UAE Tour 2022 – Stage 4 preview
By @EchelonsHub
A surprise emerged at the UAE Tour as Stefan Bissegger overpowered Filippo Ganna to take the win In the race’s sole time-trial. The Swiss took 7 seconds on Ganna in the headwind-blown route, with the GC contenders coming in closely behind as Tom Dumoulin went on to finish third.
Positive: Dumoulin and Pogacar proving their worth and entering the mountains on the first positions out of the GC contenders.Bissegger taking EF’s first win of the season.
Negative: Ganna failing to take the win. Bardet loosing 32 seconds to Dumoulin, Konrad 34, Hindley 38, Mader 44, Hirt 47. Bad results for some riders who are looking to place high in the GC and already enter the mountains with a meaningful disadvantage.
The Route
The first mountain challenge of the race. It’s a flat day, however not pan-flat as we have seen these past few days. This will mean little to no fatigue until the bottom of the final climb unless the weather plays a role, and the start of the ascent is very gradual into Jebel Jais.
20.7Km at 5.5% and it’s a completely constant ascent. To create gaps here is very hard as the peloton should be able to ride it all in the big ring with the power this peloton is capable of putting on. Normally, it will either be a sprint finish or a very late attack to succeed, although this year this ascent is the first one so that should help with the agressivity.
The Weather
Regular temperatures, at a point before the final climb there will be a northwestern breeze which may put some riders on alert as it may come as a crosswind but nothing too strong. The final climb will not have wind likely so all normal.
The Favourites
Tadej Pogacar – On paper, unbeatable in a stage like this, however that’s just on paper. UAE have not only Pogacar but João Almeida to play and with Dumoulin ahead they won’t just want to race defensively, they can actually use their numbers to attack the final climb. Questions over his form after a bout of Covid are fair, however he was very strong today so that shouldn’t be an issue.
Adam Yates – Not his type of climb, however Yates loves racing in the UAE and has serious climbing legs when at his best. INEOS will be fully focused in him, he’ll be dangerous.
Aleksandr Vlasov – After winning the Volta a Comunitat Valenciana he’s a contender for the win here, the long not-so-steep climb will suit him very well, but truth be told he’s not an explosive rider so I don’t know if he can actually distance the former two riders. Nevertheless he’s dangerous, BORA have also Jai Hindley and Patrick Konrad who can be played, and have every reason to attack the race.
Tom Dumoulin – In theory Dumoulin should love this climb as it’s very constant and not steep, besides it’s the only climb of the day. Not being in the race lead means he won’t be pushed into unnecessary work, however the rivals know he is the one that needs to be attacked, will be interesting to see how his return to top level leadership comes.
The win should be between these riders if it comes down to power. However this is a strategical climb where drafting is important and in the end may not make a move which gives opportunity for others to succeed, like Vingegaard last year. Hence the range of favourites expands, tomorrow we’ll get the true form the climbers have but there are names that obviously must be pointed out like Bahrain duo Pello Bilbao and Gino Mader or EF’s Ruben Guerreiro and Neilson Powless who can take advantage of their numerical prowess.
On the individual leaders’ side the likes of Jan Hirt and Fausto Masnada who headlined the Tour of Oman will be good names to have under eye, the likes of Romain Bardet, David de la Cruz are also to consider and can surprise.
Inside The Bus
This morning I talk to…
#21 Jasper Philipsen – Good thing I caught you today Jasper I don’t have to give you directions! We have two more sprints incoming and a points jersey to defend, today is not the day to do so, it’s about saving up as much as possible, good thing the climb isn’t hard.
#174 Damien Howson – Unfortunately you have already lost time, somehow… So I’m not exactly sure what will happen, a GC stint was very much ruined by that minute on stage one. Nevertheless you’re our only climber so we’ll support you, competition is fierce so I wouldn’t expect a win but it’s a climb that suits you, you can see it more as a test day, hang with the peloton for as long as possible and see how the form is evolving.
#61 Jai Hindley – Tomorrow is an important day for us. Aleksandr is well positioned, he will stay with Pogacar all the way to the line and try to keep the gap, win a couple seconds if possible. This climb will be easy for you, it’s a big ring climb most of the way, numbers can be of benefit to us and we can attack with you and Patrick, you both lost a lot of time in the TT and have to make up. Now, only attack if there’s a lull in the action, if someone is pacing don’t, it’s just wasted energy. Ideally you and Patrick can join or make some attacks and put UAE under pressure, hopefully they don’t cover you.
Prediction Time
⭐⭐⭐Pogacar, A.Yates
⭐⭐Vlasov, Almeida, Dumoulin
⭐Hindley, Konrad, Bilbao, Mader, Powless, Hirt, Masnada, Bardet
Honestly I don’t think this is a stage that will see much happen in the GC besides the shedding of those who won’t be a part. A late attack may succeed as UAE have Almeida to attack besides Pogacar, nevertheless I’ll go with the win of logic and say Pogacar will win and take the lead of the race.
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