Aussie Road Nats – Road Race Preview

By David Hunter

It’s time for the 2016 cycling season to properly start.

I’ve heard a few riders complaining that they would like a change, but I love the route. A very demanding 10.2km lap that features the climb of Mount Buninyong Road. The climb actually starts as soon as the pack turns left onto Midland Highway. They go through the feed zone, where riders will attack, before turning left onto Mount Buninyong Road. The climb is split in two and in both sections riders can see far in front. That makes it difficult for the break to truly escape.

Once on the highway the road rises at around 5% for 400m. The next 700m is at 7%. As you turn left onto Mount Buninyong Road it flattens out for  a moment before kicking up to 5% as you turn right. This point marks the official start of the climb, as they are not allowed to have the feed zone on an official climb. From here, it goes up in steps. For a couple of hundred metres it’s 5%, then flattens, before 7% for 300m. The riders then reach the KOM point, but don’t descend straight away.

A descent of 6km does allow dropped riders to rejoin the front group, exactly what Haussler did in 2015, before going on to win. The climb dominates the circuit and gradually wears down the bunch before an almightily fight during the last 3 laps.

The women cover 10 laps of the circuit, the under 23 men do 13 and the elite man cover it 18 times. Don’t expect any real action until the second half of all the races as the group try to ease their way into the action.

Each race has it’s own set of dynamics and tactics. The Aussie championships are fairly unique, with 1 hugely dominant team. Orica are the only WT team represented and as such, have dominated the event for years. However, the smaller teams have increased in size and strength over the years and can now offer a challenge. Others can often benefit from this, just ask Haussler!

The men’s race was totally different in 2015, due to the absence of Simon Gerrans. He’s back for 2016 and word on the street is he’s flying. Orica had to change tactics last year, with him missing, although it nearly paid off. Caleb Ewan managed to make the final selection but opened his sprint too early. In previous years, Orica put a rider or two in the morning break. They then look at the composition of the break to decide if their riders are stronger than the rest. If they are worried, they bring the break back and Gerrans attacks on the final climb…simple! This circuit is as close to perfection as Simon Gerrans could get.

Gerro possesses a sprint faster than all the other climbers and his uphill acceleration is frightening. Orica know that he will also win from a small group and so do the others. Riders like Richie Porte might be better at climbing, but this isn’t the Alps. The climb is not hard enough to drop a rider like Gerrans. That’s why Orica usually have this race sewn up. The team started in 2012 and Gerrans won the RR. 2013 was the turn of Luke Durbridge, going for a big solo ride, before Gerrans won again in 2014. The loss in 2015 hurt and they are back to reclaim their title.

Despite being strong, Orica are weaker than usual. Their two best climbing domestiques have left and are racing against them. Simon Clarke and Cameron Meyer were an excellent insurance policy. Both are solid climbers and pack a fast sprint, ideal for a race like this. Without them they have less riders who will stay the distance with Gerrans. Their 9 man team is Gerrans, Ewan, Durbridge, Edmondson, Hayman, Docker, Haig, Hepburn and Howson. A lot of pressure will be on the shoulders of Luke Durbridge and Jack Haig. With Turbo Durbo not riding the TT, Orica have realised how important he will be for Gerrans. He is a solid climber and one who is getting better. Expect to see him waiting in the peloton until the closing laps.

Some might expect Caleb Ewan to win the race. I think he will enjoy protected rider status but I don’t expect him to challenge. Orica can use him in two ways: save him in the bunch for a sprint or send him in a late break to disrupt as no one wants to take him to the line. Either way, I don’t see it working out for Caleb. This is all about Gerrans!

Looking to stop the Orica boys are BMC, Drapac, Avanti and Dimension Data.

BMC – Porte & Dennis.

Drapac – Earle, Spokes, Norris, Canty, T Meyer, Brown, Jones, Phelan, Roe, Bernie Sulzberger, W Clarke

Avanti – Van der Ploeg, Dyball, Von Hoff, Lovelock-Fay, Crome, Giacoppo, Hucker, Lake, Lane, O’Brien, Shaw.

Dimension Data – Haas, C Meyer & Renshaw.

Others – Hansen, McCarthy, Bobridge, S Clarke, Howard.

For the first time ever Orica are outnumbered by the others. Yes, they have more quality, but it does complicate the race. As does the number of talented solo riders.

BMC clearly have two huge riders. Both Dennis and Porte are very strong on climbs and can TT away on the descent. As they only have two riders, they must pray that the early break is brought back. They cannot afford to do any chasing.

The same goes for Dimension Data, who arrive with Meyer, Haas and Renshaw. Another talented pair, both with a fast finish, unlike the BMC duo. They might not possess the same climbing legs as Porte and Dennis, but they have quality. Having Renshaw is important, as he could be used to chase down a break.

The solo riders have the decide which gamble they will take. Go with the early break and hope it stays away, or stick with the peloton and hope it gets chased down. It’s not an easy decision to make.

Some of the “big” riders are not here to win, they simply want to get some quality kilometres in the legs, in race conditions. They have one eye on the  Tour Down Under, Sun Tour and Cadel Evans race.

Drapac and Avanti have a large say in the outcome of the race. They are the only teams with the numbers to chase breaks. Like Orica, they will put numbers in the early move and decide if they think they can win from that position. If not, they will chase it down. Drapac are a quality outfit with plenty of climbing talent. Riders like Nathan Earle, Sam Spokes, Brendan Canty, Tim Roe and Adam Phelan cannot be underestimated. Most of them are trying to prove themselves after their career stalled. Earle and Spokes are two riders I think are exceptionally talented. Earle was with Sky, but stepped back to Drapac for 2016. Fed up of being a domestique, he wants his own chance and here it is!

