World Championships 2015 – Individual Time Trial Preview
By David Hunter
Richmond 53km
Time for the big boys to come out and play!
Like the TTT, this is a very fast course. It is full of long straights and not many tight corners. Unlike the under 23 race, the weather should not have any influence in the outcome of the race.
The profile picture makes it look quite challenging, but this is a flat course. We all know the final climb now, but 300m at 5.8% should not be hard enough to decide this race. This will happen on the long straights.
The way I see it, we have 3 contenders for the title: Martin, Dennis and Dumoulin.
Tony Martin – For so long the King of the ITT, winning this title in 2011, 2012 and 2013. He lost to a brilliant Wiggins in 2014 and he’ll be keen to return to the top spot. His 2015 has not been perfect, maybe he is starting to slip a little. He won in the Algarve and in Romandie, but both wins were not easy. Zakarin would have won in Romandie, but punctured. In Algarve, he only beat Malori by under 1 second. Since then he was 2nd in the Tour, beaten by Rohan Dennis and he was only 3rd in Tour du Poitou Charentes. That day he was beaten by Malori and Castroviejo. He competed in Plouay, but was a DNF and he did the same in Quebec and Montreal. This is not his usual preparation for the World Championships, he prefers to do the Tour/Vuelta double. All 3 World Titles have come after this route, so why change? Like many riders he would have been worried about jet-lag. He doesn’t have that to worry about but his lack of competitive form is a concern, as his is 2015 form. Look at 2014, he won TTs in Tirreno, Pais Vasco, Belgium, Suisse(x2), Tour de France and the Vuelta! His 2013 form was just as good with wins in Algarve, Tirreno, Pais Vasco, Romandie, Belgium, Dauphine and the Tour de France. The 2015 Tony Martin does not seem as strong.
Rohan Dennis – For so long the nearly man, the Aussie is really starting to step up. The turning point was his astonishing win in the Tour de France. Since then he won the USA Pro Challenge, at a canter. According to his teammates, he won the TTT, carrying his men around the course. Word from America is that Dennis is on a different level to everyone else. His goal is two golds, he’s half way there. Current form is hugely important and he seems to be above everyone else. Last year, he finished down in 5th position. It would take a sensational performance to go from 5th to 1st, but he’s capable.
Tom Dumoulin – So good for 20 stages of the Vuelta, such a shame there were 21! The Dutchman might only be 24, but he’s in amazing form. TT from has been good, with wins in Pais Vasco, Tour de Suisse and the Vuelta. His win in Spain was frightening. Over 38.7km he put over a minute into the rest of the field, clocking an average speed of 50.46km/h. Considering it was the 17th stage of a demanding race makes it look even better. I thought he would be tired but he looked good in the TTT, helping Giant to 5th place. He also has a good chance of taking a medal in the RR, but he has to be focused on the TT. He was 3rd in 2014 and would be shocked not to win a medal. Unfortunately, disaster has struck. The big man from Holland has a sore bum and look a major doubt for the race and certainly the podium. A real shame considering his form.
I just can’t see any other rider winning the race. Some might disagree with that, especially fans of Adriano Malori and Vasil Kiryienka. The Italian has had another good season, taking wins in San Luis, Pays de la Loire and Tour du Poitou Charentes. That is the problem, he hasn’t taken big wins, in big races. He was 3rd in the Eneco Tour, 8th in the Tour, 4th in Suisse and 2nd in Tirreno. Simply put, Malori hasn’t delivered in the big races.
Taking big wins hasn’t been a problem for Vasil Kiryienka. He won the TT in the Giro and also took gold in the European Games. The longer the distance, the better it is, for the man from Belarus. He averaged an astonishing 51.946 in the Euro Games, over 51.6km. He was 4th in 2014 Worlds, missing the podium by 7 seconds. He’s been better in 2015 and without Wiggins and Cancellara he would really hope to make the podium. The potential injury for Dumoulin really opens the door to the podium and Kiriyenka will hope to set through.
We do have another rider who has won a TT in a World Tour race. Come on now, think hard! It’s Marcin Bialoblocki. He beat Kiryienka by 2 seconds, in the Tour of Poland, clocking an average speed of 52.174km/h over 25km. To say it was a surprise is a slight underexageration! A good performance might just prove his doubters wrong.
Other riders who will hope to challenge for the top 10 include:-
Rigoberto Uran, Jurgen Van Den Broeck, LL Sanchez, Nelson Oliveira, Jan Barta, Maciej Bodnar and Alex Dowsett.
Prediction Time
Rohan Dennis needs to be on a different level to beat Tony Martin and he is! The Aussie to take the first of many gold medals in the ITT.
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