Tour Down Under 2017 – Stage 5 Preview

By David Hunter

McLaren Vale – Willunga Hill 151.km

It’s Willunga time!

Get ready for another fun stage climbing Willunga Hill. This is a mainstay of the TDU and a great stage for fans to watch. Two ascents of the hill really tests the legs of the riders, it’s a pity the GC seems to be already settled.

Weather

A nice sunny day for the riders, but beware the wind. The section between the two climbs is well known for being windy. The wind speed is only to be 11km/h, so, even though it is a crosswind, it will be very hard to split the race.

Tactics

BMC have a commanding lead in the battle for the ochre jersey. Richie Porte has a 20 second gap over Izagirre, 22 seconds to Chaves, 24 to McCarthy, 27 to Haas and 29 to Rohan Dennis and the other GC threats. Even with 10 bonus seconds for the stage win, it’s going to be incredibly hard for anyone to beat Porte.

Richie has won here for three consecutive years, but might have to change tactics. Instead of being attacking, he just needs to cover the moves of his rivals. As Izagirre crashed hard, his main threats will be Chaves, McCarthy and Haas. Also having Rohan Dennis will be a massive help. I would expect to see Dennis set a fierce pace up the climb, trying to deter any attacks. When somebody finally does attack, probably inside the last kilometre, Porte will just shadow the move.

The way the GC battle lies, it encourages a rider lower down to try and attack. With BMC only concerned with riders within 30 seconds of Richie, it does represent a terrific opportunity for someone else to take the stage. If they attack, BMC will not respond. It would be nice to see a new name take this stage.

Finale

3km at 7%. It doesn’t sound much, but these boys sprint up the climb. With the fans lining both sides of the road, it is a very special place to be.

Contenders

Richie Porte – can he make it four wins in a row? I think that Richie will sacrifice another win, instead, playing it safe and just following wheels. He already has a stage win, there is no need to jeopardise his ochre jersey for another win on Willunga.

Sergio Henao – we will never know if he could have matched Porte in Paracombe. Sitting 33 seconds behind Porte, he isn’t a massive threat on GC, but he is a threat to those that sit on the podium. He was 2nd here in 2016 and stands a good chance of taking the win.

Nathan Haas – the best I’ve ever seen him. I doubted he would be able to match the best here and he certainly has. He is very close to the podium and with his fast sprint he would certainly benefit from a slow ride up Willunga. Do not underestimate him, like I did!

Simon Gerrans – not been his race, but he does love this hill. This climb used to belong to him, until Porte stole it off him! He’s way down on GC and will certainly be given freedom to attack. Orica will have to decide if they let Gerro attack or make him wait and support Chaves.

Esteban Chaves – certainly not at his best, but still good enough to challenge on this climb. Will hope to move up and finish 2nd in the race.

Jay McCarthy – he certainly has improved since last year. Sitting in 4th place, he knows that Izagirre is very unlikely to survive the climb. McCarthy will be delighted with a podium spot and to secure that he just needs to follow wheels. Although, he is a very attacking rider, he might just attack and see what happens.

Michael Woods – we’ve barely seen the Canadian this week. He was 3rd here in 2016, but I doubt he’ll be able to match that performance.

Patrick Bevin – one of the riders that could benefit from freedom. Don’t forget that he too had to fight to rejoin the peloton, on the way to Paracombe. Despite that effort he finished just 35 seconds behind Richie Porte. The Kiwi was 10th here in 2016, finishing on the same time as 4th placed Diego Ulissi. He could be the surprise package.

Prediction Time

I want to see Simon Gerrans attack! Chaves can look after himself and after the Aussies winning 10 consecutive stages in the TDU, he is as good as any to make it 11. It’s been a quiet race for Gerro, expect him to make up for it here.

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