Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana 2022 – Stage 5 Preview

By @EchelonsHub

Matteo Moschetti emerged winner from a chaotic sprint in the 4th stage of the Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana. It was an easily controlled yet tense stage but in the end there was no interruption to the sprinters’ dominance. In the final kilometers Quick-Step and Intermarché took control of the peloton but none managed to profit from it as Trek’s Matteo Moschetti outsprinted the field, finishing in front of Manuel Peñalver and Alexander Kristoff.

Positive: Moschetti taking a surprising win, Peñalver also a big surprise although he was visibly unsatisfied after the finish.

Negative: Jakobsen blocked in the sprint, Quick-Step didn’t manage to do a good job leading him out today. DSM and Jumbo-Visma didn’t start the stage due to a covid outbreak currently in this peloton.

The Route

The final stage starts on the outskirts of Valencia and does a little loop until return to the big city. There’s no filling up, this final day only has 91.5 kilometers on the menu making it one of the shortest and surely quickest race days of the year (excluding time-trials). All flat, no pan-flat, but no climb that needs to be taken into consideration.

A furious finale is expected, with wide roads and fresh leadouts, speeds will be crazy.

And the finale, fast. Wide roads will make it rather safe, in the final 1.5Km the riders will re-enter normal streets within the city and go through two roundabouts before making it to the finish. A rather sketchy finale, because of the freshness of the riders and the urgency to position the sprinters well at the roundabouts mainly.

The Weather

Little bit of a breeze from the southeast, but it shouldn’t make much of a difference. As for the sprint it’ll be covered inside the city, a tiny headwind is possible though.

Breakaway Chances: 15%

Low, but definitely quite a lot more possible than today. When you have only 91 kilometers to race it’ll go by incredibly fast, it’s unlikely but if you get a group of strong rouleurs in front and they a few minutes of lead it can be quite a challenge to bring them back.

The Favourites

Fabio Jakobsen – Blocked today, but he is still the fastest sprinter in the race by what we’ve seen in stage 2. Today was a bad day for Quick-Step, their usual dominance in the leadout field didn’t work, but if everything goes to normal tomorrow they should bounce back.

Alexander Kristoff – He doesn’t seem to have the speed of the past, but it can also be due to a lack of that top form, it’s easy to forget it’s still early February and his goals lie later in the spring. Intermarché have done a brilliant job leading him out so far, for sure he’ll have another opportunity.

Juan Sebastian Molano – Finished 7th today, not a bad result but not as brilliant as in the second stage. Without Gibbons in the leadout it’ll be harder, but he’s definitely got the form. 

Elia Viviani – Has shown the sprining ability but not so much the positioning. If he gets it right he can fight for the win, but It doesn’t seem like it’ll be this week.

Matteo Moschetti – He’s a top sprinter but rather inconsistent. Today was a good day, if he can replicate his positioning then for sure he’ll be a headache to his rivals.

Home rider Manuel Peñalver is also surely a big wildcard for tomorrow, he looked very fast today and has had the positioning dialed in despite an inferior level of leadout. Stanislaw Aniolkowski is the other contender from the PCT ranks, usually thrives in chaotic sprints and I expect the same tomorrow, Timothy Dupont also presents a decent chance of a result, specially if they work together well.

Inside The Bus

This morning I talk to…

#122 Marc Brustenga – Marc, we meet again… The mission is the same mate, we have to give Matteo the chance to fight for the win. He did it today, we’re shocked but the job is done so we go without pressure for this one. You get Jacopo and Markus in your wheel and power in the front for as long as possible in the final kilometers, it’s valuable experience.

#204 Giovanni Carboni – There isn’t much to do Giovanni, we want to try and get Marco in position for a good result but it’s not your job to do so. Stay with the guys, if there’s something where help is needed be there for them, but don’t take big risks.

#61 Yukiya Arashiro – It’s not exactly the kind of finale for him but talk to Matej. If he wants to go for the sprint then make sure you’re there and help leading him out, it’s a short stage so everyone will have the energy, he’s good with positioning but help where possible. If not then relax, the guys will roll around In the peloton, make sure they’re safe and have what they need.

Prediction Time

⭐⭐⭐ Jakobsen

⭐⭐Moschetti, Viviani, Kristoff, Molano

⭐Aniolkowski, Dupont, Peñalver, Mozzato, Mohoric

I’ll keep the reasons the same, today was not a normal sprint where Quick-Step failed, tomorrow the engine should be back and running and Jakobsen will close off the race with a bang.

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Rúben Silva

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