Tour de San Luis 2016 – Stage 1 Preview
By David Hunter
El Durazno – El Durazno – 21km TTT
The organisers have decided to change things up a little in 2016 and introduced the first ever TTT for the event. An interesting choice, which will please quite a few of the climbers.
It’s an out and back circuit but the route is more challenging than the profile suggests. This is a day for big, powerful TT riders. No TT bikes means that we will see the peloton on the road bikes with tri-bars to try and get into an aero position. Being a TTT, it really ensures that one of the world tour teams will win. They have the best equipment and the most powerful riders, so time to look at the teams.
Tinkoff – Sagan, Hansen, Majka, Poljanski, Bodnar, Trusov.
Etixx – Contreras, Gaviria, Richeze, Sabatini, Vandenbergh, Wisniowski.
Astana – Nibali, Scarponi, Capecchi, Agnoli, Lopez, Kozhatayev.
AG2R – Peraud, Vuillermoz, Bidard, Daniel, Domont, Jauregui.
Cannondale – Brown, Craddock, Gaimon, Howes, Cardoso, Talansky.
Lampre – Cattaneo, Cimolai, Ferrari, Koshevoy, Mohoric, Polanc.
Movistar – Malori, N Quintana, D Quintana, Ventoso, Soler, Moreno.
You would hardly say that any of these teams have brought their top line TT riders, with the possible exception of Tinkoff. Both Bodnar and Sagan were part of their ill fated TTT squad in the World Championships. They crashed heavily, denying them the chance of competing for a top 5 slot. Over just 22km, expect to see a lot of these riders at the front of their team.
Both Cattaneo and Polanc rode for Lampre in the TTT World Championships. The Italian is capable against the clock, but Lampre seem to be carrying far too many poor TT riders to challenge for the stage.
Etixx will look towards their Colombians, Contreras and Gaviria. Contreras is excellent against the clock and sprinters are usually strong in this discipline. Despite not being with the squad for long, they have already won a TTT with Etixx. It was back in August of 2015, they won the Czech Cycling Tour. Also riding that day was Wisniowski. They clocked an impressive 51.8km/h over 20.4km. Add in sprinters like Sabatini and Richeze and Etixx will fancy their chances of taking the win. They certainly looked the best challenge to Tinkoff.
Astana won the TTT in Burgos with Scarponi, Lopez and Kozhatayev, scorching round the 13.14km circuit at an average speed of 53.2km/h, despite featuring a few climbs. They add in Nibali, Agnoli and Capecchi. The shape of Nibali will be very important to their chances of winning the stage. With an in-form Shark, they have a chance.
Movistar are the only other team capable of winning the stage. They are the only team with a world class TT rider: Adriano Malori. There is no doubt that the Italian will look to do most of the work, with the others helping out when they can. He won the ITT here in 2014 and 2015, clocking over 52km/h. If he is flying, he’ll put Movistar in a really strong position, even though he’ll be by himself.
It will be fun to watch which of the “big” teams finish last. I think it will be a straight fight between Lampre and AG2R, with the French boys taking the glory!
For the riders on the smaller teams it will be very important to limit their losses. It will be a worrying day for Dani Diaz, Sergio Godoy, Rodolfo Torres, Eduardo Sepulveda and Richard Carapaz.
Prediction Time
Tinkoff look too strong for me. Bodnar and Sagan are world class TTT riders and despite it being early in the season, this should be their stage.
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