Vuelta a Andalucía 2019 – Stage 4 preview
By David Hunter
Armilla – Granada 116.8km
Time for the Queen stage.
Just 116.8km and with the ascents of Alto del Purche and Alto de Hazallanas, this is going to be a lot of fun! Due to the length of the stage and a hungry Astana squad, I don’t think the break has much of a chance. The big question is when will Astana blow the race to pieces? The answer is Alto del Purche.
8km at 8.1% is perfect for Astana to smash this race to bits. They have the firepower in the squad and will want to use this opportunity to slim the bunch down and remove as many of the other team’s domestiques as they can. They won’t launch any of their team leaders, there’s too much ground to cover before Alto de Guejar Sierra. That climb leads straight into the big one.
7km at 9.5%, but the opening 4km is unreal! This is where we’ll see Astana launch some of their options. Sitting with Bilbao, Izagirre and Fuglsang all within reach of the win puts them into a very strong position. The big problem for the attackers is the 21.8km from the crest to the finishing line in Granada. That gives the chasing group a good chance of chasing down a solo rider and setting up a sprint finish. It’s up to Astana to stop this from happening.
Will Wellens Survive?
He and his team are going to come under extreme pressure. The team does have some climbing talent, but I’m not sure they’ll cope with a flying Astana squad. Wellens will hope that Marczyński and Vanendert will hang around for most of the final climb, but I don’t see that happening.
Looking at the length of the stage and the difficulty of the climbs, I’m not sure Wellens has what it takes to survive when Astana lift the pace. He is a brilliant rider, one of my favourites, but it would be a surprise to see him climbing these mountains with riders like Fuglsang and Izagirre.
Tactics
Astana and Mitchelton-Scott have the riders required to hurt everyone else. The bunch will be tiny on the early slopes of Hazallanas, then the attacks will fly. Astana are in the best position with 3 riders in the top 6, all sitting within 28 seconds of Wellens. Mitchelton-Scott are strong, but only really have one option as Adam Yates sits 1:04 behind on GC. If he attacks, the others don’t have to respond immediately. If they get rid of Wellens early on, the stage should be relatively straightforward for Astana, but they’ll want the stage and the GC win.
Weather
Another great day, I do wish I was in Andalucía.
Contenders
Jakob Fuglsang – was a domestique in Murcia, this could well be his chance to shine. His best ever TT result has put him into a wonderful position overall. Of the GC riders, he has one of the fastest sprints, which means he’ll be happy with a reduced sprint, if Wellens has been dropped. On the other hand, he looks to be climbing well and he also descends better than most, the Dane could be used as an attacking option on the final climb, especially if Wellens is still in the group.
Ion Izagirre – the Basque rider will have been a little disappointed with his TT. He is now 14 seconds behind Wellens and 7 seconds behind Fuglsang. This means that he should be plan B for Astana, not plan A. The good news for Izagirre is that if Astana are looking for a solo win, a large amount of luck will decide which of their riders gets away. Like Fuglsang, he can descend and sprint well. He’ll be a hard man to beat.
Pello Bilbao – the fastest sprinter of the GC riders, but as he sits 28 seconds off the lead, he’ll have to do some domestique work on the final climb. The amount of work he does really depends on Tim Wellens. If the Belgian is dropped, Astana can ride for a reduced sprint, where Bilbao takes the stage and Fuglsang the GC. If Wellens survives, Bilbao will have to use a lot of energy on the final climb, trying to launch his team leaders.
Luis León Sánchez – plan D for Astana.
Steven Kruijswijk – a strong TT puts him into a great position. The problem for Kruijswijk is the strength of Astana and Mitchelton-Scott makes it almost impossible for him to win the stage. The Dutch climber will be happy with a good day in the saddle and finishing with the front group.
Jack Haig – it will be interesting to see how the Aussies approach the stage. I think they’ll sit back and see what Astana throw at them. They will be confident that a lot of their riders will survive deep into the race, giving them an advantage. The problem they have is a lack of a sprint, I think all three Astana leaders can beat Haig and Adam Yates in a sprint. Haig is enjoying a fine start to the season and he is a brilliant climber, but the descent into Granada is bad news for him. Winning the stage will be complicated.
Adam Yates – can he repeat his Valenciana performance? I’m not sure why he was so poor in the opening stage, even more confusing was why he lost 28 seconds on Thursday? His TT showed that his legs are strong, and he could well have some freedom as he sits a little down on GC. His team allowed him to go for a stage win in Valenciana, but I wonder if his role will be different in this race with Haig sitting in a strong overall position. If allowed to attack, he has the ability to distance the rest and take a solo win.
Prediction Time
Astana win, don’t they always just now? After riding for the others in Murcia, I think we’ll see Jakob Fuglsang take the stage and yellow jersey.
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David Hunter
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