Tour of the Alps 2019 – Stage 4 Preview
By David Hunter
Baselga di Piné – Cles 134km
Another crazy day awaits.
The stage follows the same pattern as the rest of the week; brutal climbs and a flat finish.
The Climbs
Forcella di Briez is 5.7km at 10.5%, with a maximum of 17.3%. As you can see it is a tough climb and one that will see many riders getting dropped. I’m disappointed this is the first climb, not the last one. Will any of the teams be tempted to blow the race apart at this point?
Passo Predaia is only a cat 2 climb, but it’s 10.1km at 7.4%, with a maximum of 14.5%. It’s another example of the organisers getting the classification wrong, something that’s happened throughout the race. The climb crests with 19km to go, but it isn’t all downhill.
Another unclassified beauty! 1.2km at 10.6% is a brilliant end to the stage, riders will need to ensure they have some matches left. The climb tops out with 4km remaining, but the climb is hard enough that a solo rider can escape and stay away to take the win.
Tactics
Astana lost more riders from the GC picture today, leaving Jan Hirt as their last man standing. The team will be hugely disappointed with this performance, it makes it very difficult for them to win the overall.
The GC picture is not clear; in fact, it’s a mess! Sivakov leads Hirt by 8 seconds, Cattaneo is at 23 seconds, then comes Majka at 35, Tao at 37 and Nibali at 39. You would say that these three are the strongest riders in the race, but Sivakov and Hirt cannot be overlooked.
Given the difficulty of the stage, we should only have the very best riders left after the penultimate climb. Sky are the only team with two clear options, but are their young guns good enough to hold off Majka and Nibali? A lot depends on Froome. Sky will need his power to claw back the attacks from the big two, if he drops early, I fear for the youngsters.
Astana are left in a position where Hirt will try and follow wheels. He doesn’t need to get involved in attacking or chasing, he simply needs to follow the Sky riders. That makes it sound easy, it will be far from it.
Weather
The rain arrives late in the day, meaning it should stay dry for the race.
Contenders
Rafał Majka – if he arrives at the foot of the final climb in the front group, this stage should be his. He looks to be in great form, and will love the look of the double digits. Today he showed that he can sprint well too, but he’ll be keen on dropping Geoghegan Hart. Both he and Nibali seem happy to work together in order to beat Sky, this will need to continue in this stage.
Vincenzo Nibali – see above! It’s been a long time since Nibali looked this good in a stage race, outside of a grand tour. The shark will smell blood, do Sky really believe their youngsters can cope with a full bloodied shark attack? Nibali’s problem will be dropping Majka, something that has to happen if he wants to win the stage.
Tao Geoghegan Hart – “won” the bunch sprint behind Masnada today, but he’ll be kicking himself about dropping time on Tuesday. The young Brit is in an interesting tactical position, especially if he can follow the moves of Majka and Nibali. If that happens, he can sit at the back of the trio and refuse to work, as Sivakov will be looking to get back into the group. That would put him in a strong position, but can he really follow the moves on the 10% unclassified climb? His performance on Tuesday makes me doubt him.
Jan Hirt – no chance of winning the stage, his sole focus will be hanging tough and trying to move into the race lead.
Mattia Cattaneo – continues to impress against the big teams. His problem is that he is a real threat on GC, so no freedom will be given. The Italian lacks a sprint, it sounds like I’m writing him off.
Pavel Sivakov – this is a huge test for him. He’s a bright young rider, but I don’t think he’s strong enough to cope with all these climbs. It would be a huge result if he remained in the race lead after this stage.
Prediction Time
At last, being the strongest riders will actually count in this race! This is a hugely demanding stage and I think Nibali and Majka will get away from the Sky train on the final climb. In the two-up sprint, Rafał Majka will take the glory.
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David Hunter
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