Paris-Roubaix 2018 Preview
By David Hunter
Compiègne – Roubaix 263.5km
The hell of the north.
A race that some love, but others hate. Safe to say that all cycling fans love it!
Cobble Sectors
As in previous years, we have three five star sectors:- Trouée d’Arenberg, Mons-en-Pévèle and Carrefour de l’Abre. This is where we can see a huge selection made, but the four star sectors can also have a big say in the race.
Weather
Sunny and a nice tailwind. After a lot of rain in the last few weeks, some of the sectors needed mud cleared from them, but there is still a lot of mud around.
How Do You Beat QuickStep?
The question that all the teams will be thinking about. Now, we all know that QuickStep have been dominant this season, but this race is the hardest to bully. Unlike other races, teams can force the pace early and force QuickStep into chasing. It is very unlikely that we’ll see the boys in blue have four men in contention with 30km remaining. A combination of hard racing and bad luck makes it impossible in this race.
QuickStep still have four brilliant riders, but I don’t think Lampaert will be as strong here. That leaves them with three outstanding riders, but this race contains so many crashes it is unlikely that all three will be at the front of the race towards the end of the race. If they manage to dodge bad luck, it still won’t be “easy” as the other races.
In this race, the last 60km is crucial. It’s possible for attacks to stick at any point and riders have be tactically aware. We’ll see lots of attacks from “minor” teams, as they look to place riders up the road. Once they get joined by the main riders, it’s possible to hang on and fight for victory, just like Matt Hayman did in 2016.
Tactics
2017 was a crazy edition of this race, with a break not forming for an awful long time. I think we’ll see another fast running of the race, with a big selection being made early on. Bora have a very strong squad for this race, they don’t like the hills in Flanders, but they perform much better on the flat. A rider like Bodnar can be hugely influential in this race.
BMC will also be confident about having multiple riders to help Van Avermaet deep into this race. They and Bora will be confident of matching the power of QuickStep. I think we’ll see these teams hit each cobble sector hard and try to hurt QuickStep. It is a simple tactic, but the right thing to do. The domestiques better make sure they have a big breakfast!
Expect to see BMC and Bora try to get riders in breaks, allowing their leaders to follow wheels. I think this is a race where we’ll see QuickStep put under pressure, much more so than in previous races. Can they stand up and deliver?
Contenders
Peter Sagan – very strong here in 2017, but suffered a number of mechanicals in key moments of the race. That seems to sum up his luck in this race, it isn’t one that Sagan has enjoyed over recent years. Like the other big stars, he’s been frustrated in the last few races, but he did manage to win Gent-Wevelgem. Given his bike handling skills, it’s a big surprise that he hasn’t won this race, but I’m sure he’s keen to set the record straight. His team are very strong and I think we’ll see Sagan take the race to QuickStep, he will ride a lot of this race at the head of the bunch. Get ready for a show!
Greg Van Avermaet – his win here in 2017 was a stunning triumph. He’s been left frustrated in the recent races, unable to “work out” QuickStep. His legs are good, I think talk of him being out of form are incorrect. As I have mentioned already, BMC have a team which can dominate this race and put Van Avermaet into a strong position. GVA is riding with the calmness winning a monument brings, he can more patient than some. Despite not winning, I think he has looked good in the previous races and this is a title he’d dearly love to defend. It’s hard to see him not being involved in the closing stages of this race.
Philippe Gilbert – he’s been talking up his quest for five, since the start of the season. He has fulfilled a teammate role in recent races, helping to mark out attacks and help Terpstra to take some big wins. Despite his glittering career, he’s only raced here once, finishing 52nd in 2007. This is a race that usually favours riders who have the experience of how to ride it, but there are some exceptions. It will be fascinating to see how Gilbert tackles this race, especially after being a loyal teammate in the last few races. Will he go long? Will QuickStep ask his teammates to cover any moves from behind?
Niki Terpstra – the man in form. After taking huge wins in E3 and Flanders, he is a rider that everyone will fear. He hasn’t enjoyed much luck in his last two visits to this race, he has abandoned on both occasions. Terpstra won this race in 2014, when he benefitted from being the 2nd rider for QuickStep. Given his love of a long range attack, it seems that he will again be used in this role. If he makes a move, the favourites cannot allow him the same freedom he’s had in previous races.
Zdenek Stybar – the nearly man. He has been here on five occasions, finishing 2nd, twice, and also picking up 5th and 6th place finishes. Just like Gilbert, he’s worked as a good teammate in recent races, playing a big part in the wins of Terpstra. This is a race that most believe he will eventually win, but will it be this year? Will he have to work for Gilbert? Last year he suffered because he arrived in the same group as Van Avermaet. Despite all of his skill, Stybar doesn’t have a blistering sprint. If he is to win, I think he needs to arrive solo.
Jasper Stuyven – was one of the animators of the race in 2017. The Belgian is a huge talent, but he hasn’t quite managed to take a big win this year. He has been very consistent, taking top 10 results in MSR, E3, GW, DDV and Flanders. Okay, he hasn’t managed to break into the top 5, but this is a hugely impressive series of results. Given this record, it won’t be long until he takes a big result in 2018. Trek also line up with John Degenkolb, but I think Stuyven should be their captain.
Oliver Naesen – has endured a lot of bad luck this season. He was 4th in E3 and 6th in GW, which was a great sign of his form. A crash forced him to abandon DDV, but he still raced in Flanders, where he was in another crash. This time he chased back on and managed to finish 11th. If Naesen can avoid bad luck, he can have a big say in the outcome of this race. My only worry is that once a rider gets some bad luck, it seems to follow them for a number of races.
Dylan Van Baarle – arrives as part of strong looking Team Sky. He was on the attack in Flanders, something he always seems able to do. He’s not hit the heights he would have hoped, so far this season, but I was encouraged by his performance last Sunday. Despite his quality, he always seems to get some freedom, which should allow him to get up the road. Sky will then have the numbers to try and cover any attacks.
Sep Vanmarcke – please see all my previous comments about Vanmarcke!
Mike Teunissen – the Sunweb man replaces Edward Theuns in my list:( Back in 2014, he won the under 23 version of this race and his impressed me with his recent performances. He was 2nd in DDV, before finishing 18th in Flanders. Sunweb had planned to use him in a support role, but the recent illness of Theuns has forced them into a change of mind. Eddie will still have the chance to chase personal glory, but he only started feeling better on Thursday. That is a huge disappointment for rider and team, but Teunissen could well bring them a good result.
Prediction Time
After recent frustration, they big guns will go down swinging. Expect to see Sagan and co taking the race to QuickStep and not simply waiting for them to use their numbers in the closing stages. Similar to last year, I think we’ll see a small group of riders arriving in the velodrome and Greg Van Avermaet will successfully defend his title.
David Hunter
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