Trofeo Serra de Tramuntana 2022 – Preview

By @EchelonsHub

With racing well under way we go onto the third of the Mallorca Challenge races, the one most suited to the climbers, where we should see more long-distance action and aggressive racing.

The Route

This is the day that perhaps suits the climbers the best. The Trofeo Serra de Tramuntana presents a proper early season test for those who thrive up mountains and for good reason as they will tackle one of the hardest (if not the hardest) climb in Mallorca, but they will have some riding to do before that.

You’ve got pretty much the same distance and climbing accumulate as the first day but it is split into more condensed areas, the first 35 kilometers are flat but from there on the scenery changes as we go into a few climbs and descents which will take the riders into the final 51 kilometers where the race will be decided.

Before it, the descent of the Col de Sóller is extremely technical, and dangerous if the roads are wet, and it immediately leads to the Coll de Puig Major, 14.7Km at 5.8%, not a brutal climb but certainly enough to be attacked. It is very constant with only a brief flat section close to the halfway mark, but the constant 6/7% gradients will make for an ideal platform for those with good legs. It summits with 33.3Km to go.

A small plateau section follows but it should just be enough to stabilize things. Gaps wil be set and most of the route until 7 kilometers to go, it won’t be very technical nor very steep so a solo rider won’t have an easy task to keep the advantage, the final kilometers are flat and on straightforward roads, whatever happens will depends on who makes it off the descent in front, it shouldn’t be meaningful but it’s important to note that the final few hundred meters have a small uphill gradient which may mix-up a bit more an eventual sprint.

The Weather

More of the same, nice weather and no wind.

Tactics

It’s going to be quite an interesting race, it isn’t too hard to smash the peloton but it is enough to create differences on the Puig Major, until then the previous descent may be important for someone looking to attack right in the bottom of the climb (with a stretched out peloton), but I think numbers will be the key here, as the climb summits quite far from the finish and unless there is a perfect group or a solo rider, it will be hard to see good collaboration all the way to the line. 

Several teams may have different riders near the front, Movistar and UAE are the most likely to have, however if we see for example a duo of Valverde and McNulty in front there’s no doubt that they can and will want to take it to the line.

The Favourites

Movistar – The team with the most depth, how they will play their cards I don’t know but they have home rider Enric Mas who will likely be motivated to perform, and the ever-fit Alejandro Valverde who has shown good signs of form in the first race, they can together form a very dangerous duo but they are not alone, having the likes of Matteo Jorgenson, Gregor Muhlberger, Gonzalo Serrano and Ivan Sosa who can all realistically be up there in the fight for the win aswell, question is if they’ll be capable of using their strength in numbers.

Brandon McNulty – An impressive 61 kilometers solo got him the first win of the season in the Trofeo Calvia. He’s got the form, the route will suit him very well, he does look indeed like the best option for the win on paper, Alessandro Covi also provides the team with another card to play in the right circumstances.

Emanuel Buchmann – Buchmann is usually a rider that starts off the season strong and always in Mallorca, his issue is that he needs to be alone after the climb in order to win as sprinting isn’t an option, however the German showed good signs on Trofeo Calvia and will alongside Mas be the strongest climber on the startlist.

Lotto Soudal – Tim Wellens and Harm Vanhoucke to be leading, the latter is best suited to this day as the long climbs are his specialty, as for Wellens he can survive them for sure, if he’s close enough to the front of the race after the summit he can be dangerous, but he needs a really good performance to go for the win.

Warren Barguil – Regularly underated, I feel like Warren Barguil still has some of his best legs and although he missed the cut on his only race of the season, he sprinted right behind Matthews in the peloton. Tomorrow is a day that suits him, Arkea look good with Elie Gesbert and Lukasz Owsian as support or possible contenders, so they will have a saying aswell.

Furthermore you have the likes of Aurelien Paret-Peintre who had a storming start to last season and Nans Peters who on good form could really make an impact, the likes of Ben Hermans and Jesús Herrada who occasionally show glimpses of brilliancy, and are normal names in the winning sheet of lower level races, youngsters Kobe Goossens, Filippo Zana and Santiago Umba, Spanish Eduard Prades and José Félix Parra, who should be leading Caja Rural and Kern Pharma respectively who can do a strong result under the right circumstances, and who knows, Michael Matthews is on the startline and has climbed very well in the past, but BikeExchange is likely steering more towards a Damien Howson leadership.

Inside The Bus

This morning I talk to…

#145 Peio Goikoetxea – See if you can get in the breakaway Peio, there won’t be much to fight for, whoever isn’t in the break will stay in the pack and protect Mikel and Luis, but it’s mostly in their hands to see if we can get a good result here.

#79 Arnaud de Lie – Arnaud we have two cards today, you’re here to get some racing and experience and you’ll have to be getting some bottles for Tim and Harm mainly, they have a real chance to win so it’s important that we set everything up as good as possible, for as long as you resist In the peloton.

#195 Warren Barguil – Warren, big day today. Perhaps Pollença will suit you better, but a race is a race, we don’t have the responsibility here but we have a good group of guys, Movistar will be trying to deal blows and many others will follow, your job is to stay in the wheels for as long as possible, we want to keep at least Élie near the front so if he’s feeling good he will have a green card, as for you ride smart, pace the climb out and after the summit try to get collaboration going on with whoever you’re with, you’ve got a good sprint and not many will be considering you as the man to beat.

Prediction Time

⭐⭐⭐ McNulty, Valverde, Mas

⭐⭐ Buchmann, Barguil, Muhlberger, Wellens

⭐Serrano, Jorgenson, Sosa, Jesús Herrada, Hermans, Vanhoucke, Zana, Howson

Early in the season it’s always hard to predict, I think McNulty will be hard to beat but Movistar will find away, being the home rider and a premier climber, I think Enric Mas will be able to go over the main climb solo, or with a group where he is capable of taking the win.

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