Avanti made the podium in 2015 with Neil Van der Ploeg. He is not their only hope, with Mark O’Brien capable of a surprise. Steele Von Hoff will hope for a few favours from his old team. His Bay Crits were a bit disappointing, but his focus has always been this race. He is determined to start the season off well, but I think he needs a bunch sprint to win. If he gets the sprint, he’ll still need to beat Caleb Ewan, so it won’t be easy.

The wind is hugely important. Get a headwind on the climb and it’s impossible to breakaway. The wind direction is due to change throughout the day, but looks like being a crosswind on the climb. That should help the climbers a bit but they would prefer a tailwind. If they get favourable wind conditions, the sprinters have no chance of surviving the climb.

Prediction Time

All about Gerrans. Orica will ride a race designed to ensure a victory for their captain. The others will try but fail. Want Gerro wants, Gerro gets! As the race will be tough, look towards riders like Dennis, McCarthy and Earle to fight out the podium.

Women’s Race

Like the men, this is dominated by Orica-AIS, although they failed in 2015, just like the men. They have the biggest team here: Elvin, Garfoot, McConville, Neylan, Roy, Spratt and Williams. They are quality too. Spratt won in 2012, with Elvin doubling up in 2013 and 2014. Rachel Neylan was 2nd in 2015 but signed for the team shortly after the race. They want their title back and have a flying superstar.

Gracie Elvin really seems to have found her mojo, after a disappointing 2015. She won the Bay Crits, looking strong throughout. She has pushed herself in training and looks like her old self. That should scare the other riders. Her teammates also look in top form, with Neylan, Roy, Spratt and Williams looking better than most other riders.

What is great about this race is the quality of the solo riders, or riders with only one or two teammates.

The Wiggle superstars are here: Peta Mullens and Chloe Hosking. Mullens is the current champion and MTB champion too. She is one talented rider. She is one of those riders that seem able to do anything. She can climb, sprint, ride a road bike and mountain bike. She has the lot! Another asset is her tactical brain. She sensed the right move in 2015 and followed Rachel Neylan as she attacked on the penultimate lap. With two strong riders away, the others didn’t stand a chance.

Chloe Hosking is another amazing bike rider. Just how they play their tactics will be interesting, as they cannot afford to do too much work early on. Hosking has a very fast sprint, so it makes sense for Mullens to be the attacking rider and Hosking to sit in the pocket.

The other riders who Orica will be worried about are Lauren Kitchen, Shara Gillow, Tiffany Cromwell and Carlee Taylor.

Cromwell finished 3rd in the ITT a sign that her form is good. When she’s good, she’s brilliant! Shara Gillow might have lost her TT title, but she’ll fancy walking home with the RR jersey. Tall and thin, the Rabobank-Liv rider is one of the best. An elegant climber, it’s hard to distance her on Mount Buninyong Road.

Lauren Kitchen is the current Oceania RR holder, beating Williams, Garfoot and Neylan in 2015. Another rider that has looked good in the recent races, but arriving with no teammates is going to make life difficult for her.

And then we have Carlee Taylor. Having just moved from Lotto to Team Liv-Plantur, she will be looking forward to showing off her new kit. I was lucky enough to talk to Carlee about the course and her tactics!

Just how hard is Mount Buninyong Road? What would you give it out of 10?

The road and climb itself isn’t the hardest climb. But the fact we do it 10x is what really stings the legs. I’ll give it a 7.

How hard is it to ride the race as a solo rider?

Hard. On that course as a solo rider you have to really gamble when it comes to who to follow. You can’t go with everything and numbers in the last few laps is really advantageous.

How much of a difference does a headwind/tailwind make on the climb and the outcome of the race?

You saw last year the wind was very different and it changed the race a lot. Sprinters stayed there a lot longer because the head wind up the climb nullified the attacks on the highway part of the climb. Yea it split up a bit on the last, but there was a bigger than normal bunch coming into the sprint for 4th.

What tactics can you use against Orica? They have so many riders!

They do. Although on the climb when an attack goes on that last lap you can either go with it or you can’t. And there is only 7km to the finish line. The riders with not many or no teamies need to make Greenedge work. They are the team to beat and the ones with the pressure so helping them bring back moves etc isn’t our responsibility with such a strong team. They have so many strong riders though. It’s definitely a hard task.

How do you know which attack to follow?

You start sensing who is going well. Climbers you haven’t seen the whole race who are hiding. Anything that goes in those last 2 laps is pretty dangerous and really you can’t afford not to go with any of those moves. But it is easier said than done!

You looked really strong last year, did you kick yourself that you missed the move?

I have won 2 u23 titles here in the past and they had been from an earlier move. And last year that’s what I was really trying to create. I used a lot of energy doing this and it cost me later. I just couldn’t go with that move from Rachel and Peta, so I can’t kick myself really.

Is following Gracie the best move in 2016?

She definitely looks on good form. And if definitely one to watch. But riders like Tiff Cromwell, Rachel Neylan, and of course Peta Mullens you can’t over look either. I think it will be a hard race though, and whoever does win will have deserved it.

Always fascinating to hear from the riders about the course. What Carlee says is really true for both races. When the attacks go on the final laps, you either have it or you don’t. Orica-AIS could be left in a tricky position, but the form of Gracie Elvin is a huge positive. In the closing laps I would expect them to try attack after attack, hoping that one will snap the elastic. I really hope it comes down to a battle between Elvin, Mullens, Hosking, Kitchen, Taylor, Cromwell, Gillow and Neylan. That is the main difference between the two races, the women have far more potential winners. It should be an excellent race.

Prediction Time

I cannot ignore the numbers of Orica-AIS and the form of Gracie Elvin. After missing out in 2015, I think Elvin will take back their crown, but it ain’t going to be easy.

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