UAE Tour 2019 – Stage 5 Preview
By David Hunter
Sharjah – Khor Fakkan 179.4km
A day for the sprinters.
We have a couple of lumps along the way, but nothing that should concern the quick men. With 6km to go, the riders face 1.2km at 4.1%, which is a chance for someone to attack and try to spoil the fun of the quick men, but the climb isn’t really long or hard enough to make a difference. I would be surprised if this didn’t end in a big sprint.
Weather
With a long spell in the desert, the riders will certainly be nervous. We’ve seen that it doesn’t take much to split this peloton and as they hit the middle of the stage we’ll have a wind of around 10mph, but it’s coming from the West. This means a tailwind and unless it swings round a little, it won’t split the bunch. By the time the peloton hit the coast and turn left for the road to the finishing line, the wind is coming from the North, making it a headwind.
Finale
There are a few roundabouts, but this is an easy finish for the sprint trains. The long finishing straight means timing your run to the front is incredibly important, it’s easy to be there too early and get swamped.
Contenders
Fernando Gaviria – delivered a huge sprint on Monday, blowing everyone away. The big crash ended his hopes today, he’ll be super motivated to make up for that in this finish. It is clear that in Alexander Kristoff, UAE have the fastest lead out man in the bunch. They weren’t brilliant place on Monday, but Kristoff jumped onto the wheel of Michael Mørkøv and the rest was history. Gaviria’s sprint was very powerful, and he has to start the stage as the favourite.
Elia Viviani – didn’t have the power to pass Gaviria, on Monday, but this is a new day. QuickStep will again let the other teams fight for control of the bunch, then they will arrive in a three, with 600m to go. They usually get this spot on, but not so much on Monday. The sprinting unit rarely make the same mistake twice, I expect them to be superglued together for the finish.
Caleb Ewan – I found it very interesting that Caleb said today he thought the Hatta Dam was his best chance of a win this week. Does he not back himself to win a sprint finish? Lotto did a good job of placing him in the opening sprint stage and Ewan raced to 3rd place. Today he was immense, taking a relatively easy win on the dam, surely he’ll back himself to win this stage. His sprint train hasn’t quite clicked yet, but Roger Kluge is a hugely impressive final man. With the confidence that comes from winning, I expect to see Ewan battling for the win.
Sam Bennett – started Monday’s sprint in a horrible position and never recovered. I have a huge amount of time for the Irishman and he can genuinely claim to be one of the fastest sprinters in the peloton. He needs the men in front of him to step up and deliver him into a better position as he can challenge for the win.
Marcel Kittel – without Rick Zabel, the closing kilometres are going to be hard for the big German. The problem he’ll have is that Marco Haller doesn’t have the kick to get him high up the bunch in the final kilometre. This is a day where they should get Kittel to the front with 2km to go, and let him fend for himself. Stop this coming from deep nonsense!
Phil Bauhaus – Bahrain did a good job of controlling the closing kilometres, on Monday, but the problem is that their number 2, Heinrich Haussler, just isn’t fast enough in the final kilometre. If he is on the front, there will always be quicker riders coming from behind and swamping Bauhaus. Having a quick final man is vital for a rider who wants to win sprints. The fact we have a headwind is good news for the German, coming from slightly deeper might just be the correct tactic.
Marc Sarreau – I do love the FDJ sprint train. They don’t have any big names, but the French squad are masters in the art of sprinting. They made a very good attempt to control the finale, on Monday, but just came to the front 300m too early. Sarreau isn’t in the same league as his rivals, but he is learning and getting faster. If FDJ can nail the lead out, he has a chance of surprising the big boys and making the podium.
Prediction Time
Headwind + Long Straight = Messy Sprint = Elia Viviani.
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David Hunter
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