Liège-Bastogne-Liège 2020 – Preview

By David Hunter

Monument time.

It’s very strange to see this race in October, we’ll have to see if it changes the approach of the riders.

Weather

There is a threat of rain during the afternoon, and it will feel cold. The big problem is the wind, which will be around 35km/h coming from the south. Most of the route is well protected by trees, but there are chances to split the bunch. The opening 100km will be block headwind, but a huge tailwind once they head back to Liège.

Main Climbs

The first of the main action should occur on Côte de la Redoute. It is a punishing climb, but crests 35km from home.

Côte de la Roche-aux-Faucons is where I expect the see the main selection made. From the top there is only 13km to go.

Tactics

The pressure to control the race will be on the shoulders of QuickStep. They have the new world champion, who would love to take an early win in the rainbow jersey. Their squad is strong enough to dictate the type of race we get; I suspect they’ll try to hold it altogether for the big moves to go on Roche-aux-Faucons. This type of race would suit Alaphilippe, but will any team try to disrupt this plan?

The simple answer to that is no. The teams that contain the big favourites will be happy with the above scenario, I don’t see any team with the depth required to change the script of this race.

Contenders

Julian Alaphilippe – how much did he celebrate after winning the world title? His win in Italy was brilliant, he is a worthy world champion. This is a race that suits him well, but he did blow on Roche-aux-Faucons last year. This year we’ll have to see what he has in his legs. He clearly used the Tour de France as a way of getting into shape, leaving the race with great legs. Alaphilippe will start the race as the favourite, but he won’t underestimate his rivals.

Marc Hirschi – another rider who’s enjoying an amazing run of form. Hirschi took a sensational win on Wednesday, he was clearly the strongest rider in the race. That followed up a bronze medal in Italy, there are no signs of him starting to get tired. Sunweb don’t have the team to dictate the whole race, they’ll be happy to let QuickStep do their thing and then start to help out later in the race. Hirschi is great on the steep climbs, and he also has a very fast sprint.

Michael Woods – blew his chance on Wednesday, his position for the final climb of the Mur was awful. Woods has the ability to win big races, but something always seems to go wrong. He was close here last year, he actually managed to follow Fuglsang on Roche-aux-Faucons, but his legs blew on the little climb that comes after it. EF look to have a strong team, but I’m not sure how much riders like Uran and Martinez have left in the legs. Winning a monument would be amazing, but I’m not sure Woods has what it takes.

Adam Yates – not been seen since the Tour. While others were racing at the Worlds and Flèche, Yates decided to have a little break and return for this race. I’m not sure this approach will be the best.

Michal Kwiatkowski – close at the worlds, close in Flèche, he’s been there or there abouts in the last week. This style of race is much to his liking, but I’m not sure how he beats Hirschi and Alaphilippe.

Tadej Pogačar – signs of fatigue are there to see, I really don’t think he’ll have enough left to win a race of this difficulty.

Primož Roglič – see above.

Max Schachmann – this is a race that should suit him well, but I’m not sure he has the form required to take the win. He looked okay at the worlds, but not great.

Tiesj Benoot – this is a race he can win. If Sunweb get two riders in the front group in the finale, they will be very hard to beat. He lacked that little extra bit during the Tour, but I was seriously impressed by him in Italy. It seems to me that Tiesj is now where he wants to be, he has this race and Flanders as his two big objectives over the next few weeks.

Mathieu van der Poel – the Dutch superstar was a very late addition to the start list, possibly because Amstel Gold was cancelled. His form is clearly good, and he could give some of the big teams a real headache. He’s the type of rider who’ll want to attack on Côte de la Redoute.

Prediction Time

Sunweb have two strong cards to play, which gives them an advantage over the other teams. The man of the moment, Marc Hirschi, will take another big win.

David Hunter

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