Tour Down Under 2017 – Stage 6 Preview
By David Hunter
Adelaide – Adelaide 90km
The race ends with the usual circuit race in Adelaide. It’s 20 laps of fast racing.
Forget what the profile is telling you, the hill is not as difficult as it looks. Montefiore Hill is 200m at 4%, having a KOM point at the top of it, is a bit of a joke really.
The KOM point is good news for Thomas De Gendt. The Belgian is joint on points with Richie Porte and would dearly love to win the jersey, I’m sure he will.
Most criterium races follow the same pattern. A smallish break goes away and gradually is brought back. Once into the last 5 laps, the sprinters start to move to the front and the pace begins to rise. The last 2 laps of usually done at a ridiculous pace, before a crazy sprint.
With all the sprinters trying to get into the front positions, getting boxed in is a real worry for most. To win you need to be fast, but carrying some luck is also important.
Contenders
Caleb Ewan – already sitting with 3 stage wins, making it 5 wins in just 2 editions of the race. You have to think that he has Robbie McEwan(12) and Andre Greipel(16) already in his sights. Still just 22, Caleb really seems to have stepped up a level from 2016. One issue though is that he is always good at the start of the year. He will have to be very carefully managed, so that he doesn’t have a dip in form in the next couple of months. Orica will be very happy with the work of Howson, Durbridge, Impey and Kluge. Ewan starts the stage as the massive favourite.
Peter Sagan – will he sprint? Certainly has the bike handling skills required to cope with the crazy finish. In the People’s Choice Classic he was leading out Sam Bennett and he fulfilled the same role in stage 1. Since then, Sagan has had two opportunities himself, finishing 2nd on both occasions. I’m not overly convinced he’ll be sprinting.
Sam Bennett – 2nd in the People’s Choice Classic and 3rd on stage 1. The Irishman can be happy with his work so far and I would love to see him getting another opportunity. With Sagan leading him out, the podium is all but guaranteed.
Danny Van Poppel – considering the lack of a lead out man, thanks to the illness of Owain Doull, DVP can be very happy with his work this week. With two podium finishes, he’ll be hoping for another chance to impress. He brings a level of consistency to Team Sky, something they lack when working for Viviani. It will be nice to see what Van Poppel can do in 2017.
Niccolò Bonifazio -just a 3rd place to show for his week, not a brilliant return. The criterium race suits him well, as he is good at maintaining position in the closing kilometres. Having a poor lead out train is something the Italian will have to get used to in 2017.
Edward Theuns – one word springs to mind when analysing his week, unlucky. He was in great spot in Victor Harbor, but Team Sky decided to drift across the road and he was blocked off. Then in Campbelltown, he was galloping up the outside, before Team Sky moved across the road again! The criterium is also good news for the Belgian, mainly due to the presence of Koen de Kort. The lead out man is an expert in this type of race and I expect him to put Eddy in front of Team Sky, meaning no blocking off! It would be great to see him round off the week with a visit to the podium.
Prediction Time
Has to be Caleb, again! Bennett or Sagan will be 2nd, with Theuns rounding out the podium.
David Hunter
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