Clasica de Almeria 2015 Preview

By David Hunter

Almeria – Almeria 183.3km

Following on from Saturday’s race in Murcia, we have the usual race in Almeria. The defending champion, Sam Bennett, isn’t here as he’s about to compete in the Tour of Oman.

Despite the challenging looking profile, this is a race for the sprinters. The climbs aren’t that difficult: 10km at 1.5%, 3.2km at 6% and 2.6km at 5%. The final climb crests with around 70km to go. This gives any sprinter a great chance to rejoin the peloton and it also puts teams off trying to go too fast on the climbs.

Previous winners include Renshaw, Matthews, Pelucchi, Bos and Henderson. That gives you a good idea of the type of rider who normally wins here, and there’s plenty of sprinters here.

The biggest name is Mark Cavendish. Fresh from his brilliant win in Dubai, Cav has already won 3 stages this season. He arrives with a strong team: Renshaw, Alaphilippe, Brambilla, De la Cruz, Verona and Stybar. The climbs shouldn’t be a problem for Cavendish and he’ll be looking to better his 2nd place in 2010. With Renshaw here, it means that Etixx will dominate the end of the race. I can’t see any other team pushing Renshaw away from the head of the race, inside the final kilometre. To beat Cavendish, someone will have to come from behind him. This is not very easy!

Movistar have JJ Lobato. He’s also had a good start to the season, but I can’t see him beating Cavendish. Expect Movistar to set a fierce pace on the climbs. It’s simple, if they want to win, they have to remove Cavendish. Lobato was 2nd behind Bennett, in 2014, it looks like he might occupy that spot this year.

Cofidis arrive with Kenneth Vanbilsen. Their new Belgian signing was 2nd in GP la Marseillaise, but disappointed in Etoile de Besseges. He has a chance of a top 5 finish but needs to be on top form.

Here goes the long list of sprinters: Lasca, Bole, Matysiak, Porsev, Selig, Mondory, Farrar, Felline, Enger, Theuns, Appollonio, Gatto, Ratto and Sarreau.

Of all these riders the man with the best form is Alexander Porsev. He was finished 4th on two occasions in Dubai and is looking strong right now.

Edward Theuns is a talented young rider. The 23 year old Belgian rides for Topsport Vlaanderen and recently wore the yellow jersey in Etoile de Besseges. He had a second place and two third places. In fact, he hasn’t finished outside the top 10 in races this season, discounting the ITT in Besseges.

Daniele Ratto has started well for UnitedHealthcare with a couple of top 10 results in Dubai. The Italian is a fast sprinter and will look to finish high here. A spot on the podium is a possibility.

Prediction Time

It looks like the battle will be between Cavendish and Lobato, with everyone else fighting for 3rd. Cavendish is flying just now and I can’t see Lobato beating him here. Cavendish and Renshaw are a frightening prospect and most sprinters will be defeated, even before the race starts. On current form, it should be Porsev finishing 3rd but watch out for Theuns.

David Hunter

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