Ruta Del Sol 2015 – Stage 3 Preview

By David Hunter

Motril – Alto de Hazallanas 159.8km

Time for Froome v Contador!

The stage is relatively straight forward, until we get to the beast of the final climb.This climb featured in the 2013 Vuelta Espana, with Chris Horner taking the stage with a late, solo attack. Vincenzo Nibali finished 2nd, 48 seconds behind. Interestingly, Ivan Basso was 4th, he’s back today. Also back today is Nico Roche, he finished 7th that day and Mikel Nieve who was 11th.

The climb is a monster, at 16km but that includes a gentle opening and a descent. Really, it’s 7.4km at 9.7%. So early in the season, this is going to really hurt.

As we have so many riders far down on GC, we should get a sizeable morning break. There are no bonus seconds in this race, so no need for Tinkoff – Saxo to chase them down. We should really see two races: the breakaway and Froome v Contador.

To win this stage, even from a break, you have to be a brilliant climber. That narrows the options a bit. We have Wellens, Ven Den Broeck, Kelderman, Kruijswijk, Riblon, Peraud, Sicard, Duarte and Torres. All of these riders are 5 minutes or more down on GC. This will give them plenty of freedom, although Tinkoff won’t be delighted to see a huge breakaway, as they will struggle to keep the gap down. A break of around 8 riders is probably best for everyone.

Out of these riders I think it would be between VDB, Kelderman, Wellens and Torres. Jurgen Van Den Broeck just finished a block of training at Mount Teide and posted some impressive figures. He usually performs well in this race and has the climbing ability to cope with the steep gradients. Wellens lost another 5 minutes today and will be ready to attack.

Rodolfo Torres recently finished 2nd in San Luis and was climbing well. I’m not sure how badly he crashed, on stage 1a, so I can’t confidently pick him as the winner. If fit, he has a great chance.

Kelderman blasted the TT, so he’s flying. Another gifted climber, the climb is good for him and he’ll be looking to take the stage win.

If these riders are feeling strong, they might not go for the break. They could decide to stay with the peloton and attack when they reach the climb. The lack of bonus seconds means that Contador doesn’t have to chase them down. The crashes really have presented us with a number of options. It makes it a fascinating race to watch.

Froome v Contador is going to be good. After being dominant in 2013, Chris Froome got his bum kicked in 2014. Contador returned to the throne, in 2014,  and Froome has some catching up to do. They knew they were meeting here for a number of months, so Froome would have made sure he was on top form. To help, he arrives with close to his top team: Kennaugh, Kiryienka, Nieve, Roche, Siutsou and Zandio. This is a serious team, a Grand Tour team. On the other hand Contador arrives with a weak mountains team: Basso, Hernandez, Paulinho, Petrov, Tosatto and Valgren. Yes, Hernandez and Basso are strong but they lack the depth of Team Sky.

Can anyone stay with them?

I seriously doubt it, due to the length and difficulty of the climb. The best option would be Bauke Mollema. He arrived looking to do well on GC but the crash has left him over 1 minute down. This climb is hard enough that Mollema can still get himself back in contention for the podium.

Romain Bardet is the other option. Bardet had a stunning Tour de France, finishing 6th. I don’t think he’s in top form yet, so doubt he’ll challenge the big 2, but he’ll be eyeing up the podium.

Movistar will be riding for Benat Intxausti. The Spaniard always seems to disappoint, on the big stages. I think the climb is going to be too hard for him.

Jerome Coppel is an option for IAM Cycling but he’s another that will suffer on this climb. He can cope with mountains but this one is particularly hard. Fellow Frenchman, Romain Hardy, is another who could challenge. He finished 4th in the 2014 Tour of Turkey. The 26 year old Cofidis rider, is one who could go well, if on top form.

Prediction Time

Even though we have big gaps, the break will still find it difficult to make it. Team Sky and Tinkoff – Saxo won’t want to let Kelderman and VDB back into the GC picture. If they go in the break, the peloton will keep the gap down. Team Sky love nothing more than slogging their guts out and denying breaks any success. On the final climb, the Sky mountain train will be in full swing. Rider after rider will hit the front and give it their all. Kiryienka will do his usual and blow the peloton apart. I’m not sure what position Roche will fill. Kennaugh should be 3rd from last and when he’s finished they might just let Nieve attack. He’s close enough on GC that Contador will have to chase him. By that point, Contador is likely to not have any teammates left, in fact, I doubt there will be anyone apart from Froome and Contador. It should set up a great battle. I said it in my overall preview and I still think that Froome is ahead of Contador, at this time of year. Froome to take the win. Battling for the top 10 should be Mollema, Bardet, Intxausti, Pardilla, Reichenbach, Kudus, Rolland, Navarro and Brajkovic.