Tour of the Basque Country – Stage 5 Preview

By @EchelonsHub

It was a race controlled by Jumbo as expected, as they took hold of the Itzulia for one more day with an impressive defensive performance on the climbs. The breakaway seemed to have it today, but the peloton saw an all-day long chase which ended up culminating in the capture of the last survivor inside the final kilometer. In the sprint, Daniel Martínez surprised with an early dash for the line and collected a big win, just barely beating Julian Alaphilippe and Diego Ulissi in the sprint.

Positive: Martinez taking a strong win and some time for his GC tilt, Jumbo keeping the race together in another stage that could be chaotic.

Negative: Quick-Step didn’t race bad in any way, but once again didn’t manage to come out of the day with any meaningful gain despite all the work. Pierre Latour crashed in the final descent and has dropped out of GC contention.

The Route

3400 meters of climbing in the penultimate stage of the Itzulia. A raw day with climbing from start to finish, nowhere to hide. However, with the queen stage ahead, it may be a more conservative day between the GC riders, only the road will tell.

The day starts off with a trio of small but sharp hilltops which will likely see a strong group go up the road. There is a slightly flat-ish section then for around an hour of racing, but the second half of the stage features several climbs.

69 (2.6Km at 6.3%),58 (3.3Km at 6.8%), 47 (3Km at 5.6%) and 36 (5.2Km at 4.9%) kilometers to go see the summit of several climbs which will wear out everyone, and in a breakaway present opportunities for attacks. 

The most dangerous climb of the day will be Karabieta, which is 6.8 kilometers long at 5.4%, but as many climbs in this race, the average is very deceptive. It is a climb of two halves, separated by a flat section. The first half has 3.1 kilometers at 8.6% and it is hard enough to see serious attacks. The climb summits with 13 kilometers to go. 

The riders won’t be able to relax towards the line though, as the final kilometer is steep and should see gaps as the riders will go all-out into the line as it features steep ramps. The final 3 kilometers are generally uphill, but it’s specifically the final 600 meters which are dangerous as they average 10.5%, making for a very special kind of sprint.

The Weather

Strong western gusts throughout the day. Hidden in the valleys of the Basque Country, however it can become quite dangerous in exposed sections and high points of the stage. It will be a tense day, where the possibility of some rain is also real, specially towards the end.

Breakaway chances: 60%

I think tomorrow it can very well succeed. Today it was very close to happen, but many teams looked to work for a sprint and caught Lafay very close to the finish. Tomorrow the start will be rugged and will allow once again a strong group to go up the road, but unlike these two days I don’t expect such aggressive day as it’s the stage before the queen stage and the finale is quite dangerous with the uphill ramp to the line, and seconds can be lost whilst in these two the finale was flat.

Besides, with the likes of Roglic and Alaphilippe present, I doubt any other team will commit to a chase. Jumbo won’t want the stage that clearly isn’t their focus, and Quick-Step have worked a lot and would best have cards to play for a breakaway.

The Favourites

Primoz Roglic & Jonas Vingegaard – They won’t be going for the stage win, however if things are brought back they have good chances. Roglic more so as he’s explosive, the final ramp is almost perfect for him and I reckon only Alaphilippe could be a match.

Julian Alaphilippe & Remco Evenepoel – Alaphilippe has another chance at a stage win, however the team won’t surely sacrifice themselves for that chance as he has one already, and didn’t succeed in these two stages. Alaphilippe is the perfect candidate if things go down to an uphill drag to the line sprint. Evenepoel, a candidate, but his surprise element attacks seem to be perfectly covered here and I doubt tomorrow will be the day he’s capable of breaking that barrier as Jumbo look flawless.

Emanuel Buchmann for BORA, Andreas Leknessund for DSM, Gianluca Brambilla for Trek, Michael Woods for Israel; Tao Hart, Geraint Thomas and Carlos Rodríguez for INEOS, Ruben Guerreiro and James Shaw for EF Education, Victor Lafay for Cofidis, Mauri Vansevenant and Dries Devenyns for Quick-Step, Sergio Higuita and Lennard Kamna for BORA, Gino Mader for Bahrain, Xabier Azparren for Euskaltel, Bruno Armirail for Groupama; Davide Formolo, Diego Ulissi and Alessandro Covi for UAE aswell although I reckon both the latter can also thrive on a sprint finish if that were to come along.

Will the GC fight kick off again? It might, but I think most have understood that to get over Jumbo will be extremely hard with the way they’re racing, so motivation will not be sky high. Nevertheless it is quite a hard stage and it would not be surprising, you must consider the likes of Adam Yates, Aleksandr Vlasov, Enric Mas, Pello Bilbao, Ion Izagirre and David Gaudu. A sprint finish between some of the riders above aswell would not be a surprising scenario, it would in fact not be the first time since stage two had that outcome.

Inside The Bus

This morning I talk to…

#76 Victor Lafay – Victor, you did incredible in this last stage, everything right and you clearly have the legs to take a big win. Don’t let the result take you down, this is a good stage for a break and if you want you can try to get in again. If not, rest up and set your eyes on the final day.

#183 Gianluca Brambilla – Gianluca, go for it! You’ve clearly shown the legs today to be with the big boys, and I don’t expect anyone to want to fiercely chase you down as you’re more than 3 minutes behind Roglic. We have a strong team here and we want to get this stage, we’ll try to get several riders in front. Ideally, more than one, and they will attack the last two hours of racing to try and build gaps so that you can stay safe in the back of the group. The stage is hard, if you see you must don’t be shy of hitting the front if it’s a short group, however ideally you’ll save up for Karabieta and then make your move, we can only guess what can happen afterwards. If you can’t get in the breakaway, rest up and focus on the final stage, a stage win is possible.

#94 Tanel Kangert – Things aren’t looking good Tanel, but I expect a breakaway win for this day and you have the responsibility to try and get in the head of the race. Lucas is the goal, ideally we’d be able to sneak in some riders and help his chances of both a win and a rise in the overall classification.

Prediction Time

⭐⭐⭐Roglic, Alaphilippe

⭐⭐Evenepoel, Latour, Brambilla, G.Thomas, Ulissi

⭐Vingegaard, Leknessund, Woods, Guerreiro, Shaw, Vansevenant, Kamna, Azparren, Armirail, Covi, Formolo, Vlasov, Bilbao, Mas, Gaudu, Lafay

Tough call, stage isn’t brutal but it is hard. There are many riders who can head for a win, I reckon it’s a very open stage with many possible outcomes. I will go for a Quick-Step win, but from a breakaway, from Mauri Vansevenant.

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