Tour Down Under 2016 – Overall Preview

By David Hunter

We are back for another incident packed edition of the TDU. Despite being a relatively new world tour event(2008), it is a great race. The riders love it because the stages rarely exceed 150km, ensuring a relatively short day in the saddle. The weather also helps. No freezing European conditions, but beautiful sunshine. Lastly, no transfers makes for a very happy group of riders.

Us fans love it as it provides cracking entertainment. The popular stage finishes of Stirling, Campbelltown and Willunga Hill are becoming legendary. It really is a fantastic one week race.

Stage 1

The riders have their usual spin around the Barossa Valley, home of some lovely wine. The finish in Lyndoch is new but this is a standard opening stage for the TDU. A downhill run to the line should ensure a fast finish, perfect for the sprinters.

Stage 2

As usual, we get our stage in Stirling. 6 laps of a very challenging circuit, that teases the sprinters into believing they have a chance. To win here, you have to be more than standard fast man. JJ Lobato took a tremendous win in 2015 and he’ll hope to repeat this in 2016.

Stage 3

The climb of Corkscrew Road is back. The climb was omitted in 2015, but the organisers have decided to return. Cadel Evans won here in 2014 and Geraint Thomas in 2013, although the finish was slightly different. The climb is as close as you’ll get to alpine in these parts and will have a massive impact on the GC.

Stage 4

Victor Harbour is another popular finishing town but this stage has been made harder by making the climb crest much closer to home. The Norton Summit Climb is 5km at 5% and current Strava record is held by Damien Howson. Quite a few “quicks” will hope to get over the climb with the peloton, but the puncheurs will hope for a blistering pace. A hot day is bad news for the fast men.

Stage 5

The best stage of the race, Willunga Hill. Fast becoming Richie Porte’s favourite stage as he has won here for two consecutive years. The GC gets settled here!

Stage 6

A criterium stage around the streets of Adelaide to finish off the race. Another day for the sprinters.

Analysis

To win the Tour Down Under you require the following:-

1. A strong team.
2. Bonus seconds.
3. To be able to cope with hot conditions.
4. Excellent early season form.

Realistically, the GC battle comes down to two stages: Corkscrew Road and Willunga Hill. However, picking up bonus seconds during the other stages can put you in a great position. Each stage contains two sprint points, with 3, 2 and 1 seconds available. Stage finishes get you 10, 6 and 4 seconds.  Get yourself 20 seconds of an advantage going into Willunga Hill and you can ride a defensive race and limit your losses. It’s a tactic that has been used before by Simon Gerrans.

Despite the presence of Caleb Ewan, this race is all about Gerrans. If he is to win, he needs to pick up a sprint victory. We’ve seen this before from Gerro, I remember him beating Andre Greipel in Angaston back in 2014. Orica are also very good at keeping the race together to allow Gerrans to try and win intermediate sprints. He is much faster than all the other GC riders, so it’s a great tactic.

All stages have their opening sprint before 60km, making it very possible to control the race. Expect Orica to leave no stone uncovered in trying to find ways of getting Gerrans time on his rivals. Realistically, Gerrans will be eyeing up the “sprint” stages on days 2 and 4. Both occasions are very complicated for a normal sprinter to challenge and Gerrans will have Orica keeping the pace very high. They just need him on form. The Aussie RR didn’t really show us what form he is in, apart from the fact he finished it when others didn’t.

The Corkscrew Road climb will be the biggest point in the race for Gerrans and Orica. It’s a climb he doesn’t have a great record on. He lost 2:36 to Geraint Thomas here in 2013 and 15 seconds to Cadel Evans in 2014. In 2013 Gerro was suffering due to issues with asthma but in 2014 he simply couldn’t match the climbing power of Cadel and Porte, although he did eventually catch Porte. This climb is not Willunga Hill, it doesn’t suit the characteristics of Gerrans well at all.

Picking up bonus seconds in Stirling is going to be massive for Gerrans. If he does, he’ll be able to ride this climb defensively. He is also lacking his usual climbing domestiques: Meyer and Clarke. Orica have made the bold decision of drafting in Michael Albasini, a rider who has never competed in the TDU. They also have Daryl Impey, a rider who can cope with this climb. Luke Durbridge is another who will hope to help Gerrans try to cut any time gap on the 6km descent. Impey and Durbridge should go well but Albasini might find the heat too much.

After this stage, Gerrans can make up some time during stage 4. The climb so close to the finish will allow Orica to put the hurt on and try to drop all the pure sprinters. If they manage it, Gerrans will be favourite to take the win and another 10 seconds, putting him into a commanding position come Willunga Hill.

This is another stage where Gerrans will need some of his team to step up. Clarke and Meyer were both capable of covering some attacks or riding tempo up the climb. For Impey, it’s right on his limit and he’ll find it tough to go with any attacking riders. All the pressure will be on Albasini, a rider not known for his early form. Maybe they’ll just tell Albasini that he is still riding in Switzerland! Enough about Orica GreenEdge, there’s plenty of other talent here.

Leading the charge will be BMC. They have defending champion Rohan Dennis and Richie “Willunga Hill” Porte. Fairly easy to predict their strategy. Wait until Corkscrew Road and Willunga Hill and make their numbers count. With two outstanding climbers, they can afford to attack early, decimating the peloton and then attacking again. I think Porte will be their first attacker, leaving Dennis for the late attack. It will be up to the other teams to try and cover both moves, not a nice prospect considering the ability of both men. They lack a sprint finish, making it hard to pick up intermediate seconds. These boys need stage wins and they only have two opportunities. However, they hardly covered themselves in glory during the Aussie RR, leading some to speculate that they are a little off top form. You cannot gauge that from just one race, a crazy one at that. The race can certainly be billed as Orica v BMC.

