teams try this move, but it will be hard to execute. Before the race started, Kwiatkowski and Izagirre, were the overwhelming favourites for the title. Today showed us that Kwiatkowski is still not at the level required. I’m not sure what’s wrong with him, but he’s had a poor run of recent form. It’s certainly not doing his contract talks any good.
Today’s brutal stage, showed us who is capable of challenging:- Aru, Formolo, De Clercq, Ulissi, Reichenbach, Henao, Hermans, Rebellin, Aru, Riblon, Nieve and Zakarin.
For Riblon, this is the only race he targets for the GC. Most of the time, he has to work for others and concentrates on breakaway success. Last year, he was 4th in the stage and 4th on GC. In 2013, he was 2nd in the stage and 3rd on GC. In 2011, he was 10th in the stage and 8th on GC. Riblon, has the form and knows every inch of the stage.
Diego Ulissi is sitting in a great position. Capable of doing a good TT, he has a lead over most of his rivals. At times he looked on the limit today, expect to see him tested in this stage. He does know this stage, he was 4th here in 2013. Ulissi is a tough rider and he’ll be looking towards his team to help him out. It was surprising to see only Sky and Cannondale, have multiple riders at the end of today’s stage. Having teammates is a massive advantage, on a stage like this.
Fabio Aru looked the most impressive today. You might have thought, he was riding tempo for Lutsenko, but the Italian just blew them all away. Remember that this stage is harder than today. Aru is not the best TT rider, so he needs time. Astana were very aggressive, as they look to continue on from the Giro. Aru knows he needs big results, if he is to be co-leader, with Nibali, at the Vuelta. Expect to see a big show from him, as he attempts to distance the whole field. The TT is 25km long, he will need a gap of more than 1 minute, to be comfortable. He will go all out to get that gap!
Zakarin is a great TT rider, but he was distanced on the final climb. Some nice descending allowed him to rejoin the pack, but it’s not a great sign. If you felt under pressure today, just imagine how hard tomorrow will be. Someone who looked in great condition was Seb Reichenbach. The young Swiss rider was in brilliant form. Firmly in the shop window, he might just have added an extra zero, to his new contract. He will not be continuing with IAM, but moving to a new team. That performance certainly helped. Expect another big show from him.
If the breakaway succeeds, I can think of one candidate… Niemiec! Yes he had a bad day today, but he has the extra motivation of being a home rider (as does Kwiatkowski). Last year, he was 5th in the stage and 5th on GC. He was poor here in 2013, coming off the Tour de France. He normally rides the Giro/Vuelta double. In 2012, he was 5th in the stage and 24th on GC. In 2011, he was 4th in the stage and 11th on GC. Sending Niemiec in the break, would also be a help for Ulissi, should he need him later in the race.
Prediction Time
The best climber here is Fabio Aru. The best team here is Astana. Aru rides for Astana! Aru wins;)
Sometimes cycling is that simple.
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