UAE Tour 2022 – Stage 7 preview

By @EchelonsHub

The peloton completely underestimated the breakaway today as the front group managed to hold off the peloton in what was a pan-flat stage with no features where riders could be put into difficulty. Gazprom – Rusvelo again placed three riders in the breakaway and benefited from it, as a group of five (out of six) made it to the final kilometer with a gap and 19-year old Mathias Vacek won the final sprint for a career-defining win, beating Paul Lapeira and teammate Dmitry Strakhov at the line.

Positive: Gazprom confirming their intermediate sprint jersey with Strakhov and taking the stage win with Vacek, proving their wildcard.

Negative: It was absurd how a pan-flat stage with the most packed sprinter field we’re likely to see throughout the whole year saw a small group get away with the win. There will be many hot heads at the dinner tables tonight.

The Route

Queen stage. Pan-flat but with an exciting finish as the race tackles it’s ascent where differences can really be made, left towards the end. 

The only thing to take note in the stage is the Jebel Hafeet. 10.5Km at 6.4%, however with 7Km at 8% in it’s bulk it makes for a complicated ascent, specially taking into attention that this is a desert climb, on exposed and very wide roads where it tightens a lot.

An explosive climb, differences can be made, and the race will likely be decided here.

The Weather

A slight southwestern breeze throughout the day which should make much of a difference throughout the day. The heat will be present thought, with the temperatures reaching the 30’s, which may harm some riders.

The Favourites

Tadej Pogacar – The man to beat. Leader of the race, strong sprint and likely the best climber. Will the heat get to him? Maybe, maybe not. If not, it will be very hard to see anyone topping him, Rafal Majka is in great form and João Almeida will also be on the service of the Slovenian.

Adam Yates – A climb that is explosive and suits him perfectly, as will the heat surely. Ganna sitting in second place but he won’t be a contender on this stage, INEOS will likely not play tactical but instead have Luke Plapp blow up the group setting up for an attack by Yates on the rougher slopes of the climb.

Aleksandr Vlasov – Not the ideal climb for the Russian, but he is carrying some serious form and will be a hard man to crack. Vlasov is just 13 seconds off of Pogacar, the slightest of gaps can be dangerous and he will surely play with that tension, having Jai Hindley as a possible weapon if things have a start-stop during the climb.

Realistically, the favourites are these three riders, who seem to be a level above everyone else. The climb is sure to be attacked early on and the race exploded, unlike the tactical play we’ve seen in Jebel Jais where the main favourites could easily slipstream throughout the whole climb and stick together. Jan Hirt is the only rider I see willing to go all-in on chasing them, the likes of Ruben Guerreiro, Pello Bilbao and Romain Bardet should also have strong legs and be within the first places.

The likes of Geoffrey Bouchard, Gino Mader, Neilson Powless and Oscar Rodriguez are between the riders who finished in the peloton or near in Jebel Jais that I also expect to see ride a strong stage here, possible outsiders for a Top5 result and a strong GC.

Inside The Bus

This morning I talk to…

#43 Filip Maciejuk – The job here will be to help Pello mainly. Gino should do good in the climb, but in the mix for the overall Pello is the leader, and yeah Filip you don’t actually have to do much here, just get the guys a lot of water and food throughout the day, keep them out of trouble. During the climb things will explode fast, some other guys will protect Pello and then he’ll do his thing.

#172 Sam Bewley – Take a day off, it wasn’t an easy week, Damien will try something today but I’ll tell one of the neo-pros to help position him before the climb, there’s only one effort to do today and that’s the final climb.

#65 Ryan Mullen – Alright Ryan, it is the queen stage and although your work won’t be vital, you have to help keep Aleksandr and Jai protected throughout the day, and we have a few guys so we have no excuse, we absolutely have to enter the final climb in front so you make sure you hit the wind and cover for the guys as best as possible for as long as possible. And hey when you finish the stage, stay off Twitter.

Prediction Time

⭐⭐⭐Pogacar, A.Yates

⭐⭐Vlasov

⭐Hirt, Guerreiro, Bilbao, Bardet, Powless, Plapp, Hindley

It’s a hot take. I mean, everything that isn’t “Pogacar wins” tomorrow is realistically a hot take, to be honest. The climb is incredibly exposed and the heat will be tremendous, Yates will enjoy that and I reckon Pogacar not so much.

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Rúben Silva

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