Brabantse Pijl – La Flèche Brabançonne Preview

By David Hunter

Leuven – Overijse 205.3km

Welcome to the Ardennes!

This race is a jewel of the cycling calendar, but underrated by most. As it sits between Roubaix and Amstel, a lot of the big riders skip it, so people think the race isn’t good. They are wrong! This is a great race, perfect preparation for the coming 11 days.

The peloton have to tackle 26 climbs, 15 of them come in the challenging lap circuit. The climbs are not long and not too steep, but they do come with very little gap between them. This makes it a perfect race for breakaway riders, as it is very difficult for any team to control.

In the circuit, the riders face the following climbs:-

Hagaard – 360m at 10%.

Hertstraat – 700m at 4.2%, on cobbles.

Holstheide – 950m at 5.3%.

Ijskelderlaan – 1120m at 4.3%.

Schavei – 700m at 5.2%.

It is a race where we have attacks all the time. During the lap circuit, there are many tight corners and fast downhill sections. This is a day made for attacking riders. Expect to see a small peloton on the final lap, with crazy attacks disrupting the work of the bunch. Teams always want to have a rider up the road.

The attacking nature of the route can be seen with the different editions of this race. In 2015, Hermans won solo after dropping Tanner with 4km remaining, they had been away for over 20km. In 2014, Gilbert won an uphill sprint from the peloton. 2013 was the year of Sagan, as he and Gilbert escaped from a small group of favourites and Voeckler won solo in 2012. We get something different every year, that’s another reason why it’s such a great race.

Weather

A nice sunny day, with little wind. The weather will not have an impact on the winner.

Contenders

With no Philippe Gilbert, Orica arrive with the overwhelming favourite, Michael Matthews. They tried to control the race in 2015, but failed miserably. Matthews was left all alone inside the final 20km, covering some attacks by himself. I know his goal is Amstel Gold, but Orica should really look to take this race too. Their team is looking okay with Impey, Haig, Hayman, Howson and Keukeleire. As I have said, this is a very tough race to control, getting a rider in the break is a better move than controlling the craziness!

BMC are the defending champions, with Ben Hermans back to defend his title. Gilbert is unavailable after getting his finger broken by a drunk motorist, so their squad is weaker than usual. Hermans is supported by Bohli, De Marchi, Dillier, Gerts, Senni, Teuns and Vliegen. It might be a young team but it’s still hugely talented. They bossed the Volta Limburg and will try to do something similar here. They have won this race for the last 2 years, it won’t be a surprise to see number 3.

BMC’s biggest rivals should be Etixx and Lotto, nothing new there. Lotto come with two options:Tim Wellens and Tony Gallopin. Both arrive from Pais Vasco, with Wellens showing better form. He was very strong during the Aia stage, but burnt his bridges by showing tactical naivety. His attacking style is better suited to a race like this. Gallopin is a good back-up option, but he was poor in the Basque Country. They will be supported by De Gendt, Vanendert, Van der Sande, Ligthart, De Bie and Armee. That is a strong looking team.

Etixx also have multiple options: Alaphilippe, Meersman, Serry and Vakoc. Of these riders, Petr Vakoc, has shown the best form in 2016. He really seems to be developing into a bull of a rider, winning Sud Ardeche and the Drome Classic, before finishing 5th in Strade Bianche. He was active here in 2015, he has a great chance this year.

Julian Alaphilippe had a neo-pro season that most can only dream of. He was 7th in Amstel, 2nd in Flèche, 2nd in LBL and won the Mount Baldy stage in the Tour of California. I voiced my concerns about the number of races he was doing and it looks like Etixx had overworked their young star. After a period of illness and fatigue, he has slowly started to build his fitness again. Saying that, he has started 4 races this season, but is yet to finish one. I really hope 2016 is not a year to forget for the young French star.

Cannondale have Tom-Jelte Slagter in good form. He was strong in Pais Vasco, although riding for his teammates. He is a rider that thrives in the Ardennes and this represents a good opportunity for him. In, Ramunas Navardauskas, he has a strong rider to support him. Slagter is one of the fastest finishes in the field, but would need to drop Matthews if he wants to win.

Tom Dumoulin is in the middle of a training block, so it’s hard to tell how he’ll perform. He certainly has the skill set required to do well here, but his team is looking weak.

Quite a few riders have good memories of this race: Haas, Devenyns, Tanner, Voss, Rebellinand Hardy all seem to like this route. I would expect to see them on the TV cameras again this year, hopefully we have some new faces too.

New Faces

Two riders have got a lot of big teams interested in them: Lilian Calmejane and Floris De Tier. Calmejane is French, 23 years old, and rides for Direct Energie. He has a real uphill kick, which helped him to win two stages in 2.2 races, back in 2015. He has started his neo-pro season well, winning the white jersey in La Med and finishing 2nd in the same category in Haut Var and La Provence. He is a kid with a big future.

Already a year ahead of him is Floris De Tier of Topsport Vlaanderen. This team know how to develop talent, constantly preparing riders for the move to the World Tour. This season they said goodbye to Theuns, Naesen, Campenaerts and Wallays. That is a considerable hole left in the team, but they always have riders ready to fill the space and take the opportunity provided. 2015 was his neo-pro year and he delivered some solid results:- 9th in Murcia, 21st here, 12th in GP Wallonie and 13th in Giro dell’Emilia. This year started brilliantly with 9th in the tough opening stage of Oman and 9th on the Green Mountain. This looks like the next “big” rider from Topsport.

Gaetan Bille is not a new name for some, but a few people will not know about him. The 28 year old is in his first season with Wanty, after joining them from Verandas Willems. He did have a couple of years with Lotto before this but it didn’t work out. In 2015, he took some huge results, 3rd in the Belgium Tour, probably being the best. He has already shown good form this season, taking 3rd place in the Valls stage in Catalunya. As we move into the Ardennes, this is his type of racing. Watch out for him. Hopefully he doesn’t have to ride for Gasparotto.

Matteo Busato is developing a fine reputation for himself. You might remember him from finishing 2nd in a Giro stage, back in 2015. It was the day the Italian break stayed away, thanks to some nice moto work! He’s followed that up in 2016 with some strong riding in support of others. Looking at the Southeast team, he should be given some freedom here.

Prediction Time

It’s up to Orica to control the race, this is a tough ask. BMC have multiple options, I expect them to attack all day long and I’m not sure Orica will really be able to cope. There is no doubt that Matthews is the best rider in the peloton, but that always doesn’t transfer into wins. He might get lucky and another team could pull it together, but that seems unlikely. If Matthews is going to win this, it has to be from an elite bunch.

After an injury hit start to 2016, Dylan Teuns, is starting to get things moving. Make no mistake, this kid is the real deal. Tiesj Benoot has managed to take the spotlight away from Teuns, thanks to an amazing 2015, but Teuns is a phenomenal rider. With no Gilbert, Teuns should start to see some more opportunities at BMC. I think he will be one of the protected BMC riders and I’m struggling to see riders who can cope with his acceleration. I’ll be bold and predict that Dylan Teuns will continue BMC’s hot streak in the race.

David Hunter

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