Aussie Road Nats – ITT Preview
By David Hunter
After the fun of the criterium, it’s time to get serious. The organisers used a new route in 2015 and have decided to stick with it.
As you can see it’s not very technical. The riders head out along a nice straight road, do a tight 180 and then head back along the same road. Yeah, not very technical! What it lacks in technicality it makes up for in difficulty.
The feedback from 2015 was that the final half is very hard. It’s not quite the final half, but the last 14km is not for the faint hearted. Hardly a flat bit of road and nowhere to hide. Rohan Dennis lost 40 seconds to Richie Porte in the second half of the race. That is quite incredible over just 20km and gives you an indication of just now hard the return leg is.
Porte was actually in 3rd place at the turn, he measured his effort perfectly. To do well on this course it’s vital you leave plenty in the tank for the challenging hills. Dennis felt he didn’t go out too fast but the facts don’t lie.
Out of the two of them I’d be tempted to say that Dennis is the better against the clock. He certainly is a specialist, winning TTs in the Tour de France and USA Pro Challenge in 2015. He didn’t have the best of times in the World Championship, finishing in 6th, but he did have a mechanical which cost him the bronze medal.
In comparison, Porte is a GC rider who can TT well. He won the TT in Paris-Nice, but that is a mountain TT. He was down in 19th in the Tour of Algarve, but he did take the wrong road!
They now are on the same team as well. Not only are they fighting for the TT title of Australia but there will be a little internal battle going on and both men are winners. Both are going to the Tour Down Under, with Dennis the defending champion. The dynamic between these two might be interesting!
Jack Bobridge finished with bronze in 2015. He was preparing for his hour record attempt and was in prime condition. No hour record attempt this season and Bobridge will have his sights firmly set on Rio, so I doubt he’ll be anywhere near top form yet.
It might surprise some that I haven’t mentioned Orica GreenEdge yet. Despite being the dominant Australian team, they have started to lose some of their TT stature. Yes, they still have Hepburn, Durbridge and Howson but it’s been a while since any of these boys turned in a major performance. The hilly nature of the course does not suit their style either and that must have played a part in the decision by Hepburn and Durbridge to skip the TT. A real shame for the event.
Weather can be a factor, with rainy conditions in 2015. Luckily it was the same for all riders and with few turns it wasn’t a big disadvantage. The wind is the one they are all worried about. With part of the route going through a wind farm, it’s clear that this area gets plenty of gusts. Last year was okay, hopefully it will be the same in 2016. The current forecast is for a fairly strong wind from the South East, meaning headwind going out and tailwind back. Probably the best result for the riders, given the difficulty of the second half.
The distance of 40.9km makes this a proper TT and one for the strongmen of the field. Porte won with an average of 47.3km/h in 2015, which gives an indication of just how hard a course this is.
It’s very hard to see anything else than Porte v Dennis Part II.
I have read that both men are claiming to be a little under their 2015 form, but, both need a good start to the season. Sometimes cyclists like to tell little white lies!
Prediction Time
He made a pacing mistake in 2015, I think he’ll have learned a lot from that experience. It’s Rohan Dennis for me.
David Hunter
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