Tour de Suisse 2014 – Stage 9 Preview

By David Hunter

Stage 8 Recap

The break was surprisingly weak and relatively small, it was doomed from the beginning. The pace at the bottom of the Verbier was fierce and the peloton small as we approached 5km to go. Both Tinkoff and Belkin maintained a high pace, but it was Chaves who attacked first. Formolo tried to go with him, but failed. Kreuziger and Mollema, broke clear of the other favourites, but it was too late, and the talented, young Colombian, took another great win. Kreuziger was 2nd and Mollema 3rd. Tony Martin was very impressive, finishing with Rui Costa, only 14 seconds after Kreuziger.

GC situation:

1. Tony Martin

2. Tom Dumoulin 0:51

3. Rui Costa 1:05

4. Mathias Frank 1:14

6. Davide Formolo 1:47

7. Roman Kreuziger 1:50

Stage 9 Martigny – Saas-Fee 156.5km

D-Day for the GC!

The race ends with a difficult day in the mountains, with 1 HC climb, 2 cat 1 climbs and 1 cat 2 climb.

The opening cat 1 climb is 10.8km at 6.8%. We then have a descent and a short, flat section before the cat 2 climb. It is 6.7km at 6.5%. Again a descent, before a short, unclassified climb and then a long stretch in the valley. We then have the 2nd cat 1 climb, 8.6km at 6.9%, before a descent to the final climb to Saas-Fee. This climb is a monster, 16.8km at 5.4%. Not the steepest of gradients but the sheer length makes this very hard. During the climb, we have some very steep sections of 9%.

That’s quite a bit of climbing and I think the big question is, will Tony Martin survive? He has 1:05 to Rui Costa, but I don’t think this will be enough. He was great today, but that was just 1 climb. I think he’ll struggle, as the other teams will ensure that all the climbs are raced fast.

Tom Dumoulin will suffer the same fate.

So, who will win the GC? Here are the gaps to Rui Costa:

Frank 0:09, Mollema 0:36, Formolo 0:42, Kreuziger 0:45, Acevedo 1:02.

Rui Costa did not seem to be in the best of condition today, struggling to hang onto the wheel of Tony Martin, when he should have been attacking with the others. The same should be said of Mathias Frank. Kreuziger and Mollema will attack, but it will take some effort to take the required time back.

I would expect to see more teams represented in the break, than today. Most riders are no longer a threat on GC, and the lack of bonus seconds, coupled with a demanding profile should mean the break wins. Again, I would expect to see Swiss riders in the break, along with the usual suspects! Contenders for the break are: Schleck, Schar, Cardoso, Riblon, Gerdermann, Lastras, Albasini, Clarke and Christophe Kern. Who will Team Sky send in the break? They have Deignan, Dombrowski and even Swift. Despite being a sprinter, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Swift in the break.

We could see fireworks on the opening climb of the day, as it would put Tony Martin into trouble. If this happens, the break won’t stand a chance.

If we get a small group of GC riders at the end of the race, then the same riders from today will be there: Chaves, Kreuziger, Mollema, Frank, Rui Costa, Capecchi and Acevedo.

I think Eros Capecchi looked very good today, I think he could go well again.

Predicition time…

The racing will be crazy on the opening climb. The other teams will join together and isolate Tony Martin, very early. The German will lose the yellow jersey and Mathias Frank will win the GC. The stage will be taken by Roman Kreuziger. Although, he might just sneak the stage and yellow jersey!

If a break wins, then I say Cardoso.

David Hunter

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