Vuelta a Andalucía Ruta Ciclista del Sol 2020 – Stage 3 preview
By David Hunter
Jaén – Úbeda 178km
A stage with many possible outcomes.
The presence of the late cat 2 climb immediately caught my eye, will any team that has a sprinter be confident they’ll survive this? The inclusion of a such a climb cresting with 14km to go is usually wonderful news for the breakaway.
Next thing on my mind is the two cat 1 climbs earlier in the stage. These climbs won’t be done at a crazy pace, but it adds to the general fatigue in the legs of the quick men. To put in simple terms, they will arrive at the cat 2 climb already with sore legs!
Then I see we have an uncategorised climb near the finish, 1.9km at 7.5%, which tops out with under 2km remaining. Even if a sprinter team tries to hold the race together, it will explode at this point and an attacker will take the stage, not a sprinter. This all means we won’t see any of the sprinter teams looking to control the breakaway, so who will?
The GC teams will surely appreciate that although the finale of the stage is tricky, it certainly isn’t hard enough for the main riders to drop each other. If the sprinter teams don’t want to control, and the GC teams don’t see any chance of damaging each other, this can only lead to one thing…
Breakaway Madness
Oh yes, for what feels like the first time in 2020 I sense a real chance for the break to go all the way. I know it, you know it, the teams know it, everyone knows it! The battle to join the morning move should be fierce, especially as the majority of the opening 35km is uphill. The attackers need to force something during this part of the race, as the first of the cat 1 climbs comes at 55km. If the break hasn’t been established yet, this could well turn into a GC day. Breakers, you have been warned!
Climbs
The first of the cat 1 climbs is quite long, but it’s the opening that will hurt, with the first 4.2km rising at 7.2%. As the riders approach the small village at the top, it starts to get super steep and incredibly narrow. A short descent follows before the rest of the climb averages 5.7% for 4.3km.
The second of the cat 1 climbs is 15.4km at 3.7%, with the final 7.3km averaging 6.0%. This is on a fairly good road and is a steady effort for the peloton, but the central section is inconsistent.
This is the cat 2 climb the riders tackle late in the stage, it’s 8.1km at 5.7%. The climb has a consistent gradient, but the length makes it too hard for the sprinters. Remember, it crests with just 14km left in the day.
Don’t we all love a little unclassified bump in the road? 1km at 8.6%, cresting with under 2km to go. This begs to be attacked, and it will. This might even tease some of the GC riders into having a little dig and testing out their rivals.
Finale
Once the final climb is over, the riders turn right and hit the cobbles. Despite being in a town centre, some of these cobbles are actually quite tough. The final 1.5km has a mixture of tough and easy cobbles, it isn’t Paris-Roubaix! The last 300m is quite hard, with difficult cobbles, a climb, and a right-hand bend with 150m to go. This is a difficult end to a surprisingly tough stage.
Weather
Another nice day for the bunch.
Contenders
Matej Mohorič – loves a breakaway! His only win in 2019 was from a morning move in the final stage of the Tour of Poland. He can certainly handle all the hills in this stage, and he packs a fine sprint. Making the break won’t be easy, but he has the power required to make it happen.
Oli Naesen – he’s here to prepare for the classics, I can think of no better way than going for a day out in the break. The slight issue is that Oli could potentially win this stage if a group of 40 riders were together for a sprint, but making that happen will be very difficult. Fingers crossed he goes for the break.
Valerio Conti – another rider with plenty of breakaway experience. He is way down on GC, which should buy him some freedom.
Maurits Lammertink – the Wanty rider was in the break in stage 1, he is a rider who’ll like the look of this stage. He was 2nd in the 2019 Tour de Luxembourg, which means he’ll like the little lump before the finish.
Niki Terpstra – if I was his DS I would tell him about the final 1.6km on cobbles, but I would forget to tell him about the 3500m of climbing before then! Okay, the route is possibly too hilly for him, but he has the quality required to win from the break.
Mikel Iturria – remember his brilliant win at the Vuelta? He knows how to win after a tough day out in the break.
Pello Bilbao – has the fastest finish of the GC riders, but will we get a GC day?
Prediction Time
Got to be a breakaway day for me, unless a rider who is perceived as a GC threat gets in the move. Looking at my list of hopefuls, I’ll go with Matej Mohorič.
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