Vuelta a Andalucía 2022 – Stage 5 Preview

By @EchelonsHub

It was a chaotic stage as expected, one of those days where a full broadcast would be great. The race was attacked at the opening climb of the day and a group of 15 riders went away and never again brought back as the pace did not slow down. Two riders managed to make the successful move in the final hilltops of the day, where plenty attacks happened, Wout Poels and Alexey Lutsenko went away from the group and battled for the stage win, with Poels being the strongest at the line, obtaining the race lead aswell.

Positive: Bahrain winning the stage, having big presence at the front, brilliant performance. Cepeda a good surprise, battling with the big boys.

Negative: Buchmann and BORA failing to put riders in the front group. Covi also not managing to be in the move and loosing the race lead, however that was not a big surprise as he isn’t a climber.

The Route

The final day of racing also presents a hard challenge, with another uphill start on the menu set to make for a strong breakaway of riders who haven’t reached their goals throughout the race, however this day won’t be as hard to put on an organized chase as it goes through some flat roads for once. 

With 39.5Km to go the race summits a 2.6Km climb at 8.4% average gradient, after some gentle climbing beforehand this may be a point of attack for those who have the less to loose and have the legs to make a brave move. However, much will be left for the final climb. 

Again, not a mountain but a more gentle ascent where bonifications are to play out. It’s a big-ring climb for 90% of the time, and in the final 500 meters the grades kick up inside the town of Chiclana de Segura and an explosive finale is expected to wrap off a week of tough racing in Spain. 

The Weather

Normal day with no wind to the mix.

Breakaway Chances: 40%

This is a day well suited to a breakaway. It’s late In the race enough that several strong climbers have lost time and have the freedom to attack, and at the same time it has a very hard start that should be very good for a strong group to set off early on.

On the opposite side you have a raging battle for the GC which is very tight and assures that several teams will be looking to attack the race. Tight balance.

The Favourites 

Bahrain – Wout Poels is in the lead and the whole priority is to now defend it. On their side they have the lack of bonifications, so all time must be made on the road, and they have the strongest team to be able to defend it. Do they have the right race leader though? If Poels struggles all will be lost, likely. Jack Haig is a strong contender.

Astana – They have to attack the stage pure and simple. Despite being down 5 riders, Tejada and Lutsenko can be used as pieces to make the race very hard for Bahrain, and Lopez realistically can wait until the final ramps as meaningful gaps can be made there, but he does need Poels to crumble in order to win the race.

Simon Yates – GC is now looking distant for the Briton, however a stage win is absolutely on the table if he has his best legs in the summit finish tomorrow. Explosive steep finales suit him.

Ivan Sosa – An outsider, however Sosa is sitting really well in the GC actually. Tomorrow the stage is decided on the climbs alone, so he has a chance to pull something off, and in stage two he showed great legs on the steep ramps.

Mauri Vansevenant – Mauri is the kind of rider who can thrive in this kind of day, it’s a mix between climber and puncheur stage, best of both worlds for the Belgian, looked mighty strong today and I suspect he’ll repeat it tomorrow.

BORA – For a breakaway likely, that is. Both Lennard Kamna and Emanuel Buchmann have freedom, have form and have no reason to sit quiet tomorrow at the start of the stage, they are big threats!

Some more riders have been on some great form, Cristian Rodriguez and Jefferson Cepeda are examples and they can benefit from a GC battle tomorrow between the other teams, Domenico Pozzovivo too under the right circumstances. You have INEOS aswell who have several cards, with Carlos Rodriguez the one to play for the overall but with the rest of the team likely free to pursue a win from a breakaway.

And although unlikely, the stage isn’t that hard, and I can mention some puncheurs as the finale won’t be too harsh for them. Riders like Alessandro Covi, Jhonatan Narvaez, Simon Clarke and Gonzalo Serrano are definitely men to watch for tomorrow if things don’t get particularly spicy.

Inside The Bus 

This morning I talk to… 

#31 Simon Yates – Simon, you’ve got some good form and we’re still in time to capitalize on it. We don’t have too much pressure here, some teams will surely attack, others will need to defend, we’ve got an intermediate spot which is good as it allows us to safe our guys some more. Ideally we’ll have at least 1 or 2 guys with you at the base of the final climb, and the idea is they’ll make it hard at the base, make it a hard effort so that in the final kilometer you can do your thing. There are no bonifications so entering you have to see if GC is possible or if you’re just going for stage, either ways both are hard but both are possible, I trust you’ll be good and thrive on those last steep gradients.

#5 Yevgeniy Fedorov  – Yevgeniy, today we have only Poels ahead of Miguel and we must attack the race. Now, it’s not going to be you who’ll smash the peloton, but every rider plays a key role, I expect you to be protect him and Alexey early in the day, when we reach the penultimate climb you hit the front with the guys in the wheel and push as much as you can, we need to make it hard from early on, attack with Harold and Alexey to try and put Bahrain under pressure. From there on you won’t be able to do anything more so just make sure you make it to the finish.

#106 Taco van der Hoorn – It’s not your day to perform, we’ll have Pozzo’s back here, he crashed the other day and didn’t manage to get in the right split on the climb when it mattered to stage win is the only focus now. Ideally you can help him a bit at the start of the stage, try to get a group going at the head of the race and drive the pace with him alongside, to win on direct confrontation will be very hard so we have to try a breakaway.

Prediction Time 

⭐⭐⭐ M.A. López, S.Yates, Kamna

⭐⭐ Buchmann, Haig, Poels, Sosa, Lutsenko

⭐Ca. Rodríguez, Cr. Rodríguez, Cepeda, Vansevenant, S.Clarke, Narvaez

I’ll hit the same key again. I’m convinced Lennard Kamna will attack and go for a stage win. It didn’t happen today then it can happen, and is more likely to happen, tomorrow.

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Rúben Silva

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