Paris-Roubaix 2016 Preview
By David Hunter
Clairoix – Roubaix 257.5km
The hell of the north returns!
Probably the most loved cycling race in the world. This year we have 27 sectors of those beautiful cobbles, here is the star rating.
27. Troisvilles (km 98,5 – 2200 m) +++
26. Viesly (km 105 – 1800 m) +++
25. Quievy (km 107,5 – 3700 m) ++++
24. Saint-Python (km 112,5 – 1500 m) ++
23. Vertain (km 120,5 – 2300 m) +++
22. Capelle-Ruesnes (km 127 – 1700 m) +++
21. Quérénaing – Maing (km 137,5 – 2500 m) +++
20. Monchaux-sur-Ecaillon (km 141 – 1600 m) +++
19. Haveluy (km 154 – 2500 m) ++++
18. Trouée d’Arenberg (km 162 – 2400 m) +++++
17. Wallers – Hélesmes, dit « Pont Gibus » (km 168 – 1600 m) +++
16. Hornaing (km 175 – 3700 m) ++++
15. Warlaing – Brillon (km 182,5 – 2400 m) +++
14. Tilloy – Sars-et-Rosières (km 186 – 2400 m) ++++
13. Beuvry-la-Forêt – Orchies (km 192,5 – 1400m) +++
12. Orchies (km 197,5 – 1700 m) +++
11. Auchy-lez-Orchies – Bersée (km 203,5- 2700 m) ++++
10. Mons-en-Pévèle (km 209 – 3000 m) +++++
9. Mérignies – Avelin (km 215 – 700 m) ++
8. Pont-Thibaut (km 218 – 1400 m) +++
7. Templeuve – Moulin de Vertain (km 224,5 – 500 m) ++
6. Cysoing – Bourghelles (km 231 – 1300 m) +++
Bourghelles – Wannehain (km 233,5 – 1100 m) +++
5. Camphin-en-Pévèle (km 238 – 1800 m) ++++
4. Le Carrefour de l’Arbre (km 240,5 – 2100 m) +++++
3. Gruson (km 243 – 1100 m) ++
2. Hem (km 249,5 – 1400 m) ++
1. Roubaix (km 256,5 – 300 m) +
The race really begins at the Forest of Arenberg, yes it does sound like something from Lord of the Rings!
Depending on wind, fatigue and crashes we can get important moves on most of the cobbled sectors. Everyone will look towards the 5 star sectors, Mons-en-Pévèle and Le Carrefour de l’Arbre, giving the real cobble experts a chance of detaching themselves from the others. In the past couple of editions, the race hasn’t split until the very end. The fans of the cobbles will hope for something different in 2016.
Weather
There has been much talk about the weather, all week long. The area has received a lot of rain over the recent few days, but Sunday should be a fine day. The earlier rain will ensure that the cobbles are dirty, with some puddles for the peloton to go through. The wind isn’t particularly strong, but it does come from the east. As the race heads north, we have a lot of crosswind sections. Remember that echelons can be formed with just a little wind, the direction is more important than the strength. We should see some teams trying to split the bunch on the exposed farm roads.
Analysis
With Sagan and Cancellara in great form, the other teams have some thinking to do! We all know what Cancellara can do here, having won on 3 occasions. Sagan is a different matter all together. He has failed to make the podium here, with a best finish of 6th. Despite his strength in Flanders, Sagan has yet to prove himself on the French cobbles!
There are quite a few riders that are equal in my mind, but the Etixx team really does stand out above the rest. The Belgian giants have been frustrated in 2016, things just haven’t quite worked out. This is their last chance, and I expect them to ride an attacking race. In most of the recent races, the peloton has split to pieces early in the race, that would be good news for Etixx. Most teams have 1 or 2 riders who could win the race, Etixx have 4: Boonen, Terpstra, Stybar and Tony Martin. Their strength in depth is hugely important in a race like this, expect them to pressurise the other teams. If they could take the title home, 2016 would go down as a successful year.
Who else?
Astana – Boom
Katusha – Kristoff
Sky – Stannard and Rowe
Orica – Keukeleire
Giant – De Backer
Lotto – Benoot and Roelandts
Jumbo – Vanmarcke
Dimension Data – Boasson Hagen
It might surprise you to see Bert De Backer on the list. Riding for John Degenkolb, he was huge in 2014 and 2015. He seems to have no problem dealing with the cobbles, now that he has some freedom, he has a chance of taking a rare result.
Benoot crashed hard in Flanders, these cobbles will not be nice for him. Lotto really only have Roelandts and he is as inconsistent as ever! 3rd in MSR, 7th in GW and 17th in Flanders. Looks like his results are on the slide. I have never been convinced that Roelandts has the mental strength to be a challenger in the biggest races.
Vanmarcke has looked in good condition in the recent races: 8th in E3, 2nd in GW and 3rd in Flanders. The Belgian is looking as strong as I have ever seen him, maybe he was right to skip Omloop and KBK. Bad luck often stops Vanmarcke from fulfilling his potential, this is a race where good luck can carry you a long way. I wonder if Vanmarcke can buy some!
Sky have the luxury of two options. Both Rowe and Stannard are in good form and capable of a big result. It will be interesting to see who gets the nod, experience would suggest that Stannard will be their leader. If we do have a small sprint, Rowe, will get the chance to sprint for victory. The squad is weaker than it was for Flanders, they will have to ride their luck to take the win.
Kristoff and Boom really do make my head hurt! Boom is a rider that always seems to be hanging around the top 10, without getting the big result. Yes, he won the cobble stage in the 2015 Tour, but that isn’t a monument. Kristoff will struggle as he is clearly the fastest sprinter of the favourites. His team is not strong enough to keep the race together, he’ll have to rely on others to do this.
It can’t help but thinking this is Cancellara v Sagan v Vanmarcke v Etixx!
Prediction Time
I think Sagan will find it too hard to complete the Flanders/Roubaix double. The outcome of the race really does depend on how Etixx get on. They must use their 4 options wisely, each time slimming the peloton down, making the other favourites chase. Then, they strike. For me, their best chance is through Terpstra or Stybar. They need to believe that they can win this race. I believe!
One problem is the lack of a sprint, against Cancellara and Vanmarcke. However, I think a rider will enter the velodrome by themself. I know I should say that Cancellara will win, that is the sensible thing to say. Problem is, I don’t feel like being sensible. I see Etixx dictating the race and exposing the lack of support in the other teams. In the chaos, Niki Terpstra, will emerge as the winner of the race.
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