Ronde van Vlaanderen – Tour of Flanders 2018 Preview
By David Hunter
Antwerp – Oudenaarde 263km
Welcome to cycling’s version of the world cup final.
This is the one we’ve all been waiting for. After a thrilling edition in 2017, it will be hard to match the drama of that race. Fingers crossed it’s another epic day.
The Climbs
The Muur was reintroduced in 2017, but we all thought it was too far out to have an impact. More fool us! Cresting with 90km left, it is a long way from home, but last year showed that it will still have an impact on the race. In most editions, the final 60km is where we start to see the big moves.
Oude Kwaremont – 2200m at 4%.
Paterberg – 360m at 12.9%.
Koppenberg – 600m at 11.6%.
Steenbeekdries – 700m at 5.3%.
Taaienberg – 530m at 6.6%.
Kruisberg – 2500m at 5%.
Oude Kwaremont – 2nd ascent.
Paterberg – 2nd ascent and final climb of the race, cresting with 13km remaining.
How Do You Beat QuickStep?
This is what all the teams will be thinking about. The Belgians have won Le Samyn, Dwars door West-Vlaanderen, Nokere Koerse, Handzame Classic, De Panne, E3 and Dwars door Vlaanderen. Not only that, but these races have all been won by different riders. This is a team where all their riders are at top form.
They arrive with four genuine contenders for the title:- Gilbert, Terpstra, Stybar and Lampaert. This is a huge worry to the other teams, as they’ll always be represented at the front of the race. Think back to Wednesday, when Benoot and Van Avermaet attacked from the bunch. Despite looking like the strongest in the race, QuickStep had three in the chasing group and managed to bring them back. Once that happened, Lampaert attacked and eventually won the race.
In E3, they bullied the other teams and Terpstra took a huge win. This also happened in Le Samyn and DDWV. They are the best at getting riders at the front and then blocking the chase. How will the other teams combat this?
Given the difficulty of the race, it is difficult to see many domestiques left in the final 30km. Sagan will hope to have Oss, with Van Avermaet hoping that Roelandts will also be there, but no other teams will have help. It will take a huge effort for these riders to stop QuickStep, but what does that mean in the context of the race?
Either the big names have to work together, or they need to attack relatively early. They cannot let QuickStep have four riders in the front group with 40km remaining. If Van Avermaet and Sagan ride an attacking race, this could be one of the races of the century. Please let it happen!
Weather
Cold, with some rain and wind. It won’t rain all day, instead we will have showers. When it rains, the riders will really start to feel the cold and we could see some getting into difficulty. The wind is coming from the north-west and could gust to 28km/h, giving teams the chance to split the race before the lap circuit in Oudenaarde. Crucial, it means we’ll have a headwind on the Kwaremont, making it hard to split the bunch.
Contenders
Philippe Gilbert – his 2017 win was one of the best rides of all time! 2018 is all about winning more monuments, he is keen on taking all five. Roubaix is a massive target, but make no mistake, he wants to retain this title. QuickStep have been at the very best in recent races, using their numerical advantage to win most races. They seem to have most of their squad in top form and will ride an aggressive race. Their tactics will be fascinating, especially the role of Gilbert. Will he go early? Will he wait and hope to be towed around Flanders? He knows that Van Avermaet and Sagan can beat him in a sprint, that makes like difficult for him. He needs to shake them off and to do that, he’ll need his team. QuickStep have to get these riders working and covering moves, that will make them use up some energy and then Gilbert can strike.
Peter Sagan – poor in E3, but won GW. Sometimes it can be hard to judge Sagan’s form, but he does like to turn it on in the monuments. After crashing and taking down his fellow attackers, he has a point to prove this year. Bora have strengthened their team and a lot will be expected of Daniel Oss. The Italian is a wonderful rider, but I think there seems to be too much pressure on his shoulders, he could do with some help. Sagan doesn’t always get his tactics right and he knows that QuickStep will try and test him, it will be interesting to see how he approaches the final 50km. He can win solo and he can win from a small sprint, Sagan has all the bases covered.
Greg Van Avermaet – the last couple of seasons have seen Van Avermaet win some huge races. In 2016 he won gold in Rio and last year he got his first monument, winning Paris-Roubaix. He’s yet to take a big win 2018, but he has been impressive. BMC are a team that continue to impress me. After losing Daniel Oss to Bora, they signed Jurgen Roelandts from Lotto. In recent races we’ve seen him deep into races and Stefan Küng continues to be an incredibly strong domestique. These two riders give Van Avermaet a big advantage over his rivals, although they didn’t get the tactics right in E3. He’ll have a big say in this race and like all Belgians, winning this one would be very special.
Oli Naesen – crashed on Wednesday and had to abandon the race. The team say his knee is hurt, but I remember him having a sore knee last year and he still looked very strong. I really hope his injury doesn’t stop him contending as I’ve been impressed by him this season. He has the ability to challenge for the title, as long as he is injury free.
Tiesj Benoot – usually I wouldn’t consider a 24 year old as a contender for this race, but when you have an engine like Benoot, age doesn’t matter. He was the strongest rider on Wednesday, but he was a little unlucky. It will be interesting to see how he rides the race as he is likely to be without teammates for the finale. Benoot is an incredible talent and a rider I think the big names fear, no way will he be given any freedom. I would be very surprised if he didn’t finish in the top 5. If he gets his tactics right, he could be the youngest winner since Tom Boonen.
Stybar/Terpstra/Lampaert – as I have mentioned, QuickStep have lots of talent. In this race, Lampaert will be the weakest of their four leaders., but that still leaves them with three huge engines. Terpstra was ridiculously strong in E3, with Stybar filling a helper role in recent races. Depending on team tactics, all of these riders have a chance of winning.
Michael Valgren – the winner of Omloop het Nieuwsblad has to be a contender for this one. 2017 was his first try at this race and he finished 11th, not too bad! Once thought of as a rider just for the Ardennes, he’s proving to be much more versatile. He is at his best when the race is very difficult, and it doesn’t come harder than Flanders! If he can avoid bad luck, he’ll be there in the finale of this race.
Michal Kwiatkowski – he’s only done this race twice and 27th was his best position. I can’t see him seriously challenging, despite his undoubted talent.
Wout Van Aert – some would say this would be a fairytale win. Can he do it at 23? I just can’t see.
Sep Vanmarcke – can he win? No. Enough said.
Prediction Time
I cannot see past QuickStep. This year I don’t think we’ll see Gilbert attacking from distance, I think that will be either Lampaert, Terpstra or Sénéchal. They will hope to isolate Sagan and Van Avermaet, getting them to waste energy by chasing the break. Once the dust settles and the groups come back together, I think we’ll see Zdenek Stybar attack. I have been hugely impressed by his recent races, particularly his attack on the Taaienberg on Wednesday. With Gilbert sitting on the wheels of the main favourites, Stybar will take a solo win. The others will have to do something special to beat QuickStep.
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