Vuelta a Andalucía 2022 – Stage 4 Preview

By @EchelonsHub

Magnus Sheffield won the third stage after a late attack in Andalucia. A stage made for a breakaway but with no breakaway to contest the win, it looked like it was going to a sprint but in the final climb several attacks broke the group and then with Bahrain working the peloton never managed to come back. A late crash disrupted the group, and from the remnants of who was left Sheffield managed to attack and put a gap in the group which was never closed. Simon Clarke and Stan Dewulf rounded up the podium. 

Positive: Sheffield getting his first pro win. 

Negative: Wouldn’t say properly negative, but interesting how Kamna, Caruso and Landa all purposefuly lost time today, when they could be in the GC fight. 

The Route

The queen stage? Perhaps, if it’s brutally attacked at the start, if not then a breakaway day for sure. The Vuelta a Andalucia organizers have put their best efforts into making stages with unpredictable outcomes.

Early in the day the riders will find the Alto del Purche, a steep, brutal climb with a steep final ramp which is ideal to explode the race wide open. The riders that are in front after this ascent will be crucial to know where the stage goes on from here, as the next 50 kilometers bring nothing else than roller-coaster roads after a fast descent. It doesn’t get easy or flat towards the finish aswell, with several hilltops during the day, with the final kilometers included. 

The riders will approach Baza via some hilly terrain which is ideal for late attacks where it isn’t hard to succeed even if alone. No doubt a whole peloton will not be here contending for a stage, or if a breakaway then fatigue will weight on many riders’ legs, there are two small hilltops summiting with 16.5 (1Km at 4.5%) and 8.5 (2.4Km at 4.8%) kilometers to go to go which should be nice launchpads for a decisive move, as after them much of the way to the line is on a fast downhill road into town. 

The Weather 

Slight breeze from the east towards the end of the stage, shouldn’t influenciate the day much however there will be a headwind in those final hilltops that’ll make things a bit more complicated. 

Breakaway Chances: 60% 

The stage is going to be hard. It is certain that big attacks will come early on, but the GC riders will all surely counter-attack and create a short group at the top. The first 1/1:30h will be furious, but from there on it gets easier. If the race is completely exploded the moves will go on, if a group of over 30 riders or so get over that portion in front then attacks will come and those riders will not be easy to catch as an organized chase is unlikely.  

There’s also the possibility that GC riders don’t go all-in in the first climb, and a group of climbers sets off, in this scenario it would also be very hard to catch that group because the stage is easier towards the end. Also, there are no outright favourites for the day, so there won’t exactly be many teams wanting to work on a day like this. 

The Favourites 

Simon Yates – He’s an absolute maniac when it comes to performance inconsistency. After looking great on the opening day he had a terrible finale in stage two, and today he was on the attack and almost splitting the GC to bits. Which version of Yates will we see tomorrow? If it’s the good one I expect a lot of attacking. 

Astana – With Miguel Angel Lopez looking sharp and Alexey Lutsenko very well suited to the day I expect great things from Astana. Today is the day with the hardest climbs, so they have to attack. 

Bahrain – Poels and Haig in it for the GC, Landa and Caruso for stage win purposes. What they will be doing is uncertain, however Bahrain has many cards to play and they have very real chances of netting a stage win. 

Alessandro Covi – If it all comes back together after the first climb it will be very hard to distance the Italian. He’s got the form, the climbs towards the finish are punchy, and he can sprint, will always be a favourite. 

The list of favourites goes on and on. In the climber territory you have the likes of Carlos Rodriguez, Emanuel Buchmann, Mauri Vansevenant, Ivan Sosa, Domenico Pozzovivo, Ben O’Connor and surprinsgly Cristian Rodriguez who can do very well here. On those that’ll benefit from an easier race, decided in a similar way as today, the likes of Simon Clarke, Jhonatan Narvaez, Benoit Cosnefroy or Magnus Sheffield himself who can do some good. 

On breakaway possibilities I definitely point out Lennard Kamna as a main contender seeing how he purposefully lost time today. Besides the Bahrain riders, Eddie Dunbar and Ben Turner are on the watchlist for a breakaway, if it is indeed not settled in Purche. 

Inside The Bus 

This morning I talk to… 

#156 Gotzon Martín – Gotzon there’s no easy way to say this, you will be dropped in the opening climb. Pace up it, no point in going over what you can do, goal is to finish the climb in a group not too far from the head of the race. What we hope for is that the race calms down after the climb, you can get back to the peloton and then attack, try to sneak off with some riders and form a breakaway, that’s the only way to get a good result here. 

#44 Domen Novak – Domen today is an interesting day. It’s February, we’re here to have some fun. Today we go on the attack, as soon as Alto del Purche starts you hit the front, we have Jack and Wout who are here to fight for the overall, Mikel and Damiano who are just for the form. We will attack the climb hard, Mikel and Damiano will attack, the others will be eyeing the other leaders. We want to make it as hard as possible, they’ll be in your wheel and you do a 3/4Km TT up the opening gradients to really suffocate the group. From there on rest up, find a group and let’s see what happens after. It is not a day for us to pace slowly but attack hard, so if you come back just stay with the guys and keep them protected. 

#173 Raúl García Pierna  – Raúl, I repeat to you what I told the Euskaltel guy, same words exactly. 

Prediction Time 

⭐⭐⭐Landa, Kamna ⭐⭐S.Yates, Covi, Lutsenko, MA.Lopez, Haig, Dunbar ⭐Caruso, Poels, Buchmann, Vansevenant, Sosa, C.Rodriguez, Pozzovivo, Narvaez, S.Clarke, Sheffield 

I am going with Lennard Kamna for stage 4. To know what will happen is impossible no matter what you read, it’ll all come down to how the climbers tackle the opening climb. Kamna is in good form, has the freedom in GC to attack and is likely to do at some point like he did today. 

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