Tour of the Alps 2019 – Stage 3 Preview
By David Hunter
Salorono – Baselga Di Piné 106.3km
Strap yourself in for a crazy day of climbing.
Just 106km long, but this stage actually contains 3137m of climbing. This is going to be one hell of a stage, don’t be confused by the presence of just a cat 2 and 3 climb. The organisers are having a laugh with this!
The Climbs
The classified climbing begins with the ascent to Brusago. Despite only being cat 3, this is 4.7km at 6.9%, with a maximum of 15.1%. This is the halfway point in the stage, and I expect to see a fast pace on the climb and riders to already be dropped.
The cat 2 ascent of Lago di Santa Colomba is 5.4km at 7.1%, with a maximum of 14.3%. This is a really tough hill and we’ll see some moves from the big teams. The crest comes after just 80km of racing, but the peloton only have 26km to go. As we’ve already witnessed, this is when the race gets very tactical. Astana and Sky will try and fire riders up the road, putting pressure on Nibali and Majka.
The final climb is uncategorised, but still is 5.3km at 7.4%, with a maximum of 10.2%. The official statistics only tell part of the story; the final half of the climb rarely drops below 9%. The climb tops out with 3.5km remaining, still on undulating roads. Once under the flamme rouge, the road kicks up about 5% for 200m, before a nagging false flat finish.
Weather
Warmer than today, but rain will hang around for most of the day. The peloton might get lucky and not get wet, it looks like they’ll be out during a dry spell.
Tactics
Today’s stage has helped to shape the GC, with only seven riders within one minute of Paval Sivakov. Astana have Hirt and Bilbao, Bahrain have Nibali and Pernsteiner, Sky have Sivakov and Geoghegan Hart, Bora have Majka and Androni have Cattaneo.
Both Sky and Astana did a great job of isolating Nibali and Majka today, this was hugely important as they clearly are the strongest riders in the race. In order to combat the other squads, these two are going to have to attack from distance and not wait for the final climb. With some difficult stages still to come, this race is a long way from over.
As the climbs are all relatively short, I think Astana are bound to have more riders left than anyone else; they hold the cards, as usual. Now that Bilbao is a little down on GC, he is the man who’ll be used to attack from distance, he actually tried today but was caught. If Sky get on this move, it will be hard for anyone to bring it back. This is the big concern for Nibali and Majka. If they have enough teammates to hold it together until the final climb, one of them will win the stage and move closer on GC. It’s up to Astana and Sky to stop this from happening.
Contenders
Rafał Majka – as I’ve already mentioned, this won’t be an easy stage for him to win. Given the numerical advantage the other teams have, I hope Majka attacks on the cat 2 climb, knowing that he’ll be able to count on the support of Nibali. This will force the others into chasing, making them burn their domestiques. If Majka waits for the final climb, he needs a lot of luck as well as good legs.
Vincenzo Nibali – he’s in a slightly stronger position than Majka, as he has Pernsteiner sitting high on GC. It will be interesting to see how Bahrain approach the stage, it would make sense to let the Austrian attack and let Nibali hang back in the bunch. The tough stage is excellent for the Italian, but the final kilometre isn’t ideal for him, he would have to be solo to take the win.
Tao Geoghegan Hart – his sprint to win stage 1 shows that he cannot be taken to the line by the other contenders. He wasn’t able to match the acceleration of Nibali and Majka today, something that won’t have filled him with confidence. Sky have won the opening two stages and have the race lead in Sivakov, they are getting their tactics spot on in this race. Expect to see them trying to get the young Brit up the road and take another win.
Pello Bilbao – faded a little today, which was a big disappointment. The Basque rider still gives Astana a great option in this stage, particularly as he would be the favourite to win a reduced sprint. Making that happen will be incredibly difficult, I don’t even see them trying. Astana will constantly attack and hope to break the elastic, we’ll have to see if Bilbao has the luck to escape the bunch.
Herman Pernsteiner – solid second option for Bahrain. Not the strongest rider in the race, but he can still win this stage if he gets his tactics right.
Mattia Cattaneo – I was delighted to see him ride well today and he now sits in third place on GC. He might not have a big reputation, but the Italian is a great climber and these punchy efforts will really suit him.
Roland Thalmann – the Swiss rider is turning a few heads in this race. Riding for a 3rd division team and still competing against the best in the world is an amazing achievement for him and his team. He’ll be afforded some freedom by the GC riders, something which could come back to haunt him; he showed in the opening stage he has a fast sprint.
Prediction Time
There is no skill in predicting a stage like this, only luck. Nibali and Majka are the strongest, but Astana and Sky will try and repeat what happened today. Are Bora and Bahrain good enough to stop this from happening? I think it will be Groundhog Day and Tao Geoghegan Hart will take another win.
Remember I’ve now got a podcast too. Go and give it a listen
David Hunter
Follow us on @CiclismoInter
Join us on facebook: Ciclismo Internacional
Copyright © 2012-2019 Ciclismo Internacional. All Rights Reserved
