Tour of the Alps 2018 – Stage 5 Preview

By David Hunter

Rattenberg – Innsbruck 164.2km

A mini-world championship.

Before we hit the lap circuit which features elements of the world championships, the bunch have to tackle the cat 1 climb of Alpbach.

This is an erratic climb, some riders will not enjoy it. With two extremely difficult kilometres, it seems likely that the bunch will explode at this point. Normally it would be a little far out, but we’ve already seen that most teams have been happy to attack this week.

Once we descend off the mountain, there is around 20km of flat, before the climbing starts again.

Despite being uncategorised, this is a brutal little wall, 2.5km at 9.9%, I can’t understand why it hasn’t been categorised. The 1.5km stretch at over 12% is going to cause a lot of problems, even though it crests with 60km to go. Given the way the peloton have been riding, the front group will be very small at the top of this hill.

Then it’s time for some of the world championship circuit.

The Olympia climb is 7.8km at 5.5%, but only features one kilometre above 7%. Given some of the climbs earlier in the stage, it’s the fatigue not the gradient that will hurt the riders. The descent off the climb isn’t too technical and the last climb tops out with 13km remaining. Once off the descent, the road is technical, with many tight corners.

Weather

The great weather continues for the peloton.

Tactics

Over to Astana. They’ve had a near perfect race, just making a mess of the stage 3 finish. Saying that, Lopez is still sitting 15 seconds behind Pinot. Their other GC threat is Sanchez, but he is 1:06 behind Pinot, meaning that it will be hard for him to take the overall win.

With the main contenders unable to distance each other on the climbs, having multiple options is important for this stage. Astana will try and distance the domestiques from the other teams, something they’ve done well all week, and then start to launch the big attacks. They will have to use Sanchez to grind down the favourites and then let Lopez attack and see if he can win. They would dearly wish that Sanchez was closer on GC, as that would put them in a much better position.

Expect a huge fight for the break, with Astana and Sky trying to send men up the road. This will force FDJ into chasing and burning matches early in the race. On the cat 1 climb, Astana will likely start to set the pace, making the bunch around 30 riders. On the Gnaderwald climb, the bunch will reduce again, before the lap circuit. If Astana have 4 riders in the front group, life will be very difficult for Pinot and Froome. We might even see an unlikely alliance between these riders, it really looks like their only option.

Contenders

Thibaut Pinot – the fastest sprinter of the GC riders, but he might have to do a lot of chasing. He leads Pozzovivo and Lopez by 15 seconds, with Froome a further second behind. Pinot knows that this will be a very hard stage and given the numbers Astana have, attacking will be his best option. I expect a big performance from him.

Chris Froome – today seemed to mark another improvement in his legs. As we all know, Froome is looking to peak for the Giro, and this race has been an important part of that. In Kenny Elissonde, he has a rider in remarkable form, but he could do with some of his other teammates stepping up to the mark. Froome has looked keen to push on the descents, something he’ll try again in this stage.

Miguel Angel Lopez – Astana’s main man, but he would much rather an uphill finish. Lacking a sprint, he really needs his team to destroy his opposition and then he can attack when the rest are tired. He looks to have good form, but winning this stage is complicated for him. A lot of it depends on LL Sanchez.

Domenico Pozzovivo – this was his first test of the season and he has passed with flying colours. He has followed all the moves and tried a few attacks of his own. The little Italian will be very happy with his week and he has a real chance of walking away with the overall win. If the other contenders start to look at each other, he won’t shy away from making a move.

George Bennett – considering he was smashed by a car on Sunday, he has performed remarkable well. He just missed the winning attack today, but he’ll be back at it tomorrow. He sits 1:10 behind Pinot, meaning the Frenchman won’t chase him, but the rest won’t want to give him any freedom. He’s another that would prefer an uphill finish.

Fabio Aru – another rider who seems to be growing into the race. Aru was bold today, but it didn’t work. Despite not really threatening this week, there have been enough signs of progression to please him and his new team. He won’t win this race, but he’ll be ready for the Giro.

Luis Leon Sanchez – after making a mess of stage 3, the Spaniard was in no mood to make the same mistake today. Attacking at the perfect time, he soloed away for the win, leaving him just over 1 minute behind Pinot. The lap circuit seems perfect for him, as there are no double digit gradients. Astana are in an interesting position, as Sanchez looks the best for this stage, but they want Lopez to take the GC. After taking his win today, I expect Sanchez to sacrifice himself to try and help his Colombian teammate.

Prediction Time

This will be a proper battle of attrition. Expect to see a very tactical race, but the cream should rise to the top. When a small group of favourites get away, I think we’ll see Froometaking the win, but Pinot will hold onto the race lead.

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