Criterium du Dauphiné 2020 – Stage 4 Preview

By David Hunter

Ugine – Megève 150km

Take a look at that start!

This is the profile from the road book, but it is wrong. The organisers removed the opening climb, so the profile looks like this.

It’s still a hugely demanding start, but I’m a little disappointed!

Col de Plan Bois is one of the hardest climbs in this year’s Dauphiné. It might not be long, but it is steep, and the road is narrow. 6.4km at 9.5% is perfect for those wanting to shake things up, I really hope it teases out some GC action.

The Croix Fry is slightly easier, but still demanding, especially at the start. These two climbs in quick succession is a dream start for those wanting to try something special.

The next proper climb on the menu is the Bisanne, which is 12.2km at 8.2%. This HC climb has lots of hairpins, but cresting with over 30km remaining it might put some off a big attack.

The climb up to the finishing line is just a big grind. With lots of tired legs, this will be harder than it seems.

Weather

Another hot one for the bunch.

Tactics

Do any of the teams have the balls to attack in the opening 40km? Jumbo-Visma have look untouchable in this race, but teams will still want to test them. It should mean that the break has a hard time getting away at the start of the stage, in fact, the front group could well be the GC group after the two cat 1 climbs.

It should be possible to put Tony Martin, Gesink and Van Aert into difficultly, but it does mean that Jumbo will start have four riders left. Looking at the strength of the other teams, they should have the most representation, I hope this doesn’t put teams off. This could be an absolute cracker of a stage where we get some proper fireworks. I’m thinking back to when Andrew Talansky surprising won this race back in 2014. As this is “only” the Dauphiné, some riders will be happy to try a risky move. Fingers crossed we get one of those stages.

Contenders

Primož Roglič – he looks ridiculously strong, but he still only has a narrow advantage. He has shown that his sprint is significantly faster than everyone else, which gives him a huge advantage in the finale of most stages. His lead is still relatively small considering his dominance, and Jumbo-Visma cannot afford to get complacent. Yes, they have a strong team, but I wouldn’t say Dumoulin and Kruijswijk are looking 100%. It might be possible for other squads to put them under pressure, but Sepp Kuss will not be dropped, he is riding very well just now. If Roglič is taken to the line, he will win.

Thibaut Pinot – just 14 seconds separates him and Roglič, but it feels a lot more than that! Being the closest to the Slovenian on GC means that Pinot will find it impossible to escape him and winning this stage will be very difficult.

Emanuel Buchmann – doesn’t mind going from distance, just think back to the Basque Country last year. Sitting just 20 seconds behind Roglič, the German is still well in the fight for the yellow jersey. Being so close on GC means that he’ll not be afforded any freedom, but he has the quality required to win this stage.

Mikel Landa – he’s been sitting in the wheels that much I don’t think I’ve even seen him this week. He’ll love the steep stuff at the start of this stage, he handles those types of climbs better than most riders. He’s a rider that usually gets better the longer the race goes on, and he certainly has no fear of attacking early.

Guillaume Martin – most watchers of the sport won’t be surprised by his performance this week, but it is the first time he’s properly shone in a world tour race. After looking strong on Ventoux, he’s backed that up with some quality riding. Unfortunately, I think he’ll be happy to follow wheels and secure a good GC position, instead of risking it all with a Hail Mary.

Tadej Pogačar – strikes me as the type of rider who wouldn’t mind attacking early in the stage and forcing the others onto the back foot. He’s not right at the top of his game, but he was better today compared with yesterday.

Egan Bernal – come on son, go for a long one!

Julian Alaphilippe – form isn’t looking very good just now, but you can never write him off.

Prediction Time

With the GC teams likely to race hard from the start of the stage the break doesn’t have a great chance of success, but a late move does. If Jumbo-Visma lose riders, it is possible for someone to escape on the Bisanne and disappear up the road, hopefully someone tries. However, given the current strength of the race leader, I think that when the dust settles Primož Roglič will win another stage.

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