Tour of the Basque Country 2022 – Overall Preview

By @EchelonsHub

We have had an introduction at the GP Miguel Indurain, but this coming week we will have the Itzulia Basque Country. Stage-racing in holy cycling lands, filled with crazy fans, steep climbs and wild weather that always makes for a big spectacle with the world-class riders that come along every year.

The Route

The race starts off with a short prologue. It has climbs, descents and technical streets, enough to create some early differences and order in the general classification.

Stage one is the one that could on paper finish in a sprint the most and lure in some fast men. It is a World Tour win on the line after, a day that suits the breakaway or late attacks but the gradients never get too complicated to handle.

Stage two features a small loop that will be ridden twice near Amurrio. It is a day without a single long climb, but full of short and steep ascents that can cause serious damage, specially as the riders won’t have a clear order of who are the contenders for the win in the race.

The fourth stage sees a profile that isn’t too different from the previous stage. Although there are less climbs in total, the two last ascents features gradients well above the 10% mark where the race is set to blow up again. Everyday can be crucial for the GC, and to remain focused will be very important as it is raiding territory.

The penultimate day of the race is another packed with small ascents, however differences can be made with no difficulty if someone seriously intends on attacking the race. On the eve of the queen stage, that’s regularly not the case, however it’s an attractive day full of roller-coaster terrain. Even if the riders race conservatively, they have a very steep and sharp finish at Mallabia in double digit gradients which will inevitably see some gaps form towards the line.

The queen stage and Itzulia classic. The peloton is set to ride towards the Alto de Arrate after a combination of very hard climbs throughout the day. There will only be 136 kilometers to ride, but they include climbing from start to finish, two incredibly steep ascents, technical descents and a final climb into the Santuario de Arrate which is always dangerous, specially at the end of such a hard day.

Weather for the Week

Although the forecast doesn’t look as bad as the GP Miguel Indurain this weekend, it doesn’t promise good weather. Cold temperatures, strong wind and rain are all likely during the week, and everyday can see something different. As they say, “if you don’t like the weather in the Basque Country, just wait 5 minutes”.

GC Contenders

Jumbo-Visma – With Primoz Roglic as defending champion they will have high ambitions. Jumbo-Visma have a very strong team, Roglic may be leading the team but with both Jonas Vingegaard and Sepp Kuss alongside him, there are several cards to play which will be crucial in the chaotic stages, and the initial prologue will be to their liking.

INEOS – A team that is capable of battling Jumbo here with no doubt. With a team full of quality stage-racers it is no surprise that they come in for one of the final stage-races of the spring with a strong lineup. Daniel Martínez, Adam Yates, Tao Geogheghan Hart, Carlos Rodríguez and Geraint Thomas are all in the lineup, and they have perhaps the strongest collective – which is a big ask seeing how Jumbo and BORA measure up.

BORA – With four riders who can lead the team, BORA is also coming in with many cards to play which will be ideal for them. Although some have stayed home, the German team has brought in Catalunya winner Sergio Higuita who will love the route. He will be racing alongside Emanuel Buchmann, Aleksandr Vlasov and Lennard Kamna who are all on their right big contenders for the overall classification.

Julian Alaphilippe & Remco Evenepoel – Both are coming in to prime their form for the Ardennes, but it is reasonable to think of them for a GC tilt. Alaphilippe not as much, however the race suits him very well. As for Evenepoel, he’s not a fan of incredibly steep climbs, however he thrives in the type of chaotic racing that is expected out of this race and they are backed by a strong team that includes Mauri Vansevenant.

UAE – A team with virtually no domestique. Despite the absence of many leaders, UAE come with a squad where Diego Ulissi and Alessando Covi may come in with stage ambitions however wouldn’t be surprising to see them in the fight for GC. As for the climbers there will be Marc Soler, Rafal Majka, Davide Formolo and George Bennett. Strength in numbers can come in very handy, although they miss a big leader that could realistically take the win with such competition.

There will be more outsiders though, who will likely struggle to get in the battle seeing that there are so many teams with an incredible collective strength. Nevertheless, there is a lot of quality. Home rider Ion Izagirre is always an outsider – and former winner of this very race – and will be fully used to what the peloton will face. Enric Mas from Movistar, the Bahrain duo of Pello Bilbao and Gino Mäder and TotalEnergies’ Pierre Latour are all strong contenders for a Top10, or more if they ride a consistent race without mishaps.

You have Michael Woods and David Gaudu coming in as wildcards too, on paper two riders perfectly suited to the many steep climbs the riders will face, however questions over their health influentiate heavily the expectations put on them. There are a few more riders who should be near the front in the crucial moments such as EF’s Mark Padun and Ruben Guerreiro, Jan Hirt and Aurélien Paret-Peintre.

Prediction Time

⭐⭐⭐Roglic, D.Martinez, Higuita

⭐⭐Vingegaard, A.Yates, Vlasov, Evenepoel

⭐Hart, Ca.Rodríguez, Buchmann, Kamna, Alaphilippe, Soler, Majka, G.Bennett, I.Izagirre, Mas, Bilbao, Woods, Gaudu, Guerreiro, Padun

It will be a chaotic race with many contenders. Will surely be a battle between some teams, Jumbo being one of them. Roglic loves racing in Spain and I trust him to perform and take the win, although many more can do the same.

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