Tour of the Alps 2017 – Stage 1 Preview
By David Hunter
Kufstein – Innsbruck Hungerburg 142.3km
The race begins with a fairly demanding stage.
The profile doesn’t make it look an overly difficult stage, but the peloton have to deal with 2075m of climbing. The first real challenge is the Brandenberg, 8.1km at 5.4%, but that does include an opening 4.3km at 9.1%.
After a short descent, the riders face the short but demanding climb to Aschau, 1.4km at 11.8%. Cresting with over 60km remaining, this should be tackled at a reasonable pace.
The race really heats up as we approach the climb to Schlogelsbach. This is 3km at 9.1%, but it’s still quite far out from the finish, cresting with 23.5km remaining. I would imagine that Team Sky will lift the pace at this point and dramatically slim down the size of the peloton. Amazingly, this climb is not even categorised by the organisers. Once off the descent, the peloton begin the final climb of the day, up to the finish line.
Probably the easiest climb of the day, but we could still see some gaps on GC. As you can see, the climb is mostly over 7%, making it perfect for a climber with a fast kick.
Weather
The forecast does not look good, expect a very wet day for the riders. This will make a hard stage even more difficult and I expect a small group to arrive at the foot of the final climb.
Contenders
Geraint Thomas – a lot of eyes will be on the Welshman. He arrives with the strongest team and they’ll take every chance to make this race tough. The end of this stage will undoubtedly be very tactical, which could open the door for one of his teammates to take a win. Thomas will like this finish, but so will Landa and Kennaugh. Sky have multiple options and will have a large say in the outcome of the stage.
Thibaut Pinot – he’ll find himself heavily marked by his Sky rivals, but will still fancy his chances of winning a “sprint” to the line. The climber does have an explosive uphill sprint, something that Sky will be fearful of. Sky will attack him, but in Ludvigsson and Morabito, he has two riders capable of chasing down any late move.
Davide Formolo – now 24 years old, I have a feeling that Formolo is on the verge of big things. He finished 9th in the 2016 Vuelta, a big step forward in his career and he’ll be looking forward to a big result in the Giro. He does like steep slopes and can surprise with his sprint. Cannondale have a number of options for this stage, Formolo is probably the best one.
Moreno Moser – now riding for Astana, the Italian has a solid chance in this stage. The big mountains will be too hard for him later in the race, this looks like his best chance of success. Without Fabio Aru, there is a chance for the other Astana riders to shine. They are the only world tour squad without a win in 2017, Moser has a good chance of getting their first success of the year.
Manuel Senni – the BMC rider is certainly one for the future. This stage could see the main favourites marking each other and a “lesser” rider sneak away. Senni fits the bill, especially as the main favourites would expect to drop him in the high mountains. He already had the leader’s jersey in Valenciana, can he take another one here?
Sergey Firsanov – the Russian has had a slow start to the year, but usually starts to do well around now. He was impressive in this race in 2016 and needs some good results to boost his confidence before the Giro.
Danilo Celano – some may not recognise the name, but the 27 year old just won Giro dell’Appennino. He normally rides for the Amore & Vita squad, but starts this race in the Italian national squad. His recent win was a huge shock, especially as Androni had numbers in the final group. He clearly has good legs and could shock the bigger names here.
Prediction Time
With the main favourites looking to mark each other, I think we’ll see a non-GC threat taking the stage. For me, Moreno Moser, is the man with the fastest uphill sprint and my pick as the winner.
David Hunter
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