Tour of the Alps 2019 – Stage 5 Preview
By David Hunter
Coldaro – Bolzano 147.8km
The final stage is here.
Another day with eye watering gradients. The race follows the same path as previous days; a couple of big climbs and a fast descent to the finish.
The Climbs
The climb to Collalbo is 17.5km at 4.1%, but this does include a downhill section. There’s really nothing here that will concern the majority of the riders. After a fast descent, the riders are faced with the toughest climb of the whole week.
18.6km at 6.1%, with a maximum of 26.8%; the organisers have saved the best for last. The figures are actually distorted by a section of flat, before the road kicks up again. The climb also features some cobbles as we head through the town, this is a nasty effort and one that will see the strongest riders rise to the top. The opening 12km of the climbing averages a whopping 8.5%, this would be an HC climb in the Giro.
The Descent
From 16.6km remaining, the riders hit this technical descent. The hairpin bends are great for riders to test out their opponents, but once off this descent we still have 8km left. If you haven’t managed to drop Sky on the climb, you might as well try on the descent!
Weather
Bad news peloton, rain is predicted. That should make the final descent a mental test as much as one of your bike handling skills.
Tactics
It’s all about the final climb. This is where big differences can be made, but the weaker climbers will be happy to see a long way to go from the crest. With over 20km still to be raced, there is every chance of a slight regroupment and a handful of riders approaching the finishing line together. This depends on the attitude of the front group and who is chasing behind. This is not a day for fancy tactics, it’s about pure climbing power, or is it about descending skills?
That final descent is tough, especially on wet roads. With the Giro fast approaching, we will really see some of the big riders take risks to win this race? It certainly isn’t wise, but you just never know with these guys.
Contenders
Vincenzo Nibali – did someone say technical descent? His brilliant form continues, but he just can’t shake the Sky boys, and Majka. The Italian looks in fine form and he will go full gas on the climb, looking to drop as many as he can. His sprinting speed means that he has to arrive solo to win the stage, but this will be complicated. We’ll also have to wait and see how many risks he’s willing to take on the final descent, there is no point risking injury and ruining his Giro chances.
Rafał Majka – the only rider who managed to get a gap today. He would have been disappointed to get caught with 500m to go, but it will give him some hope for this stage. He looks equally matched with Nibali and it’s in both their interests to work together, in order to drop the Sky riders. Majka also descends very well, he won’t be worried about following Nibali on the downhill.
Tao Geoghegan Hart – two stage wins already this week, can he make it three? Despite working hard for Sivakov, he still had enough energy left to take the win and move ahead of Majka and Nibali on GC. Sky’s tactics will depend on how Sivakov gets on during the big climb, but having two options is certainly good for the team. If it ends in a small sprint, the young Brit has to be the favourite for the stage.
Pavel Sivakov – he surprised me today, easily holding onto the race lead. This stage is a different proposition altogether, but he is a fine climber. Having such a long climb will give the attackers a number of opportunities and Sivakov is going to have to go very deep to win the GC. My other concern is his descending, he looked to struggle a little today when Nibali started to accelerate. His week has been a big success, but he would like to top it off with a big win.
Prediction Time
Time to go bold. I just don’t see Sivakov being able to hold on, that climb looks too hard for him. That leaves three riders in the frame, will we see some gaps? Geoghegan Hart struggled today when Nibali first accelerated, and on the final climb. I’ve been talking about Nibali and Majka being the strongest all week, this has to be their day. The climb is a proper test and I expect them to put the youngsters back in their box. The stage win and GC for Rafał Majka.
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David Hunter
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