Tour de La Provence – Stage 1 Preview

By @EchelonsHub

Filippo Ganna won the opening prologue of the Tour de la Provence with sheer dominance as he went through the 7.1Km course gaining 12 seconds on Ethan Hayter who finished second, as much time as Hayter took on 15th-18th place on the stage. Tobias Ludvigsson finished third on the day with most GC contenders coming home relatively close to each other, except for Ivan Sosa naturally.

Positive: Ganna taking his second win in the space of a few days.

Negative: Sosa lost 33 seconds on Quintana and 47 on Alaphilippe, so it’s safe to say he will not be winning the overall classification in the end.

The Route

The opening road stage of the race, if today the riders found flat roads tomorrow will be no different, except for a little hill near the start that was inserted so that there would be a KOM classification leader at the end of the day.Almost the entire stage, but particularly the end, will be ridden on the Parc Naturel Regional de Camargue, the delta of the Rhône river. Hence it is no surprise that there will be no elevation to gain, however the pan-flat plains will present a different challenge in case there is wind.The finale will be very simple as the peloton will tackle a final circuit, they’ll go through the finish line three times so there will be early recon, and there are also no technical features along these roads. The final kilometers are completely straightforward and empty until the final kilometer, where the only thing that changes are some very soft turns but breaks will no be necessary, it’s full speed the whole way.

The Weather

Echelons incoming! Tomorrow there is no hiding, as the race goes into pure flatlands the riders will be hit with strong winds from the north almost from the moment they pass the only categorized climb of the day. From around 115 to 47Km to go there will almost always be either a cross or tailwind and little to no cover. In the final circuit, with 36 and 12Km to go the peloton will hit a change of direction into crosswinds, these 2 moments will be crucial, expect splits and team attacks.

Breakaway Chances: 5%

The chance is non-existing essentially. Speeds will be very high and it’s an almost pan-flat day so there will be that, but obviously it will be a day full of tension with a high-speed peloton throughout a lot of it.The FavouritesArnaud Démare – A man who either succeeds tremendously or goes under the radar, which version of Démare will we see here? Let’s find out, tomorrow will be his best opportunity.Elia Viviani – INEOS should thrive in the crosswinds, with Ganna, Hayter, Rowe and Puccio for support, likely both Viviani and Carapaz will be protected tomorrow and the Italian can really benefit from a hard race. Lorrenzo Manzin – TotalEnergies’ option for the sprint, the Frenchman packs some mean speed but will likely be praying the winds don’t cause damage as the team is not likely to prioritize him over Pierre Latour’s GC ambitions.Rudy Barbier – Israel are actually having quite a strong team, I expect them to try and shake the race up as they have strength in numbers, in the form of rouleurs. Vanmarcke, Bevin, Wurtz and Van Asbroeck are all powerful riders who can make the race violent in the flat roads, late attacks are also possible under the right circumstances, Barbier is likely to be protected throughout these.Bryan Coquard – If the peloton shakes the lightweight Frenchman will likely fly away with the favourites go up the road. However in the eventuality that doesn’t happen, he’s riding with some great form and may succeed.Some more outsiders can pop up in the fight for the win for sure, men like Andrea Vendrame, Pierre Barbier or Norman Vahtra can do pretty well on their day. Nevertheless I think there is a bigger threat posed by crosswind action and later a solo attack from a heavily reduced peloton, powerhouses like Filippo Ganna, Sep Vanmarcke or Bruno Armirail are good names to take into consideration in such a scenario. 

Inside The Bus

This morning I talk to…#24 Ethan Hayter – Ethan we go on the attack today! You will have your opportunity to go for the stage tomorrow, we have to ride as a team and in benefit of everyone, so you have a supporting role tomorrow, not a leading one in any way. Elia has a big opportunity, Richard wants to go for the GC, and Pippo is in the leader’s jersey and can pull off a big surprise, we have Luke and Salvatore who are experts and will guide you through, we will attack as soon as they say it’s good and when that happens you don’t be afraid to put your nose in the wind and give it your all to form and consolidate gaps, we need them as Richard isn’t looking at top form. Stage 2 we will help you, here we need your help.#32 Alexander Kamp  – Alex, other teams will be looking to go on the attack so we have to play it defensively, we don’t have a great team here to ride on the wind as we usually do. We have Kenny and Mattias who can do well in the GC, you look over Mattias as he is more likely to get through them and hang on with the peloton, the rest of the guys will look over Kenny as he will likely dangle off the peloton if the pace goes up and will need support.#131 Tom Mainguenaud – We have Norman who can do well today if he makes it to the sprint so we have to look out for him. Some of the guys, you included, may try to get in the break for some exposure. Whoever doesn’t make it stays in the pack and makes sure he is protected, it’s his only chance and our only chance aswell of getting a good stage result.

Prediction Time

⭐⭐⭐ Viviani, Démare⭐⭐ R.Barbier⭐ Manzin, Coquard, P.Barbier, R.Barbier, Ganna, Hayter, Vendrame, Vanmarcke

I expect a race destroyed by attacks in the winds and INEOS to be all over the place. If Ganna doesn’t attack for the win himself, which I think is very possible, Viviani takes the sprint win.

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Rúben Silva

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