Criterium du Dauphiné 2020 – Stage 5 Preview

By David Hunter

Megève – Megève 153.5km

The final stage.

Another relatively short stage which is packed full of climbing. The cat 2 climb after just 14km will surely be where the break is formed.

2.5km at 8.5% is a tough way to start the day. There’s around 17km of flat before the riders hit the only HC climb of the day.

8.8km at 9.1% is the first bit, which is classified as HC. A short descent follows before kicking straight into the cat 1 climb, which is 7.5km at 8.5%. It might be very far from home, but two difficult climbs close together will hopefully see the GC men test each other out. The problem could be that we have another 70km before we hit the next hard climb, which is Côte de Domancy, the climb which started the stage off. Then just like today, the race ends with a long drag up to the finishing line.

This finish is harder than today. The steep section at the beginning is tough, there’s another in the middle, and it ramps up to the line. Many things can happen in the closing 20km.

Weather

Another hot day for the bunch, with a few thunderstorms hanging around. It looks like they might arrive after the race has finished, but that could change.

Tactics

Jumbo-Visma had a tough time today, losing Kruijswijk to a crash and Roglič also went down hard. The word from the team is that Roglič might not start tomorrow, which sounds like he definitely won’t start tomorrow. Even if he does, it sounds like he is sore and would find it very difficult to win the race.

Where does that leave us? Pinot will be the race leader, with a gap of 10 seconds to Guillaume Martin, with Landa and Martinez sitting a further 2 seconds back. Pinot has the fastest sprint of the GC riders, which is an added problem for those hoping to overhaul him.

What does this mean in terms of the stage? This looks like a classic breakaway stage, and if Roglič doesn’t take to the start line it pushes it further to the attackers. I don’t see a team with the strength to chase the morning move, I think the GC riders will wait until later in the day.

Contenders

Julian Alaphilippe – it was good to see him at the pointy end today. Okay, he wasn’t able to take the win but it’s a step in the right direction. This is another stage that looks tailor made for the Frenchman, hopefully he can find that little bit extra compared to today. It’s been a tough couple of weeks for him, something he’s not used to. The good thing is that Alaphilippe is a tough cookie, and I smell some form coming.

Adam Yates – had a recent period of ill health, but says he’s now feeling better. Yates is one of the most talented cyclists on the planet, he is an outstanding climber. If he is now feeling good, this stage will be a big target for him. Mitchelton-Scott had Jack Haig in the move today, it could be the turn of Yates tomorrow.

Pierre Latour – he continues with his rollercoaster form. So hard to predict, but a danger if he’s on a good day.

Pavel Sivakov – sits 3:15 down on GC, which will buy him some freedom. He has been working for Bernal, but now gets to ride for personal glory. After impressing in Occitanie, he knows this is a big chance to impress his bosses. Given the serious doubts surrounding the form of his teammates, this is a chance to move himself up the Ineos pecking order.

Sepp Kuss – if Roglič doesn’t start, we could see the young American given licence to chase the stage win. The team still have Dumoulin in the top 10, but given his outstanding work this week, they should really set Kuss free. I’m sure we’ve all been impressed by his work this week; he has looked in insane form.

Thibaut Pinot – as I’ve already mentioned, he has the fastest sprint of the GC boys. He also went down today, but it didn’t seem as bad as the others. This is a huge chance for him to win one of the biggest races on the calendar.

Mikel Landa – this is a big chance for him to win his first ever world tour stage race. The Basque climber isn’t yet at top form, but the longer the race goes on the better he gets. He tried his best today to upset Jumbo-Visma, but they could follow him with ease. Bahrain-McLaren have a team capable of making this a hard stage, but I hope Landa doesn’t wait for the closing kilometres.

Guillaume Martin – he normally doesn’t like these stages, short and intense is not his friend. This is the best I’ve ever seen him ride, but I think he’ll find this one too hard.

Dani Martinez – the Colombian is sitting in a strong position. Just 12 seconds behind Pinot, he has a big shot of taking home the yellow jersey, if Roglič is out. He is a punchy climber who also packs a fast sprint, which is ideal for this race.

Nairo Quintana – the HC climb is in the wrong place for the Nairo, but the Côte de Cordon does give him an opportunity in the final 20km. Quintana doesn’t have a good sprint, and the closing kilometres just aren’t steep enough for him. Fingers crossed he goes early and shakes up the race.

Prediction Time

The breakaway will win, but which one of the outstanding climbers will be successful? I think I’ll go with Pavel Sivakov to continue with his good run. In the GC fight, we could be in for a treat, with many riders close on time and looking equal in ability. I’ll roll the dice and go for Mikel Landa.

David Hunter

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