Vuelta a Andalucía 2022 – Stage 3 Preview

By @EchelonsHub

An explosive hilltop finish delivered what it promised, as a peloton rushing up the tight streets of Alcalá La Real made way for Alessandro Covi to take his second win in a week and also the second win of his career. After looking brilliant yesterday, Covi was again the fastest today in the final climb, and he went on to grab the win and the race lead, with Miguel Angel Lopez and Ivan Sosa finishing second and third. 

Positive: Covi taking another win, both Lopez and Sosa looking quite sharp despite the lack of an actual mountain.  

Negative: Simon Yates but specially Alexey Lutsenko with disappointing performances, riders like Landa, Kamna and Honoré who could also be in the fight lost time, and Woods did not start the stage. 

The Route

Another complicated day where predicting what will happen. Breakaway day? Very possibly, the first half of the stage is very hard, full of climbing where a strong group can take the helm of the race. 

Only if a team(s) commits to chasing early on is catching it possible. If a peloton is to discuss the stage a sprint is likely, albeit on slightly uphill gradients inside the town of Otura on the outskirts of Granada. 

If not, then the two last climbs may play a crucial role. 7.5Km at 3.9% with 41.5Km to go and 3.4Km at 6.2% with 31.5Km to go. These are crucial points to attack, the final true uphill sections where, with the fatigue built throughout the day, someone may attack and realistically look to make differences. 

The final kilometers are relatively tactical but let’s be honest, there won’t be any furious leadout race, and with the uphill gradients found in the last 2 kilometers it shouldn’t be too complicated, with an interesting mix of riders eyeing the win. 

The Weather 

Warm temperatures and no wind, again. Fairly simple here. 

Breakaway Chances: 60% 

It’s a hard stage. Will there be teams trying to control? For sure, UAE for natural reasons, Intermarché have been doing a lot of work for nothing but they’ll have a reason to tomorrow as Ghirmay is a big contender, possibly Quick-Step and TotalEnergies will help. 

However with the very hard start an set of climbs during the day it will be very complicated to reel in a breakaway if it’s strong. Will be a very tight balance. 

The Favourites 

Biniam Ghirmay – Started the season off very well in Mallorca. His problem is that the stages that suit him are also the ones that suit the breakaway, but this being the only “sprint” stage Intermarché can surely find some alliances and succeed and bringing it to a bunch sprint, where Ghirmay on paper should be one of the fastest. 

Florian Sénéchal – Quick-Step have some of their classics riders here for preparation, however there’s no reason why Sénéchal couldn’t be a favourite in a finale like this, as long as he makes it over the climbs. 

Niccolo Bonifazio – He can climb at times, today he looked good and TotalEnergies will certainly deposit a lot of trust in the Italian as he is one of the fastest sprinters at the startlist and this is his opportunity.  

Dion Smith – Not the fastest sprinter, but he can climb alongside his fast finish. A great combo for such a stage, like Nick Schultz really, but need the form and some luck for the finale. 

Vincenzo Albanese – One of the most underated riders in the peloton. He can climb, he can sprint, and he can be an ally within the sprinter team group. Would not be surprised to see him take a win, which would be huge for EOLO. 

Alessandro Covi – No reason to ignore him, he’s clearly on great form and is very sharp, the sprint is slightly uphill and although for some reason there are no bonifications, Covi can very well see himself take another win. 

Gonzalo Serrano – Another rider in form. Today he suffered at the end but that was expected, in the opening day he performed, he’s not a sprinter but is an incredibly sharp puncheur, who can benefit from a sprint out of a reduced peloton if he’s lucky. 

The likes of Jhonatan Narvaez, Stefano Oldani, Francisco Galván, Sep Vanmarcke or Matteo Trentin are also possible options in a sprint, most importantly without any overwhelming favourites, some of these teams may look to help with a chase a bit which may be very important for the chances of a sprint finish.  

If a breakaway is to succeed however, the list goes far and wide, as it’s a complicated stage but it will be decided on rolling roads which sees plenty of riders as possibilities for this one. Riders like Greg van Avermaet, Oliver Naesen or Zdenek Stybar could for sure test their form in a day like this, I wouldn’t be surprised, but more realistically names like Stan Dewulf, Nelson Oliveira, Magnus Sheffield, Chad Haga or Matteo Sobrero should have the freedom but at the same time the quality to take a stage win, although this list may widely vary according to the timing a breakaway goes up the road. 

Inside The Bus 

This morning I talk to… 

#106 Taco van der Hoorn – We have to help Biniam today as it’s his only chance to take a stage win, if everything goes normal in this race. For you Taco it’s a buildup race, no stage suited to you, we’ve been working and that’s exactly what you’ve got to do tomorrow, help control the breakaway right from the start and never let the gap grow. Get the pace nice and high all the way until the final two climbs, there other guys will pick it up, but you must push in the flat where you can really drill into the break’s lead. 

#93 Stan Dewulf – We go wild today Stan. We’ve got the classics guys here for some reason and this is the day where we attack to try and get the stage. You, Greg and Oliver mainly are all great options to get in a breakaway and drill it in a day like this, we have to be aggressive from the start and make sure at least one of you is in the breakaway, as that’s how we win here. Ideally, either in the start of the stage of the climb into the first IS you will be in some moves, get away and then try to withstand the attacks on the climbs, the final half hour of racing is perfect for your abilities, if a break succeeds for sure it will be won with a late attack and with the power you’ve got I trust you’re capable of winning. 

#7 Harold Tejada – Sit in the peloton and make sure you don’t loose time. Here we’ll protect Miguel, but it shouldn’t be a dangerous day, make sure you stay with the guys so as to be an option for the GC in the weekend. 

Prediction Time 

⭐⭐⭐Ghirmay, O.Naesen, GV.Avermaet 

⭐⭐Sénéchal, Bonifazio, Albanese, Vanmarcke, Haga 

⭐Smith, Covi, Serrano, Dewulf, Oldani, Galvan, Trentin, Narvaez, Sheffield 

I’m going with Sep Vanmarcke. I think he’s got the legs to take a win from the breakaway if he’s there, but is also a very plausible choice in case things come back to a sprint, very complete rider who has shown good form in Besseges recently. 

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