Looking through the field, there are plenty of challengers for the top 10, but not many who can realistically challenge for the podium. Diego Ulissi was 3rd here in 2014, but I’m still not sure he’s back to the same level he reached, pre drugs ban. He does have Louis Meintjes with him and they could look to try the same tactic as BMC. The Italian does possess a fast sprint, having previously won in Stirling, so picking up bonus seconds will be on his agenda. Meintjes makes his debut for the team and he’s a rider that rarely disappoints. Saying that, the climbs here are power efforts, not really his exact style. I doubt he’ll be able to put out the watts required to follow Gerrans, Porte and Dennis.

Capable of big efforts is Rafael Valls. He was the surprise winner of the 2015 Tour of Oman, taking out some big names in the process. He hasn’t competed since the Tour de France but I’ve heard some big things about his Winter training. As far back as December the Lotto boys were doing “Willunga” training. During this, Valls was turning out some big numbers. He will be assisted by the experienced Adam Hansen and Thomas De Gendt. The Spaniard is capable of slipping under the radar of the big stars and might just surprise a few.

Ruben Fernandez and Dominico Pozzovivo return after a successful race here in 2015, finishing 5th and 6th respectively. I make no excuses, I am a massive fan of Fernandez. Such a huge talent, he is supported by an excellent squad: Sutherland, Oliveira and Jesus Herrada. Movistar have a long record of success in this race and I would expect Fernandez to push for a top 3 position.

Pozzovivo’s success depends on how he copes with Corkscrew Road. He’s not particularly well known for being great on short climbs, but he will like the hairpin bends. He is a rider that does like the early part of the season and he knows what to expect in this race. His lack of sprinting speed makes it very hard for him to win the race, but he will hope to be challenging for the top 5.

Team Sky are the only other squad that should really have a serious impact on the race. They look strong, really strong! With Thomas and Henao, they have two riders capable of competing. Thomas is a former winner on Corkscrew Road and he’s a much better climber these days. During the Winter he got married, so it will be interesting to see what shape he is in. He has spoken about changing his focus in 2016, towards stage races, so he should start here. He’s another that does carry good early form, he won the Tour of Algarve in 2015. The results on the road will determine team leader but it’s much easier in this race to have two leaders, rather than one. Sky look menacing and will look to try and test the dominance of Orica and BMC.

Other riders who will hope to challenge for the top 10 are:-

LL Sanchez, Petr Vakoc, Jarlinson Pantano, Simon Clarke, Rein Taaramae, George Bennett, Jay McCarthy, Cameron Meyer, Nathan Haas, Ryder Hesjedal and Nathan Earle.

Sprint Stages

With no Greipel, Kittel, Cavendish and Kristoff, some of the other sprinters get a chance to shine. Some even arrive with brand new lead out trains!

IAM – Tanner, Howard, Pelucchi.

Lampre – Mori, Kump.

Lotto – Dockx, Bak, Ligthart, Henderson.

Movistar – Sutterlin, Rojas, Lobato.

Orica – Hayman, Impey, Ewan.

Cannondale – Bettiol, Bevin, Wippert.

Giant – De Backer, De Kort.

Katusha – Lagutin, Tsatevich.

Sky – Puccio, Rowe, Swift.

Tinkoff – Rovny, Gatto, Blythe.

Trek – Van Poppel, Reijnen, Nizzolo.

Dimension Data – Van Rensburg, Farrar, Renshaw.

UniSA – Van der Ploeg, Von Hoff.

Drapac – Clarke, Brown, Jones.

Realistically, the sprint finishes should be contested between Ewan, Pelucchi, Nizzolo, Wippert and Lobato. Orica have not brought Mitch Docker to work with Caleb Ewan, but Daryl Impey, is a fine lead-out rider. It might take them a little while to click.

I am actually excited to see Cannondale, first time I’ve ever said that. Their train looks solid, especially Paddy Bevin, who is riding like an animal! Wippert has a good chance of taking home a stage win. The main rival for all sprinters is Matteo Pelucchi. The Italian really took a big step forward in 2015 and lines up with the experienced Aussie pair of David Tanner and Leigh Howard. Like Ewan, he’ll have to get used to a new final man in Leigh Howard. The same can be said for most of the sprinters here.

The sprints will be fascinating as these roads are often harder than the profile suggests. Throw in the heat and some of these sprinters won’t make the final selection. We’ll just have to wait and see! The race begins on Tuesday, Australian time, but the pre-race criterium is on Sunday. The People’s Choice Classic doesn’t count towards the overall TDU but certainly gives us an indication of the in-form sprinters.

Prediction Time

In one corner we have Orica. They know what it takes to win this race, but Gerrans isn’t great on Corkscrew Road. Then again, he could well take a stage before then and some crucial intermediate bonus seconds. If he leads going into Willunga, he’ll be very hard to beat.

In another corner is BMC. They have two great attacking options in Porte and Dennis. If one of them wins solo on the Corkscrew Road stage, it could be all over for the rest. Can Orica limit their losses that day? Will Albasini, Impey and Durbridge be able to survive with Gerrans and chase on the descent?

What will Team Sky bring to the party? Thomas and Henao are excellent riders but are they in form?

The “surprise” will certainly be Rafa Valls. Word is he’s lost a bit of weight and in fine form. He does well in hot conditions and will certainly get a little freedom from the big teams.

The overall will come down to the form and strength of Porte and Dennis. If on top form, one of them will take the title. If not, it’s Simon Gerrans. I have my doubts about the form and condition of Richie Porte. Without him on top form, Simon Gerrans takes the title.

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