Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana 2017 – Stage 4 Preview

By David Hunter

Segorbe – Lucena del Cid “Mas de la Costa” 180km

It’s the big day for the GC.

This is a full day of climbing, with an incredible end.

The first of the challenges is Alto de Puertomingalvo, 4.4km at 6.8%. It is the first cat 1 climb of the race, but the stage is all about the final cat 1 climb.

Mas de la Costa is 3.9km at 12.8%, but the final 2.4km is at 20.8%. You will hopefully remember it from the 2016 Vuelta, where Mathias Frank took a brilliant stage win. The climb is brutally steep, one of those efforts you associate with the Vuelta. Coming at the beginning of February, this will be a huge test for the peloton.

Weather

Cloudy with a chance of rain throughout the stage. There will be a fairly constant westerly wind throughout the whole stage, but it doesn’t look strong enough to split the field. However, the peloton will need to be aware as Movistar will look to take advantage of every opportunity.

Contenders

Nairo Quintana – it wasn’t the TTT Movistar hoped for, but since then, Quintana has looked in good form. He was attacking during stage 2 and was even high up during the stage 3 sprint. It seems to me that Nairo is in fine form. In terms of the GC, he is 54 seconds behind Greg Van Avermaet and Hermans and 10 seconds behind Roche. There are other riders in between, but I don’t think they are real challengers. The time he made on Wout Poels, on stage 2, looks like a crucial move. Quintana will be looking for the 10 bonus seconds to help with his bid for the GC win.

Wout Poels – after a strong TT, it was looking good for the Sky rider, but he lost crucial time on Thursday. He now finds himself 4 seconds behind Quintana, a gap he will find difficult to make up. This time last year, Poels was in outstanding form, but he wasn’t competing against Quintana. Losing ground during stage 2 was a sign that Poels isn’t at the same level as last year.

Dan Martin – the Irishman is another who benefited from a strong TTT. He is sandwiched between Quintana and the Sky duo, Kwiatkowski and Poels. The length and gradient of the climb should really suit the Ardennes expert and he’ll be looking forward to battling this out with the other climbers.

Davide Formolo – the climb should suit his abilities. Riding without hope of threatening on GC, the Italian could well be allowed some freedom. He finished 7th on the Queen stage here in 2016, but I expect him to better this year. A definite contender for the stage.

Thibaut Pinot – was ill and lost time in the TTT, but returned to a much better level on Thursday, but then lost lots of time on Friday. I’m not sure even Pinot knows what to expect. Might just go in the morning break and see what happens.

Primoz Roglic – was going into this race with high hopes after a successful winter, but all that changed after 5km of the TTT. He endured a pretty terrible day, but then recovered to finish 3rd on stage 2. Could well surprise in this stage.

Michele Scarponi – it was heartening to see the old timer do well on Thursday, I think he could go well in this stage too. At 37 years of age, he is showing no signs of slowing down. Currently 18th on GC, he looks set for a place in the top 10.

Adam Yates – hasn’t been too interested in the race so far. However, he might have been saving his legs for this stage. It’s hard to imagine that boy him and Simon have come here just for training.

Ben Hermans – currently the man to beat for the overall win. He ended 2016 with a fine run of form in Burgos, the Vuelta and Abu Dhabi. He has a nice lead over the other riders, especially considering the length of the climb. It should be fascinating to see if he can hang on.

Prediction Time

Can anyone stop Nairo? That is the question that needs answered. I picked him as the winner before the race started and I’ve not seen anything to change my mind. Quintana for the stage and GC.

*Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana 2017 – Overall Preview

David Hunter

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