Tour de La Provence – Stage 2 Preview

By @EchelonsHub

It was a day where the peloton was devastated by the crosswinds early on, several teams made the move and worked together to eliminate all those left behind in the splits. INEOS controlled vigorously every move that came off the front of the peloton in the final kilometers so as to take it to a sprint finish, where with no other sprinter in the group, Elia Viviani took an easy win in front of Sep Vanmarcke and Julian Alaphilippe.

Positive: Viviani taking the win, Ineos raced for the stage, can’t say positive things about Carapaz having sacrificed himself and loosing time so as to save Luke Rowe. Alaphilippe and Quintana the big winners of the day for GC.

Negative: Sosa,Pedrero, Storer and Elissonde are between those who lost all hopes of fighting for the GC, loosing time in the splits as expected.

The Route

An interesting stage, the race has done a very traditional approach with a time-trial, sprint, hilly and mountainous stage, and here we have round 3, puncheurs day.

Will it be though? If any day will it’s here, but the route isn’t overly complicated and it is likely that we’ll see the sprinters, some of them at least, fighting for this day if the pace isn’t brutally pushed in the climbs anteceding the finish.

With 27.5Km to go you have the summit of the Col de l’Aire dei Masco, not a hard climb but it’s where those looking to make for a more selective finish have to push hard, right from the bottom.

The finale will have some tight roads inside the town of Manosque and it will also be uphill. Not easy, yet at the same time not brutal which will allow some sprinters to still be in contention for the win. 1.2Km at 4.2% is what they’ll face.

The Weather

A slight breeze from the southeast, it shouldn’t be much of an issue throughout the day, relatively quiet.

Breakaway Chances: 10%

Flat start won’t allow a strong group to get away easily, although many have lost time on the GC and have freedom to make moves, there will be many teams interested in chasing, specially as some didn’t even have the opportunity to fight for today’s stage.

The Favourites

INEOS – Which card will they go for? I’m calling Ethan Hayter. They raced exactly as I expected today, all-in for Viviani as it was his stage, the team are racing collectively very well and tomorrow is Hayter’s day, the uphill sprint is perfect for him, although I don’t discard the Italian from taking another one as he does seem to be showing great form.

Arnaud Démare – Honestly the confidence isn’t high. But hey, a peak form Démare is capable of incredible things, he must always be taken into consideration.

Bryan Coquard – Coquard like steep punchy climbs more, this won’t exactly be steep but it’s nevertheless a day that suits him. Cofidis absolutely have to make good work of what they have in hands, Coquard is in good form and is a serious contender.

Julian Alaphilippe – He’s got the form, don’t let anyone fool you. He’s shown in the past legs to win sprint finishes like this, and a late attack is equally a possibility. Alaphilippe doesn’t have the likes of van der Poel or van Aert to follow him if he feels like it, with bonifications on the line the Frenchman will surely hope of the stage win or at least to get some more time. And he’s got an in-form Devenyns around, and you know what happens when they are strong and together in hilly stages. 

Andrea Vendrame – One of the most interesting riders in the bunch. He’s essentially a lower-level Sagan in his peak days. Last year he won two races, both solo in hilly stages, however he’s as much of a sprinter as a puncheur in my book, just an overall incredibly well-rounded rider. Can he win? Quite possibly, if he’s got the form.

You will then have some more names who can surely perform on such a stage. From the sprinter side some will hope to resist and try to make good use of their peak power like Rudy Barbier, Pierre Barbier or Lorrenzo Manzin. And then from the puncheur/rouleur side, who can put on a late attack or perhaps have more capacity to go for the sprint you have Matteo Jorgenson, Aurélien Paret-Peintre or Sep Vanmarcke who can try to go for a surprise win.

Inside The Bus

This morning I talk to…

#64 Andrea Vendrame – It’s a big day here Andrea, our main chance to get a win with you. Aurélien will be protected, unfortunately we don’t have many guys to support you because of Covid but hey, we also don’t have any responsibility to work so it’s not so bad. You have good climbing legs, but here we bet on a sprint, the tactic is simple you stay in the wheels as much as possible until the final 2 kilometers. If someone is there who can help you position that would be perfect, we will ask the guys to give it 110%, Alaphilippe will be dangerous but you can’t try to match an acceleration of his if he attacks from far, try to follow Coquard or whoever INEOS pulls for, many sprinters will be suffocated in sight of the line but not you, I hope that you can make it relatively fresh and have a stronger kick than the rest.

#105 Raphael Parisella – Let’s see how the day goes, goal is breakaway. We have Alexis who could do well in front so perhaps we should work firstly to try and make sure he’s there, if you happen to be In front just try to survive for as long as possible, stage won’t likely be possible but we can get some exposure.

#97 Paul Ourselin – We have to protect our guys today Paul, you more specifically stay with Pierre and make sure he’s safe throughout the day, he’s looking good and very well within the GC fight. Lorrenzo has a small chance today but we will have some of the other guys looking out for him.

Prediction Time

⭐⭐⭐ Hayter, Alaphilippe

⭐⭐Viviani, Vendrame, Coquard

⭐Démare, Paret-Peintre, Vanmarcke, Ganna, Jorgenson

I was honestly going to say Alaphilippe as I am sure he will cook something up. However, I predict a win based on logic and sustained racing, I got today’s scenario exactly right so I’ll trust INEOS to take another one, this time with Ethan Hayter.

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Rúben Silva

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