Tour Down Under 2016 – Stage 4 Preview
By David Hunter
Norwood – Victor Harbour 138km
Stage 4 is another race to a familiar town. The race has finished many times in Victor Harbour, with a sprint finish just about guaranteed. Usually, the riders only have to concern themselves with the potential crosswinds. 2016 is a different vintage!
The addition of Crow’s Nest Road adds some spice to this stage. It’s 3.9km at 5.7%, with a maximum of 15%. Make no mistake, this is not an easy climb. The numbers might not sound too hard but the final 1.5km rises at around 9%. This is a chance to get rid of a few sprinters. With 20km remaining, the peloton will need to keep the pace high to stop any riders from re-joining. I love stages like this!
If there was every a stage for a breakaway, it’s this one. The problem is that this race is often decided by small margins, so teams want all the bonuses on offer. All it takes is a few teams to work and the break doesn’t stand a chance. That won’t stop some from trying!
With Pelucchi away home, we don’t have many pure sprinters left. Wouter Wippert might just fall into the category, but Cannondale also have Paddy Bevin. The Kiwi has a really fast turn of speed and would fancy his chances of another good result.
There are two issues that might stop us getting a sprint: the climb and crosswinds. Before we get to the climb, we have a perfect spot for some crosswind fun. I would expect to see Orica and BMC trying to create some echelons. This stage is just as important as Corkscrew Road and Willunga Hill. Do not underestimate it.
After a brilliant win on Thursday, Gerrans moved into the race lead. Jay McCarthy picked up 2 bonus seconds but I think he will have regretted expending so much energy for 2 seconds. Gerrans was clever, he didn’t go for the 2nd sprint and certainly had the energy required to win the stage and take 10 seconds. He leads McCarthy by 3 seconds an Dennis by 5. Orica would certainly like a slightly bigger lead heading into the Willunga stage. That means they go for intermediate sprints or try to win the stage.
Gerro proved to everyone that his form is good and he is looking fast. If Orica can remove riders like Nizzolo and Wippert, Gerrans has a good chance of winning the stage and taking another 10 seconds. If he does, the race is all over. It’s unlucky for Caleb Ewan, who’ll need to sacrifice his own chances for the good of the team.
It would be wrong of me not to mention the start of the stage too. The riders climb from the gun, something they really don’t like. Norton Summit is around 5km at 5%, but the riders actually climb for 10km at 4%. It will be a very fast start, expect a lot of riders to have some early difficulty.
Not only is there a chance of some strong wind but it looks like we could get some rain too. Rain and wind, at least the Belgians will be happy! The Aussies won’t be worried though, it’s still going to be relatively hot.
As we approach Crow’s Nest Road, it’s possible that the peloton will already be reduced. Once on the climb, expect it to slim down further. It is far enough out for some riders to rejoin, but it does depend on the attitude of the peloton. This would normally be a good day for a break, sandwiched in between two GC days, but the need for bonus seconds will make it hard. That being said, Orica will want some help.
Some sprinters will still hope to make try finish, but they need to be solid climbers. Like in all of these stages, Australian and Kiwi riders are at an advantage. Thanks to it being their summer, they are always further ahead of the European riders, in terms of preparation. It is no surprise that the stages have been won by Ewan, McCarthy and Gerrans. That is 3-0 to Australia. It would be no surprise to see them make it 4-0.
Which Europeans can challenge? Ben Swift, Adam Blythe, Marko Kump, Rojas and Lobato would hope to be fighting it out for the win. It really does depend on the attitude of the peloton.
The Southern Hemisphere should be represented by Gerrans, Henderson, Haas, Bevin and Jones. I would love to see Greg Henderson get to sprint out for the stage. He has looked smooth so far, but has been a little unlucky, ending up on the back of some dead trains. His form is good, a reduced sprint would be great for him.
Plenty of riders are far down on GC, so breakaway contenders are:-
Ruben Zepuntke, Manuel Boaro, Sean Lake, Jesse Sergent, Alexis Gougeard and Thomas De Gendt.
As we approach the last 10km, a small peloton increases the chances of a late break. You need to be super strong to succeed, someone like Jack Bobridge or Adam Hansen would have a chance.
Prediction Time
Orica will make this stage very hard. I think they will ride for Gerrans and he’ll take another stage win. Expect another amazing lead-out by Daryl Impey.
David Hunter
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