Vuelta a Andalucía 2022 – Stage 2 Preview

By @EchelonsHub

The breakaway conquered the opening day of the race as it built up a massive gap early in the day and kept it into the finale, taking advantage of the lack of a race leader to capitalize on deorganization. From the break, it was a sprint to the line, and Rune Herregodts was the winner taking the biggest win of his career. The talented Belgian time-trialist beat Stephen Bassett and Ander Okamika to the line and is the first leader of the race. 

Positive: Sport Vlaanderen got a brilliant result to start off their season.  

Negative: Nothing to note. 

The Route

3000 meters of climbing on a classic day of rolling hills in Andalucia. Nothing but up and down all day long, with no big climb but with a big amount of repeated efforts necessary to go over the day. Will it all make a difference though? Unlikely, except if there’s an elusive breakaway where the stage is fought between, if the peloton is expected to fight for the stage win it is unlikely that anything will happen before the final climb. 

In Alcalá La Real, like some of the finishes in the race, is a hilltop finish in a small town with very traditional looks. It’s 3 kilometers long but will be discussed at the end, as in the final 500 meters the road narrows, tarmac turns into classic rugged pavement and in the final few hundred meters it switches yet again for layed stones. A very steep twisty finale, a sprint is expected between those who’ve resisted and positioning will be crucial. 

The Weather

Hot temperatures in the 20’s and no wind. 

Breakaway Chances: 10% 

I’ll rate it as possible but very unlikely. Stages like this are favourable for breakaways, today it was a lucky group as the peloton absolutely took an incredibly easy pace over the first climb and handed the win to the front group. That isn’t likely to happen again tomorrow as the World Tour teams just gave out a win, and still burnt themselves chasing, so here they’ll control better. If anything, Sport Vlaanderen will want to control the stage to at least have a chance to keep the race lead. 

The Favourites 

Simon Yates – Looked very good here, on his best form he can thrive in steep hilltops, he finished well positioned today and has good signs towards tomorrow. 

Benoît Cosnefroy – Sharp puncheur, ideal for the final kilometer tomorrow. Questions lie over with what legs will he reach to that point. 

Alexey Lutsenko – Good form he’s got, great combination of climber and puncheur, he loves steep gradients and tomorrow is very well suited to the Kazakh. 

Alessandro Covi – The fastest by far today in the final hilltop. Sure enough tomorrow is different but the Italian comes with great form and if it comes down to the final few hundred meters tomorrow we may see him thrive again. 

The list of favourites can expand far and wide though. Just how much the puncheurs will suffer is anyone’s guess, riders like Simon Clarke, Gonzalo Serrano and Mikkel Honoré may very well play a role in the final pitch to the line if the climbs aren’t raced that hard. If they are, the more pure climbers may benefit Jack Haig specially, others like Carlos Rodriguez, Miguel Angel Lopez, Wout Poels, Mauri Vansevenant and Emanuel Buchmann are worthy of a mention. You have also the case of Michael Woods who is well suited to the finale but was reportedly sickish before the race and isn’t likely to have the best form. 

Inside The Bus 

This morning I talk to… 

#154 Xabier Isasa – Great ride today Xabier! Right move and almost to the win, it’s a good result which you can take motivation from. Only 12 seconds away from the race lead, we’ll protect you tomorrow as it would be huge! What you have to do exactly is survive, it won’t be easy but you should be able to reach the final climb in the peloton, and from there on it’s just trying to limit the losses as much as possible for the end. 

#176 José Félix Parra – Let’s see José, you’ve got some decent form, I want to see what you’re capable of doing today as you may tilt the GC here. Plan is simple, ride the wheels for as long as possible, it shouldn’t be too complicated until the final climb, there it’s about trying to get yourself very near the front towards the final kilometer and then just pace it and hang on for dear life. 

#125 Stefano Oldani – Tomorrow you may have an opportunity to sprint it out. Here, just focus on hanging around in the peloton, getting the race legs sharp and staying safe. 

Prediction Time 

⭐⭐⭐S.Yates, Lutsenko, Covi ⭐⭐Cosnefroy, Serrano, S.Clarke, Woods ⭐Honoré, Rodriguez, MA.Lopez, Poels, Vansevenant, Buchmann 

I think Simon Yates will win tomorrow. Many contenders but it’s my guess, he’ll have great legs for the final steep pitch and there he should be quite strong into the line. 

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