Tour of Romandie 2015 – Stage 5 Preview

By David Hunter

Fribourg – Champex-Lac 166.1km

The Queen stage of the race and a tough day in the saddle. The riders are faced with four cat 1 climbs, including a mountaintop finish.

Col de Mosses – 13.7km at 4%.

Les Giettes – 9.4km at 7.6%.

Petite Fordaz – 5.1km at 9.8%.

Champex Lac – 14.2km at 7%.

The weather forecast isn’t brilliant. Rain is predicted in the morning and evening, with less chance in the afternoon. If the riders manage to dodge the rain, they’ll be very pleased. The finish is at 1500m, so it’s going to be cold too. With the Giro in 1 week, competitors will be very scared of picking up a nasty cold, that would ruin their Giro preparations.

In particular, I’m thinking of Rigoberto Uran. After a very wet day today, he won’t be excited about another risky day. If the TDF riders get a cold, they have plenty of time to recover. It certainly puts Uran at a slight disadvantage. He’ll also be wary about going “too deep”, one week from the Giro. I would be very surprised to see him contending for the win.

The last two climbs are very difficult. The penultimate climb is steep and will slim down the bunch, before the long climb to the finish. If it was a GT, this would be an HC climb.

This isn’t the full picture of the climb, but does show the final 10km. The finishing line, is at the top of the climb, not after the little descent. The final 10km is at 8% or so and features 2km at 10% or more. This is a real mountain climb and if we get rain, it will be brutal.

The break had their day today and I don’t expect a repeat here. Orica know that Albasini won’t hold onto the lead but they’ll honour the jersey and work to limit the break. Then expect to see Sky and Movistar looking to dominate. Well, maybe not Team Sky.

Pete Kennaugh was a DNF today and that leaves them short of mountain helpers. They do have Roche and Thomas, but neither have looked in form. Thomas is tired after a long spring campaign and Roche is still recovering from his crash in LBL. Froome will be short of help, something he isn’t used to.

Sitting on the same time as Froome, is the sensational Simon Yates. Just 22 years old, he seems to have maintained his Pais Vasco form and is a serious contender for the stage. Is TT ability is poor, so he’ll find it hard to win the GC, but the others need to give him respect. I expect another big ride for the Orica rider.

Movistar have looked good so far. Quintana will be helped by Sutherland, Castroviejo, Capecchi, Amador and Anacona. This is a strong group of climbers and looks like the best team. I think Movistar will be the team that controls most of the climb. After a disastrous TTT, Nairo is 40 seconds down on GC, to Froome. A weaker TT rider than Froome, he might even get a little freedom on the climb. If he does, the stage is over. The weather isn’t a problem either, he’s won plenty of races in horrible conditions. Is he in better form than in Pais Vasco?

Astana are the only team that rival Movistar, in terms of depth. They have Nibali, Fuglsang, Scarponi and Taaramae. All 4 of them are still just 17 seconds behind Froome. They have been very attacking in 2015 and with 4 options, they will try to pressure Team Sky. Nibali does seem to be in better form, but I’m still wary about picking him, pre-TDF. The weather is also good for Fuglsang and he could go close.

Damiano Caruso has picked up bonus seconds and is just 15 seconds behind Froome. He has Rohan Dennis and Darwin Atapuma, to help him. Like Uran, he also rides the Giro, so he won’t be risking much.

IAM have big hopes for Mathias Frank but against such talented climbers, he’ll struggle to make the podium. A strong showing, should ensure a top 10 finish, something he should be happy with.

The closest threat to Chris Froome, is Simon Spilak. Just 5 seconds back, the Slovak will be sensing a chance to win. A rider that thrives in poor weather, he’ll be hoping for a horrible day and he is backed up by Zakarin, Trofimov and Chernetskii. After finishing 2nd, in 2014, he would love to go one better and has a great chance of doing so.

The beauty of this race, is the long list of potential candidates. Rui Costa loves finishing 3rd here. He’s finished 3rd, in the last 3 consecutive races, and looks destined for another good finish. He’s been very visible, this week, and is another that does well in rain.

Thibaut Pinot is also close on GC, thanks to a solid TTT. He’s another that seems to be gradually building form, and on a good day, could contend for the win. He was 6th, climbing to Terminillo, in the snow of Tirreno. He’s riding better now and would be disappointed not to finish in the top 5.

Thanks to a poor TTT, we have some talent over 1 minute down: Rafal Majka, Romain Bardet, Robert Gesink and Jurgen Van Den Broeck. Majka is the strongest of these 3, but has struggled this season. His form is starting to look better and a big performance is just around the corner. Could it be here?

Breakaway candidates have to be quality climbers. Look towards Geniez, Rolland, Betancur and Fumeaux. The KOM jersey is still up for grabs and with 4 cat 1 climbs, it should be taken by a breakaway rider. IAM will be hoping that Fumeaux can retain the jersey that Tschopp won in 2014.

Can we get our first, non-Swiss, winner of the week?

Prediction Time

The best climbers are Froome, Nibali, Quintana, Spilak, Pinot, Yates, Majka and Uran. We could get a battle royale between Froome and Nibali, something we’d all love to see. Here in 2014, Froome gave Nibali a good spanking. Quintana and Spilak will be wanting to spoil the party, especially Spilak, with the GC up for grabs. The weather could have a big say in proceedings and I think it favours Quintana and Spilak, but Chris Froome is looking for a confidence boost. Without Contador, to constantly change the pace, Froome will be in his comfort zone. The lack of a strong team, could leave him isolated but I think he has enough talent to cope and come out on top. Whatever happens, it should be a brilliant day.

David Hunter

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