Amstel Gold Race 2018 Preview
By David Hunter
Maastricht – Valkenburg 261km
Time to get the Ardennes started.
With 36 climbs and 3449m of climbing, this is one of the hardest races in the calendar. When you consider the riders cover 261km, you can see why this is a race for the hard men of the sport.
Weather
There is a small chance of rain, it certainly won’t be hot! The wind is around 10mph, coming from the south-west. We have many exposed sections in this race, that wind is enough to put some into difficulty.
Key Climbs
The racing really starts to heat up from the Kruisberg, this is when the main contenders start to come to the front.
Kruisberg – 800m at 8.5%, max of 15.5%.
Eyserbosweg – 1000m at 8%, max of 17.1%.
Fromberg – 1600m at 4.5%, max of 8%.
Keutenberg – 1700m at 5.5%, max of 22%.
Cauberg – 900m at 7%, max of 13.1%.
Geulhemmerberg – 1000m at 6%, max of 8%.
Bemelerbeg – 1200m at 4%, max of 7%.
Tactics
From the Kruisberg to the Keutenberg, we have four climbs in just 10 kilometres. Make no mistake, this is the crucial section of the race. First of all, we will have a full lead out into the Kruisberg. The bunch are on a wide road, then we take a sharp, left hand turn. Straight after, there is another left turn, this time over a very narrow little bridge. This marks the start of the race.
As always in this part of the world, positioning is everything. If you start the Kruisberg too far back, your day is over. Having fast teammates is vital as you approach this section. Once over the top, we have very narrow roads, making it almost impossible to organise a chase.
Most of the big teams will have the same tactics. It is wise to try and get a man up the road early in the day, they will come in handy later. On the Kruisberg, we see the first of the big attacks. If a team can manage to get two men in the front group, they will have a big say in the outcome of the race. If we have single riders from teams, the strongest rider will win the race.
The hardest climb of the day is the Keutenberg, this is where another selection can be made. After this climb we will see the lead group play out the win. The organisers have made the end of the race a little harder, by moving it onto narrow roads and away from the larger roads in the area.
Big Men
A little note for readers. I will not name half of the field in this section, as I feel it devalues it. Listed below are the men who most think have a chance of winning on Sunday, sorry if your man isn’t here!
Alejandro Valverde – the best rider in the world. So far this year he won two stages and the GC in Valenciana, he allowed LL Sanchez to win Murcia, he won 1 stage and the GC in Abu Dhabi, was 4th in Strade, took another two stages and the GC in Catalunya, was a disgraceful 11th in DDV, won GP Miguel Indurain and allowed Amador to win Klasika Primavera de Amorebita. In one word, sensational! Despite his amazing success in the Ardennes, this race has escaped his clutches. He’s managed two 2nd places and also finished 3rd, 4th and 6th. Given his current form, it is unthinkable that he won’t be challenging for the win.
Julian Alaphilippe – stepped up his level in Itzulia, taking the opening two stages. The fact that he faded from the GC race shouldn’t cloud your judgement about his form. The Frenchman was there to test his legs and see what he could do, there was no point going into the red on the demanding stages, when he knew he wasn’t going to take the overall title. Despite his incredible potential, I’m still waiting for Alaphilippe to take big wins in the classic races. He will turn 26 in June, he is around the right age to start taking big wins.
Tim Wellens – simply an amazing athlete. 2018 has been a vintage year for him, with huge wins in Andalucía and De Brabantse Pijl. The Belgian is starting to fulfil his potential and this is a race that suits him. Lotto Soudal have a very strong team and will hope to have two riders in the front group. Wellens has shown that he can attack on the uphill and the flat, he is very dangerous. Can he cope with the mental pressure of being one of the favourites?
Tiesj Benoot – just 24 years old and already one of the best in the world. The sky is the limit for Mr. Benoot! He was been one of the most impressive riders in the recent classics, but has suffered due to the numbers QuickStep have had. He’ll love the amount of climbing in this race, remember he also finished 4th in Tirreno, a ridiculous result. If Lotto play their cards right, they will be able to put their rivals under pressure. After taking a big win in Strade Bianche, this race represents another big chance for the youngster. He made the front selection in 2017, but a punctured ruined his chances of success.
Peter Sagan – this could make me look a bit foolish, but I think it’s too hard for the world champion. After going very deep to win Paris-Roubaix, what will he have left for this “non-monument”? Like a few of his rivals, this is his last race in a demanding recent block.
Greg Van Avermaet – same as above. Last year BMC controlled a lot of the this race, but they seemed to forget to position their leader on the Kruisberg. Given his recent run of form, I can’t see him winning on Sunday.
Michal Kwiatkowski – after winning Tirreno, the Pole has not enjoyed his recent races. He looked missing something in MSR and Iztulia, he will dearly hope to have found that little bit extra this week. The former world champion was just beaten by Gilbert in 2017 and would love to take another big, one day win.
Philippe Gilbert – wasted a lot of energy in Paris-Roubaix with a poorly timed attack. When the race reached the finale, the great man had nothing left in the locker. Back in the Ardennes, where he is brilliant, can he bounce back? QuickStep have a couple of cards to play and Gilbert is clearly one of them. The defending champion knows every inch of this course, something that is a big advantage over some of his rivals.
Wee Men
New section alert! Here are a couple of riders who could surprise and take a step forward in their career.
Jay McCarthy – the 25 year old Aussie continues to make progress. We have all seen him impress in the Tour Down Under, but 2018 has seen a significant step forward, with wins in the Cadel Evans Race and Itzulia. He was 17th here in 2017 and this year he’ll expect a much better result. Riding in the same team as Sagan has pros and cons, hopefully he has some freedom to go and have fun.
Bert Jan Lindeman – Jumbo arrive without a recognised team leader, allowing many of their riders some freedom. Lindeman is one of those steady pros who most of us would love to see doing well. He impressed on Wednesday and actually made the initial selection in this race back in 2017, but couldn’t survive as the pace increased. Certainly a dark horse for the race.
Omar Fraile – a very exciting cyclist and a thoroughly nice guy! After taking a great win in Itzulia, Fraile now looks to try and improve his performance in one day races. In 2017 he attacked in the closing kilometres of Liege-Bastogne-Liege, so the distance won’t be a problem. Astana have a number of options for this race, including the Danish duo, Valgren and Fuglsang. I think they’ll try and get Fraile up the road and see what happens.
Sprint Options
Michael Matthews – after a brilliant 2017, the Aussie is still waiting for his season to really begin. We have seen a couple of flashes of what he is capable of, but he hasn’t seriously challenged for a win. Sunweb have a team who are built around him, after racing in the Basque Country, his condition should be close to 100%.
Sonny Colbrelli – won the bunch sprint in 2017, although it was only for 9th place. The Italian has been in fine form this season, although he didn’t manage to challenge in the recent monuments. His 2nd place on Wednesday, in De Brabantse Pijl, was a sign that his current form is good. Bahrain arrive with a very strong squad, but it’s unlikely they’ll focus solely on Colbrelli.
Prediction Time
For me it is Valverde v Alaphilippe v Wellens v Benoot.
That means Lotto will be able to dominate the closing kilometres and Tiesj Benoot will take another big win in 2018. It is his year!
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