Dubai Tour 2015 – Stage 1 Preview
By David Hunter
The Dubai Tour kicks off with 145km route all around the city.
The route is as flat as a pancake!
The end of the stage has the riders doing 4 laps of a 8.2km circuit. It’s not really a circuit, they just go up and down a road. Very, very boring!
The last turn is at 3.5km to go, so there is plenty of time for the lead-out trains to get into position. Make no mistake, this is going to be a sprint. Time to talk lead-outs.
Not many teams arrive with a big lead-out train. The best is Etixx – Quick Step. Supporting Cavendish is Renshaw, Sabatini, Tony Martin, Vermote, Vakoc and Wisniowski. Not their number 1 line up, but Cav, Rens, Saba and Martin are very close to it! They have all the experience, so don’t expect to see them hitting the front until the final turn. Once Tony Martin takes to the front, there will be no stopping them. I would have the German, 4th last man. Let him do a big turn and reach a pace that their competitors can’t match, pass onto Sabatini, then Renshaw to deliver Cavendish to the line with 200 metres to go. Poetry in motion!
Realistically, there are only two teams capable of stopping an Etixx domination: Giant and Sky.
Giant are here with Degenkolb, not Kittel. As a result of this, they lack their normal power in the train. They really only have Curvers and Frohlinger. This means they have to jump onto the tail of another train and wait until the final kilometre before attacking. This is a very risky strategy.
Team Sky have been talking up their train. They have Fenn, Eisel, Thomas, Swift and Viviani. On paper, this is fast. Geraint Thomas, in particular, is capable of a great burst of speed. He is capable of taking on Tony Martin, to try and put Sky in control. Both Swift and Viviani need to be placed carefully as their positioning skills are the worst around. For once, Sky don’t have a big GC rider, so all the focus is on the sprints. Can they really dominate Etixx?
Going in Viviani’s favour is his two wins against Cav in the Tour of Turkey, last year. I get the feeling that Cavendish is wary of the Italian and won’t underestimate him.
The rest of the sprinters arrive with inferior trains and will survive as a result. They need a lot of luck to get on the right wheel and stay there. Expect a massive battle for Cav’s wheel.
The fastest of the rest are Andrea Guardini and Nicola Ruffoni. Both Italians have the chance to threaten the podium and it won’t be a surprise to me if they make it, but they’ll need to be on Cavendish. Many think that this could be Ruffoni’s year, time for him to fill the sprinting void left by the departure of Sacha Modolo. Bardiani will certainly hope so.
JJ Lobato is an interesting rider. He’s already demonstrated a fast sprint, in the TDU, but also displayed tactical weaknesses. Movistar arrive with a team fully focussed on GC, there is no one to help Lobato. They might ask Malori to bring JJ to the front, but after that, it’s up to him. A shame for Lobato but Movistar aren’t a sprint team! It’s going to be hard for him to compete for wins in this race.
Other sprinters who will try to mix it with the big boys are Davide Cimolai, Grzegorz Stepniak, Andrea Palini, Alexander Porsev, Lloyd Mondory, Daniele Ratto, Kiel Reijnen, Michael Kolar, Andrea Peron and Luca Mezgec might get a chance if Degenkolb lets him!
These guys don’t have a chance of winning, apart from Mezgec of course.
Prediction Time
Martin to Sabatini to Renshaw to Cavendish and win! It should be as easy as that.
David Hunter
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