By @EchelonsHub

Jebel Jais is always a climb where differences aren’t made, however today’s ascent was more attacked then normal. With UAE trying to set the race on fire several times, Jan Hirt doing the same, but a sprint was inevitable as UAE leadout Tadej Pogacar into the final meters and the Slovenian beat Adam Yates and Aleksandr Vlasov to the finish.

Positive: Pogacar taking the win and race lead of the race. Ganna resisting the pace and almost jumping into the race lead.

Negative: Dumoulin, Masnada and Konrad were between the riders loosing time on the ascent, with Dumoulin the hardest hit.

The Route

Back into the flat lands. Nothing much to analyze here, the race will be done by the sea all day long through similar roads, the sprint tomorrow will be at the Al Marjan islands in what can once again be called a very simple and straightforward leadout.

The riders will ride close to the finish with some kilometers to go, the road has a slight bend to the left throughout the final kilometers, and then a slight bend to the right to finish it off.

The Weather

A slight breeze from the northwest.

The Favourites

Leadouts:

Sam Bennett – Danny van Poppel – Shane Archbold – Ryan Mullen

Jasper Philipsen – Jonas Rickaert – Kristian Sbaragli – Robert Stannard

Mark Cavendish – Michael Morkov – Stan van Tricht – Stijn Steels

Dylan Groenewegen – Kaden Groves – Luka Mezgec

Arnaud Démare – Jacopo Guarnieri – Ramon Sinkeldam – Miles Scotson

Pascal Ackermann – Max Richeze – Mikkel Bjerg

Rudy Barbier – Rick Zabel – Daryl Impey – Alex Dowsett

Riders like Elia Viviani and Olav Kooij won’t have the leadout of some of the riders above with sprinters, however in this race what we’re seeing is that leadouts do not matter more than instinct position. Riders get to the final kilometers fresh as a daisy and the finales have absolutely no technical features, the run-ins to the line are being chaotic and if you trust too much on a leadout that won’t get the job right then chances are you won’t even sprint to the line. That’s what happened in both sprints already with plenty of world-class sprinters not even being in the Top10.

Marc Sarreau, Cees Bol, Marijn van den Berg, Max Kanter, Emils Liepins, Tom Devriendt, Matteo Malucelli and Sacha Modolo are all riders aswell that will always be considered for the sprint, there is a lot of speed and with ease they should be able to get in the Top10 if they nail the run-up to the line.

Inside The Bus

This morning I talk to…

#47 Johan Price-Pejtersen – Things shouldn’t really get dangerous out there today but with Pello well positioned, and Gino nearby we have to protect their GC ambitions. Stick to Pello, drive him near the front during the day and keep him at the front when the pace ramps up until the 3Km to go mark.

#112 Tom Devriendt – It’s a good day for you Tom, we want you in the sprint once again. Unfortunately we’re down to 5 guys and Jan needs to be protected, Louis and Rein will keep an eye on him but they can’t burn their legs here as they also eye a little GC spot, so only Julius will be able to help you there towards the end. But hey, no problem, you’ve finished both sprints in the Top10 with no leadout and that’s amazing, tomorrow is another day to trust your gut follow the right wheels and reel in another strong result.

#25 Scott Thwaites – We have to try and get Jasper to the win here, he’s done it before and he can do it again. Your role won’t be vital, but we are relying on you to keep the breakaway under control, without taking it too hard of course. All the guys will be counting on you so that they can do their job later in the sprint as fresh as possible, in the final kilometers try to keep them in front well positioned until you can’t anymore, ideally into the last 5/6Km.

Prediction Time

⭐⭐⭐Philipsen, Bennett, Cavendish

⭐⭐Groenewegen, Viviani

⭐ Démare, Ackermann, Barbier, Kooij, Bol, Malucelli

I think Bora will net their leadout tomorrow, and with a tailwind sprint I expect Sam Bennett to be strong, and will take the win tomorrow.

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